CNI News

16 December 2024

According to the current political situations of Myanmar, businesses could improve in 2025, said businessmen. 

Efforts are being made to hold a general election in 2025 and some EAOs in northern Shan State where battles are breaking out are paving the way for ceasefire and peace talks, there could be territorial stabilities there, they pointed out.

Because there is a potential for a decrease in armed conflicts in Myanmar, business activities will improve, U Aung Pyae Sone, an economic commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing exports (Naung Naung)

" The country has lagged far behind amid ideological differences for over 3 years. The government found it difficult while the people had a nightmare as well. The nightmare will come to an end in 2024 and the country will be better in 2025. Mainly, it's necessary to have peace and stability to improve the economy with new ideas and good cooperation. Several EAOs have expressed that they will discuss. After meeting and discussing with a really positive attitude without secession, if we can carry it out, 2025 will be a constructive year. Moreover, because plans are being made to hold a general election. After the election, if the Tatmadaw can arrange to make a government that the people have really wanted, the country will be better, I consider." he said

However, Myanmar's economy would not be encouraging because of internal conflict, natural disaster and scarcity of basic commodities, released the World Bank on 11th December.

According to the Myanmar Economic Monitoring Report, the economic forecast for March, 2025 is minus 1 percent.

While seeing somewhere inside Bogyoke Market

Strategic thinking was needed to improve Myanmar's economy, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" Businessmen speak according to their political views. If the perspective is different, the answer is different. I want there to be strategic thinking. It's right that the election will be held. But the country can't go like this. I accept the election as a political exit. But a strategic thinking is needed." he said.

Myanmar's economy did not improve in 2024 and almost all the border trades were suspended; because the trade by sea only was relied on, import and export industries did not improve as expected.

As there are considerations that the political situation may re-improve due to the election, foreign investments have increased in some sectors mainly fuel oil, EVs and garment, according to businessmen.

CNI News

16 December 2024

Although China is obviously providing political assistance to the State Administration Council (SAC) in order that armed conflicts taking place in Myanmar could be solved, it is useless if the SAC cannot utilize it, military and political commentators told CNI News. 

China is putting pressure on EAOs to stop waging battles because battles are severely breaking out in the territories within its reach.

If the SAC could not make proper use of the China's assistance timely, the assistance would be useless, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" It depends on how the SAC will utilize the China's assistance. If the SAC could utilize it timely, it will produce good results, I think. Otherwise, the assistance will be useless if the SAC cannot make proper use of it. If the assistance from a foreign country can be utilized timely, it could produce a lot of good results." he said.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese PM Li Chang were meeting

Although the SAC has received diplomatic support and weapon technologies from China, because it is facing economic and financial crises, it won't be able to carry out to win good results, said Zachary Abuza, an international columnist.

Because the SAC can control only the 40 percent of the area of the country at present, it was trying hard to regain control of territories it had lost before the election, it didn't succeed, he said. 

That China put pressure on the MNDAA and the TNLA in northern Shan State did work.

Because China urged the MNDAA, the MNDAA announced the unilateral ceasefire on 4th December and the TNLA announced that it would discuss peace with the SAC as well.

The person giving the help needs to know how to help, and the person receiving the help also needs to know how to use it, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process told CNI News.

During the meeting between China and Myanmar

" If the recipient cannot use the help, it will be useless. U Than Myint Oo, a scholar, had said that 'A lot of the help we get is in the form of, "You do this, we'll help you if you do that." What we want is, we will do that. Please help us for that. Otherwise, it won't be beneficial to both sides." he said.

While battles were severely taking place in Bahmo and Mansi Towns, Kachin State, the delegation led by General N'Ban La, leader of the KIO/KIA went to China and discussed with the Chinese authorities.

The discussion was likely because China wanted to put pressure on the KIA to stop battles as well as to reopen the border gates to import rare earth from Kachin State, considered political commentators. 

China said that it didn't want to see the chaos in Myanmar and it would help the election and the peace process.

