CNI News

12 January 2024

Myanmar's 2023 export value from border trade was reduced than 2022 by several hundred US dollars in 2022, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce. 

Although Myanmar's export value through border trade with China, Thailand, Bangladesh and India was more than 4,5000 million dollars in 2022, export value of Myanmar through border trade in 2023 was over 4,100 million dollars only. Export value through border trade was reduced by 400 million dollars.

Due to the devaluation of export value like that, foreign currency earnings and the economy of the country may be affected, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" Export is more important in a situation like this. Export is important in a normal situation. According to theory, export is the engine of growth. Generally, there are two economic policies. One is export promotion and the other is import substitution. Import substitution is just to protect dollars from leaving for foreign countries, but doesn't mean getting foreign currencies. Export is more important. If a country can't export, it won't be convenient for its economy. Only if the country exports, can it get dollars. If the export continues to decrease, the dollar crisis will be worse." said U Htay Aung Kyi.

While trucks are stranded

Dollars could be received mainly from export only and foreign investments could not be dependable at present, said economic analysts. 

In the same way, asking expatriate citizens to pay the income tax depends on the participation by everyone concerned and if the export was affected, the country's economy would be affected a lot, they pointed out.

The decline in Myanmar's exports is not only due to unrest at the border areas but also due to some activities restricted by the Central Bank, pointed out economic analysts.

In order to promote exporting, if the Central Bank provided service to the relaxations required by business sectors and necessary renewals, it would be better, U Thet Zaw, an economic analyst, told CNI News.

" Regarding the export policy, there must be rules and regulations that are unnecessarily strict. Recently, there have been proposals submitted by some fisheries. When they export fish, The cash in/out takes more than 45 days. In a situation like this, because you have to deposit designated export earnings within 30 days, fish exporters can't export." he said.

While trucks are burning

The amount of Myanmar's export value that was reduced from the border trade in 2023 was 157 million dollars from the China-Myanmar border trade, 178 million dollars from the Thailand-Myanmar border trade, over 9 million dollars from the Bangladesh-Myanmar border trade and over 5 million dollars from the India-Myanmar border trade.

There were fewer battles along the border trade in 2022 and if battles broke out, it didn't take long. So, they didn't impact the border trade. However, in 2023, armed conflicts were severely breaking out along the border trade routes and it did affect the border trade, they pointed out.

Because the regular channels that were used for the border trade in the past cannot be used due to territorial instabilities, although new channels have been allowed to use, they cost a lot more, said traders.

CNI News

10 January 2024

The Tatmadaw would not kind of allow Lashio to be captured, U Thet Zaw, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News. 

In Lashio, there is an Air Force Base as well as a regional military headquarters.

" The Tatmadaw won't allow Lashio to be captured. In Lashio, there is an Air Force Base as well as a regional military headquarters. But I still don't know how they will defense. I haven't heard Kutkai has been captured. I heard that they had to give Laukkai as a compromise. But I don't know about it exactly. They don't release news exactly as well. Chinese mediation is a bit important. And ASEAN comes and negotiates. I don't think it will be very effective." said U Thet Zaw to CNI News.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA,TNLA and AA) launched Operation-1027 on 27th October, 2023 in the northern part of Shan State and was able to capture most of the towns including Chin Shwe Haw, Kunlong, Kon Kyan, Namkham, Mang Ton, Nangsan, Laukkai and Namtu in the northern part of Shan State and has controlled the China-Myanmar border trade route.

The current problem arose because the political problem was not solved by political means, but now it was too late to solve the political problem with political means, U Kyi Myint, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

" Rather than whether having too much or too little power, tactics and public support is important as well. The main is public desire. The Tatmadaw forces have surrendered by the hundred in Rakhine State. Soldiers' families also have difficulties in their livelihood. Prices have risen sharply. Soldiers' wives find it difficult to make ends meet. In fact, solving the political problem by military means was wrong. But now it's too late to solve the political problem by political means. In my opinion, They (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) will capture (Lashio) if they can." he said.

Lashio is the capital of northern Shan State and very important to the China-Myanmar border trade. Moreover, the Tatmadaw's Northeastern Command is located in Lashio and the command is mainly responsible for defense, security and military affairs of the regions in northern Shan State.

CNI News

10 January 2024

Myanmar's Navy Chief Admiral Moe Aung, commander of the Eastern Command and some division commanders were transferred, according to the sources from the military headquarters in Naypyidaw. 

Admiral Moe Aung was transferred to the post of Advisor for National Security Affairs.

Admiral Moe Aung has been replaced with Chief of Staff (Navy) Lieutenant General Zwe Win Myint. In the same way, Commander of the Taunggyi City-based Eastern Command Major General Myo Min Tun was transferred to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and he has been replaced with Major General Zaw Min Lat, rector of the National Defense University.

The Director of the Office of the Directorate of Security-related Printing Works that prints and publishes money paper and lottery tickets was transferred to the reserve force and the director has been replaced with the Deputy Director reportedly.

Moreover, Deputy Commander of the 22nd Division Col.Kyaw Soe Lin has been transferred to the post of Commander of the Division (66) and Deputy Commander of the Operations Command Headquarters (8) has been transferred to the post of Commander of the Division (55), according to people close to the Naypyidaw military headquarters.

CNI News

9 January 2024

ASEAN Special Representative will meet with EAOs that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in Naypyidaw, Col.Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson of the Peace Process Steering Team (PPST), told CNI News. 

The meeting has been planned to hold on 10th January and their five NCA signatories were to attend and he did not know whether other organizations would attend or not.

" What I can confirm for the time being is that our five NCA signatories will meet with the ASEAN Special Envoy, a new official for our country from Laos. I don't know exactly what agenda will be discussed. After Laos takes the ASEAN chairmanship, it is also the political scene where we can see for the first time. It is also the introductory meeting based on the five point consensus of the ASEAN about how to overcome the current crisis of our country. And it might be a meeting where views and attitudes will be exchanged." said Col.Saw Kyaw Nyunt.

When Cambodia took the chairmanship of the ASEAN, as the ASEAN Special Envoy, Mr. PRAK Sokhonn met with NCA signatories in Naypyidaw on 1st July, 2022.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with political parties on 6th January, 2024

The NCA was signed by the Karen National Union (KNU), the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), the Chin National Front (CNF), the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), the New Mon State Party ( NMSP) and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU).

According to political landscapes that changed after 1st February, 2021, KNU, CNF and ABSDF reduced their participation in the PPST and have not attended the peace process meetings.

The Special Envoy of the ASEAN will meet with the political parties on 12th January and discuss a general election that will be held by the State Administration Council, U Thet Zaw, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

" We welcome the ASEAN Special Envoy who will come to Myanmar in relation to the election for the peace of Myanmar. In other words, the ASEAN becomes interested in the election. I want the election that will be held to be internationally recognized. If the election was internationally recognized, a dignified government could be formed. We can't say exactly about the peacemaking. Frankly speaking, China also has influence over some ASEAN members. We can't say how much influence China has on the current ASEAN Special Envoy." he said.

Due to the armed conflicts that arose after 1st February 2021, the country's politics, peace, economy, health, education sectors are facing crises. Some EAOs, political parties, the ASEAN and international organizations are trying to solve the conflicts.

CNI News

9 January 2024

Although the demand for Myanmar watermelons from China has increased after the New Year, Myanmar farmers are making a loss because the quality of their products were damaged due to hard transportations reportedly.

The Kyin San Kyawt Gate, a main place where Myanmar watermelons were exported to China cannot be used for the time being because there are no territorial stabilities'. 

So, Myanmar watermelons are being exported through Myla and Loije border trade camps which take 10 days to take the watermelons to China. When exporting the watermelons through Myla, not only it takes long, the cost is also high. 

While seeing a watermelon plantation

The transportation charge for a 16-ton truck is 250 lakh kyats and farmers are losing about 1000,000 kyats, Ko Thitsar, a watermelon farmer from Sagaing Region, told CNI News.

" The price of watermelon has declined in the domestic market and so has in China. The main reason is because the quality has declined and the transportation is difficult. For a truck that can hold 16 tons of watermelons, its freight cost is about 7,500,000 kyats until it reaches Myla. A total investment is about 250 lakh kyats if the value of watermelons and other expenditures are added. Due to the delay on the way, the watermelons are damaged. So, farmers lose 10 to 15 lakh kyats for a truck of watermelons." he said.

If the watermelons are exported through Kyin San Kyawt, they can reach the place where the watermelons are sold in China within two days. But as exporting through Myla takes 10 days, the quality of watermelons is damaged and the price also has declined reportedly.