CNI News

16 December 2024

The Arakan Army (AA) would not be able to solve the refugee problem on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News. 

The AA was able to capture the Border Guard Police Unit-5 on 5th December and had been able to seize control of the entire Maungdaw Town, released the AA on 10th December 2024.

So, because the AA has already controlled the Myanmar-Bangladesh border on the Myanmar side, questions regarding how the bilateral refugee problem will be solved has emerged. 

It was necessary for the Bangladeshi government to take the AA into account in solving the border refugee problem as well as to talk with the AA, expressed Bangladesh.

While seeing a refugee camp in Cox Bazaar District, Bangladesh

If the Myanmar-Bangladesh border areas were not under the control of the Myanmar government, Bangladesh would suffer from the refugee problem more and the AA was not in a situation that could solve the border refugee problem, chairman of the AFP, Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" If the refugee problem is solved, the two governments probably would be able to solve. As soon as the Myanmar government can't control the border region, Bangladesh will suffer the refugee problem more. There can't be a situation in which the negotiation with the AA can be conducted in the international law. The AA can't solve the refugee problem at all. It has anything to do with the recognition of international organizations. The AA is not a country. Because the AA is able to negotiate with the current government, if the AA becomes like the UWSA and Myla, in collaboration with international organizations, the government, the AA and the Bangladeshi government might be able to negotiate. And Bengali people have their armed groups such as the RSO and the ARSA for their liberation. So, confrontations have emerged." he said.

The AA launched offensive to Maungdaw Town on the Bangladeshi border starting from 13th November 2023 and battles broke out between the AA and Bengali armed groups - the ARSA, the RSO and the ARA.

While seeing the AA force

He hoped that leaders of the AA would solve the issue of Rakhine State in a constructive way, chairman of the Pa-O National Federal Council, Khun Myint Tun told CNI News.

" In my opinion, leaders of the AA are tackling these issues only after extensive consideration. So, they will carry out in constructive approaches, I hope." he said.

After Maungdaw has been under the control of the AA, the AA might build administrative mechanisms there, but considerations could not be made that the war has ended; the Tatmadaw could launch offensives, said political commentators.

Battles are severely taking place between the Tatmadaw and the AA in Ann where the West Command is located, Taung Goat and Gwa townships. Battles are severely taking place between the Tatmadaw and the AA in Rakhine State and many locals have fled to safety. 

Due to the battles, houses, schools, monasteries, religious schools, bazaars, roads, bridges were damaged while locals are facing shortages of food, medicine and fuel oil. Moreover, the Bengali issue which took place in 2007 cannot be solved up to now.

CNI News

16 December 2024

The self-determination which EAOs are demanding was so dangerous that secessions from the country could arise, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

It was necessary to clearly understand the meaning of the term "right to self-determination" and to what extent it would be imposed; according to the current situation of Myanmar, if the right to self-determination was granted, it would make the secession path emerge, he said.

" There are two parts here. There were always problems during peace talks. As soon as right to self-determination is enacted, they have been on the path of secession. According to the current situation, it's very likely to secede. Self-administration means self-governing your own region through Region or State level. It's no problem. If they have the right to enact laws in parallel with the 2008 Constitution, there is a huge problem. So, self-determination has a lot of problems. It's necessary to know clearly how the term ' right to self-determination' will be imposed. Otherwise, secessions from the country can arise." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Ethnic armed groups pose for photos after the conference

When efforts were made to sign a non-secession agreement in the previous dialogues, there were some who refused to sign it, pointed out political commentators. 

But at present, some EAOs said that they wouldn't secede from the country to establish new countries in their statements.

In the history of revolutions in the past, only secession was called for and in the current revolution, EAOs were fighting for the right to self-administration, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst told CNI News.

" Some people said that the country could be torn apart, which is not correct kind of. Now any organization doesn't demand that they will secede. In the past, Kachin and Karen demanded they would secede. They wanted to build new countries. But now, they are demanding the right to self-determination. They say they are fighting for the right to self-determination." she said.

While EAOs were holding a conference

Because the Myanmar Tatmadaw was rapidly losing many remote areas across the country to revolutionary forces, central control is almost certain to fragment, released the International Crisis Group (ICG) on 30th May 2023. 

This process of separation is not conducive to the establishment of a federal union, but a challenge only, according to the ICG.

There are two kinds of self-determination and one is external self-determination that allows secession and the other, internal self-determination that doesn't allow secession; the self-determination that is currently being discussed is internal self-determination; the 2008 constitution doesn't allow secession, according to those who are participating in the peace process.

CNI News

14 December 2024

The National Unity Government should change the attitudes and policies tantamount to an organization of the National League for Democracy (NLD), U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News. 

The members of the NUG needed to prove through work, said Acting President of the NUG, Duwa Lashi La at the meeting of the NUG held on 10th December 2024. 

The NUG should change its standing as an organization of the NLD and ministers who didn't come back to Myanmar should be asked to resign, said U Than Soe Naing.

" The NUG should reduce and eliminate all insignia of office in the form of a ruling government. Up to 16 ministries are not needed. Just four or five ministries are sufficient. More important is to win the war. Things that can win the war must be mainly carried out. I don't mean to abolish the NUG. I want them to form the national unity alliance and then to focus on winning the war. In doing so, the NUG should change the attitudes and policies tantamount to an organization of the NLD. After the national unity alliance government form a large military force in order to increase military activities all over the country. The NUG ministers who will serve online only should be asked to resign." he said.

While seeing Acting President of the NUG and PDFs

The National Unity Government should no longer remain a distant government according to the current political situation including the China's pressure to rebuild strength domestically, Acting President of the NUG told his ministers on 26th November 2024. 

A revolutionary government cannot be revolutionary from afar; if revolutionary leaders ordered from afar without being within the country, it would not beneficial to the revolution, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

" A revolutionary government cannot revolutionize from afar or online. Revolutionary governments are best when they are one with the people. If revolutionary leaders are not on the ground or within the country, it's impossible to do much good to the revolution." he said.

While the NUG PM Mahn Win Khine Than, member of the NLD

The NUG should be formed as a government of all EAOs within Myanmar. 

The NUG should make reformations to mainly carry out military activities, pointed out political commentators.

At present, the NUG was not able to organize all EAOs and reach agreements with them for the establishment of a future federal union; Protesting against the People's Defense Force, the People's Administration Organization and the People's Security Force under the NUG has increased; the NUG has been weak in controlling on them and members of the NLD and supporters of the NLD have dominated the NUG, pointed out political commentators.

There are 17 ministries in the NUG and 34 ministers and deputy ministers.

CNI Interview

14Dec ember 2024

Among the six self-administered regions in Myanmar, the Naga region is the least developed one. 

As the Naga region is a mountainous area, not only there are needs, the people in the region are facing shortage of school teachers, having to pay the tax to armed groups and delay the flow of goods. 

Regarding the above-mentioned situations, CNI News interviewed the chairman of the Naga National Party, U Shu Maung.

CNI News: What's the current situation of the Naga region?

U Shu Maung: For the time being, there are no battles. But the people in the region are worried that battles will resume. The rest are operating normally.

While seeing the chairman of the Naga National Party, U Shu Maung

CNI News: What's the current political situation of the Naga region?

U Shu Maung:  The politics has been dead kind of because battles are breaking out across the country. But as the election will be held in the near future, the people in the region are interested in the election with the hope that we can get to a good path, rather than living in constant anxiety and misery. But it doesn't mean supporting or protesting. They expect that the election might be a better situation.

CNI News: How are they carrying out the matters regarding education?

U Shu Maung: Schools under the Ministry of Education are operating normally. We are facing an insufficient number of teachers as a rule. But it's getting worse in the current political situation.

CNI News: We have heard that Naga armed groups are collecting money. How will it be solved?