While seeing trucks loaded with watermelons

So, watermelon farmers are sending their products to the Yangon Market. However, because it is not convenient to sell watermelons in the local market alone, some watermelon traders and farmers are taking risk to export watermelons to China. If the transportation continues to be difficult like this, the watermelon market will not recover, Ko Kyaw Win, a watermelon trader, told CNI News.

" The farmers who grew watermelons on an acre of land last year grow them on ten acres. So, the watermelons are abundant. To send the watermelons to the market, transportation is important. If the transportation is bad like this, we can't expect the watermelon market to be better." he said.

Sugar cane and coal are on China's list of priority goods. Watermelon is not on China's list of priority commodities although China is buying Myanmar watermelons. So, watermelon trucks from Myanmar are entering China with the wait-in-line system. 
So, the farmers and traders have to wait long to sell watermelons. As having to wait long like that could damage the quality of the watermelons, farmers and traders should be careful when exporting the watermelons, pointed out market analysts.

As there is still no way to improve the current traffic situation, the watermelon farmers should grow, depending on the local market, suggested traders.

CNI News

9 January 2024

He wanted to protect the peace and stability of the Chinese-Myanmar border area with all his might, said Lt-Gen Yar Pyae, the Union Minister for Home Affairs and the chairman of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC).

He said the above during his online meeting with Wang Xiahong, Minister for Public Security of China. 

" I want deeper bilateral cooperation for the rule of law and security and want to protect the peace and stability of the Chinese-Myanmar border region with all his might." said Lt-Gen Yar Pyae.

Mr.Wang Xiaohong replied that China has always viewed and implemented the China-Myanmar relation with a strategic view, the Chinese Embassy stated. 

Wang said that China has always viewed and developed China-Myanmar relations from a strategic height, and was willing to work with Myanmar to implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, and to comprehensively deepen cooperation in law enforcement and security.

 Wang also expressed China wanted to collaborate with Myanmar to crack down telecom and online fraud, cooperate on key cases, maintain security and stability in border areas, protect Chinese personnel and projects, and continue to promote the building of a China-Myanmar community with a shared future.

At present, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) and its allies are waging Operation-1027 and trying to capture the Tatmadaw camps and townships in the northern part of Shan State. 

So, the battles are severely breaking out between the two sides. In order to be able to stop these battles, the SAC's NSPNC and the Three Brotherhood Alliance met and discussed on 7th, 8th and 9th December for the first time and on 23rd and 24th December for the second time. 

But as no agreement was reached, a third meeting will be held on 7th, 8th and 9th January, 2024.

On the other hand, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Sun Weidong and delegation arrived in Myanmar and met with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 5th January, 2024.

CNI News

8 January 2024

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) met with leaders of the political parties that have been registered with the Union Election Commission (UEC) in Naypyidaw on 6th January, 2024. 

The chairman of the SAC told the parties at the meeting that the ultimate goal of the SAC government was to hand over the responsibilities of the State to the winning party after a free and fair general election was held.

The Tatmadaw was working hard with the people's efforts in cooperation with the Myanmar Police Force for the reduction of internal armed conflicts and it was necessary to proceed with a public security system that contained everyone in order to achieve peace and stability throughout the country so that the country would be able to move towards a democratic system, he said.

" We will act from all sides in order to hold a dignified election and I believe all the parties that attend this meeting believe in the democratic system. All party members need to be the core of democracy just as they are the core of their parties. We need to be able to use the party's strength in a beneficial and correct way for the State. Moreover, party members also need to participate in order to maintain peace and stability in the country" he said.

The SAC was encouraging the development of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). In doing so, he wanted the parties to cooperate as much as they could. 

He believed that the parties that would compete in the coming general election would be able to promote educational, economic and social development of their regions concerned, he added.

" As the pre-election process, we are conducting the census-taking and because the population census that is collected by the Ministry of Immigration and Manpower has had a basic list, it can be more accurate and correct. Census taking every ten years is an international standard that should be compulsorily conducted. Only if it is carried out, can the ballots be correctly registered. So, the parties need to participate." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

In the last elections, the winner-take-all system was exercised and regarding the application of proportional representation system, the discussions would be held with political parties and ethnic groups. Moreover, relating to the amendment of the constitution, they would carry out amendments to amend the laws that should be amended. In order to amend it, they would perform through the Hluttaw channel, said chairman of the SAC.