U Shu Maung: Any armed group whose name contains ethnic or not is fighting for their belief will collect the money. The people do not dare not to do so. But government departments have the authority to say so as not to do so. But I don't think any department will say so. 

If the amount of money collected becomes a burden on the people,  political parties or traditional organizations or social associations save the situation by coordination and negotiation. 
Territorial instabilities are caused not only by battles but also by social conflicts. The people obviously don't want to pay the tax to any organization. But in a situation where they have to pay as a tax, they understand it.

While seeing the Naga region

CNI News: We have heard that youths are recruited by force in the Naga region. What's the situation about it?

U Shu Maung: We also heard that. But I don't know exactly why they are recruiting for the military service or for another reason or because of crimes.

CNI News: We heard that the border gates in the Naga region have been reopened. What could make the difference?

U Shu Maung: Re-opening the border gates is good news. It's good too that the border gates with China have been reopened. The flow of goods from the mainland is very delayed. Transportation is very difficult on the road or waterways between Homalin and Khamti in the Naga region as well as between Homalin and Monywa. If you order a product, you'll have to wait at least six months to get it. 

So, we have to depend on the goods coming from India. After we met and talked with the Indian authorities about it, India re-opened the border gates. We have to thank India. 
If there are no security threats or transportation is not very delayed, the flow of goods can be smooth. The transportation is delayed due to the political situation of the mainland. The goods from India can reach our region within a few hours. It will be beneficial in the long run.

While seeing the Naga region

CNI News: In comparison with other regions, the Naga region is facing a lot of difficulties. So, how have the organizations in the Naga region intended to solve the difficulties?

U Shu Maung: The main difficulties here are higher prices of rice, fuel oil and salt. Fuel oil is essential to transportation, travelling and other businesses. Tihe government should intervene because the prices are so high. 

Moreover, there are social difficulties such as health problems. For example, if villages come and tell us that they are in trouble due to a disease, we help them after informing officials concerned to receive aid. 
Moreover, if a school hasn't been open, why hasn't it been open? We stand by carrying out checks and balances.

CNI News

14 December 2024

Nagaland Self-Administered Region, upper Sagaing Region lagging behind in development should be developed through tourism industry, pointed out businessmen.

As Naga people in the Naga region have unique culture and traditions as well as ways of life, they could attract tourists and income could be earned from the tourism industry for the regional development and for the country.

However, it was difficult to do business in the Naga region because of difficult transportation and the needs for electricity. 

However, those who will invest in the Naga region were given special privileges and the government should develop the region, U Aung Pyae Sone, an economic commentator, told CNI News.

" Naga region is unique in Myanmar. If we will make the investment in this region, what we can mainly make is the tourism sector. The lifestyle and culture of Naga people in the region are unique. So, this region can attract not only people within the country but also foreigners. So, using this region as a greenland, if we can plan travel and tours, we can make the region develop while we can also earn national income. The Naga region lags behind in development, but the region is stable and peaceful at present. How to arrange to make tourists come to the region depends on the arrangement of the union government. The union government needs to persuade businessmen to benefit them by making the investment in this region. If they make the investment, the Naga region could develop." he said.

While seeing a village in the Naga region

A reason why the Naga region lagged behind in development was because the region didn't get enough budget under the management by Sagaing Region. 

The Naga self-administered government has several limits in managing rural development. 

Only if good policies could be laid down in the division of budget, could the Naga region be developed, chairman of the Naga National Party (NNP) U Shu Maung told CNI News.

" In the division of budget, the Naga self-administered region is under the management of Sagaing Region.  The government of the Naga self-administered region has many limits in carrying out rural development. As a regional government, it has to pass Sagaing Region. There are things to be done, taking lessons from the division of budget and the division of power. if good development policies for the development of the Naga region can be laid down, a sufficient budget could be issued, I think," he said.

The roads that can go to Leshi, Lahe and Nanyun Towns in every season need to be built so as to make the transportation smooth in the Naga self-administered region.

Naga self-administered region is the least developed one among the six self-administered regions in Myanmar and in the banking system, the region has to depend on the Myanma Economic Bank.

CNI News
13 December 2024

Political problems will be solved through political means based on federalism that has right to establish new states, said in the joint announcement by the Pa-O National Federal Council (PNFC) and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO).

The statement was released on the 75th anniversary day of the Pa-O national revolution on 11th December 2024.

They would actively cooperate to win a political consensus for the end of military dictatorship and the establishment of a democracy and federal union, said in the joint statement.

Moreover, they would solve the political problems through the political means based on the establishment pf a federal union that allow the establishment of new states, as members of the federal union, said in the statement.

Except for the protection of the Pa-O people and national races, the PNFC and the PNLO avoided the armed conflicts between the Pa-O people or and other nationalities as able as they could and finding a peaceful solution through negotiation was used as much as they could, said in the statement.

While seeing Col. Khun Thurein and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The PNLO/ PNLA, the PNFC and the PNO/PNA which are Pa-O armed groups are demanding to designate the Pa-O State, gathering the Pa-O self-administered regions and other regions. Although the matters regarding the emergence of new states were discussed in the peace talks among the government, the Tatmadaw and EAOs, any agreements have not been reached.

At present, the PNLO and the PNFC are fighting against the PNO/PNA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Shan State. On the other hand, the PNLO is divided into two groups and one is led by Col. Khun Okkar and the other led by Col. Khun Thurein. The group led by Col.

Khun Okkar is the PNLO-NCA/S and it is an NCA signatory. However, the group led by Col. Khun Thurein supports the Spring Revolution and is fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News

13 December 2024 

The Pangsau Pass, India-Myanmar border gate in the Naga self-administered region, Sagaing Region which had been closed for seven years due to armed conflicts will be officially opened by India, according to Naga locals. 

The Pangsau-India border gate reportedly is closed every so often. At present, with the approval of the India-Myanmar Joint Border Market Committee, the border gate will be opened on 15th December. 

Because battles broke out between a Naga armed group and the Indian army near the Pangsau border gate, the border gate has been closed since 2017, the chairman of the Naga National Party (NNP), U Shu Maung told CNI News.

" I've heard that gate will be opened on 15th December. The gate is closed every so often. At the last time closing gate, a battle broke out between a Naga armed group and Indian forces deployed near the gate and the Indian army suffered a lot of casualties. So, the gate has been closed since then." he said. 

While seeing the border market in Pangsau

Because the gate will be opened, the people from the border area of the two countries are making preparations for their shops. 

The people in Pangsau and Nanyun Townships, Naga administered region have to depend on the Indian commodities and during the closure of the gate, the people faced shortage of food ane extremely high prices.

Although Pangsau locals had to use the commodities coming from Myitkyina and Tanai Townships, Kachin State during the closure of the gate, Pangsau locals have faced difficulties again because battles are breaking out in the two townships.

If the border gate was opened by India on 15th December, it would be convenient for the locals, said U Shu Maung.

While seeing the Naga region

" When the border gate has been closed, Pangsau locals have to depend on the goods coming from Myitkyina, Tanai and Shin Bwe Yan. But now as battles are breaking out in these regions as well, there is no transportation. The goods carried through difficulties are extremely expensive while locals don't earn enough income. At that time, because India has closed its border gate, it's worse. But if the border gate is opened on 15th December, because there will be a lot of trade in the border areas, it will be very beneficial to locals." he said to CNI News.

Locals from Nanyun and Pangsau in the Naga self-administered region sell ginger and foodstuffs at the border market and buy rice, edible oil and fuel oil sold by the people from Nampong, India. 

So, if the border gate was re-opened, it would help support the livelihoods of local people. 

The border gates between the Naga self-administered region and India are Lahe-India border gate which is directly connected with Nagaland, the Leshee-Sumpra-Manipur Border Gate and the Pangsau( Naga)-Nampong (India) border gate.