" While preparations are being made in order that the election can be successfully held, armed terrorist activities are barriers. We are making efforts to achieve stability and peace as soon as possible. The election must be a politically dignified one. The political parties need to participate with the spirit of doing good for the country." he said.

The meeting between Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and the political parties on 6th January, 2024 was attended by chairmen and vice chairmen from 39 political parties.

CNI News
7 January 2024

Undocumented foreign migrant workers in Malaysia might be arrested until around March, philanthropic organizations in Malaysia told CNI News.

 Arrests have been conducted with a lot of force since mid December, 2023 and the arrests like this might exist until around March, Ko Thet, chairman of Lovely Heart Philanthropic Youths Blood Donation Organization, told CNI News.

" Some migrant workers arrived in Malaysia recently for many reasons. Some have applied for residence permit books. But they haven't got the books yet. Some have applied for the books. But they don't have enough money. Some can't apply for the residence permit books because they have no jobs and they can't afford. All of them must be careful. You have to ask those who were in Malaysia earlier than you. In my opinion, many arrests probably will be around March." he said.

Arrests like this were rampant for the first time and they looked like a war and were scary, Myanmar citizens in Malaysia told CNI News.

While the arrests are currently being conducted, many Myanmar citizens are entering Malaysia through Thailand illegally daily. So, he wished them to stop entering like that, Hmwar Michael staying in Malaysia told CNI News.

" The period during which registration can be made has expired. There are arrests daily. I don't want undocumented workers to come to Malaysia through illegal channels. I want legal workers and the UNHCR card holders to work and stay in harmony with their environment." he said.

Myanmar nationals are among the most arrested and they have been arrested by the hundred reportedly.

Moreover, among those arrested were permit card holders and  they could be released sooner or later depending on their employers.

If Myanmar refugee card holders were arrested, because the UNHCR's reply whether those arrested were real refugee card holders was delayed, the refugees were staying in the detention camps, according to the people who are helping in the affairs of refugees.

CNI News
7 January 2024

The questions why the fuel crisis that fuel stations in states and regions are experiencing fuel shortages have not been resolved are arising. Although the prices of fuel are high, fuel shortages are still taking place.

Although the Central Bank of Myanmar sold the US dollars last month, as the amount of money that was sold was insufficient, the US dollar was scarce and fuel stations have no ability to store reserve fuel, the fuel crisis is going on taking place, an economic analyst on condition of anonymity told CNI News.

" Mainly, the fuel stations are not able to store reserve oil. It's necessary to store reserve oil. Now, as soon as the fuel arrives, it is sold at once. If the oil tankers arrive a bit late, the fuel is no more in the market. Although the Central Bank sells dollars, it's not enough. The bank sells around 10 million dollars. But  the fuel is imported for 1.5 million dollars each day. So, fuel importers have to find export earnings and then import fuel. But as you know, Chinese border trade has been affected at all. Thai border trade also has been affected very much. Those who import fuel are gradually finding it difficult to get dollars. They are kind of importing fuel for each day only." he said.

There was a shortage of petrol and diesel at some petrol stations in Yangon a few days ago. But fuel has been available again at present. In Yangon, the current price of diesel is 2,300 kyats per liter and that of 92 gasoline, 2,405 kyats per liter.

Fuel shortages occurred in the past due to price restrictions in selling fuel and foreign currency price regulations, U Thiha Paing, founder of the Via Logistics and Supply Chain, told CNI News.

" When fuel is being extracted from ships, there may also be fuel shortages. During the time between the entry of ships, there may also be fuel shortages. Moreover, due to the traffic jam, there may also be fuel shortages. Only if you pay the money, will you get the fuel. The main problem is that the price is unstable. There is a price issued by the fuel supervisory committee. There is a price you have to pay really when you buy the fuel. We have to wait for the decision between the two prices. So, there is also a delay. There is a price-adjusting problem between the price of buying in advance and the current price. So, there is a delay. Mainly, the problem is related to the logistics and supply chain. The previous fuel shortage was because of the dollar price problem." said U Thiha Paing.

Due to the government's control of the dollar in the past, there was a shortage of dollars. And then the fuel crisis arose. Although the dollar control has been relaxed at present, because export earnings through border trade is affected with territorial instabilities, there is still a need for dollars.

Moreover, because the dollar control has not been unconditionally relaxed at present, the fuel crisis might continue, said economic analystes.