CNI News

26 March 2024

Although the Arakan Army (AA) might be able to attack the Tatmadaw until 10th April, whether it could cease fire before Thingyan or not should be watched, said military and political analysts. 

The AA was built on 10th April, 2009 and it will be 15 years old on 10th April, 2024. So, the AA might attack towns or cities in Rakhine State as much as it could. And then, the AA might start a ceasefire after 10th April, pointed out some military analysts.

The AA might find it difficult to attack Sittwe and Kyaukphyu that have outlets to the sea, said a politician.

" It's difficult for the AA to capture Kyauk Phyu.The AA is attacking Kyauk Phyu just like it is doing Ramree. But Kyauk Phyu has an outlet to the sea and so has Sittwe. Although Ann Town is close to the mainland, there are PDF troops between Ann and the mainland. The AA can't capture Sittwe and Kyaukphyu kind of. Moreover, the Rakhine people in the south do not have a strong Rakhine spirit. So, militias have been formed even in Thandwe. Historically, northern Rakhine people only had a stronger Rakhine spirit. Southern Rakhine people don't have a very strong Rakhine spirit. That's why the NLD won in the election in the southern part of Rakhine State. To the south of Kyaukphyu, Rakhine people have no Rakhine spirit anymore." he said.

While seeing a crossroads in Rakhine State

After the battles between the Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army broke out again on 13th November, 2023, roads and waterways were closed. 

After the Operation-1027 waged by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA,TNLA and AA), the AA has been able to capture Pauktaw, Kyauktaw, Myebon, Mrauk U, Taungpyo Letwe, Minbya, PonnaGyun,and Ranbye in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa and Samee Towns in Chin State.

The AA was unlikely to stop its attacks until he achieved his objective, which he thought, U Kyi Myint, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing the AA force

"The AA has surrounded all the towns or cities they want. Now only Sittwe is left. The AA is attacking Ann as well. I think the AA will surround and the AA troops have occupied around Ann. The AA has said that it wouldn't stop fighting unless they achieve their goal. In a situation they have surrounded, they might calculate militarily how much will be given and how much will be received. Now, Sittwe can no longer move. Almost no one goes to offices. Government employees go to office one day a week only. The administrative mechanism in Rakhine State has been broken." said U Kyi Myint.

Battles are currently breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA in Sittwe, Ann and Kyaukphyu Townships. The AA has said that it would carry out to win the confederation status, its political ambition and it might implement its administration, legislation and judiciary reportedly.

The three northern allies (TNLA, AA and MNDAA) and the State Administration Council held peace talks for the fourth time in Kunming City, China at the Chinese mediation from 1st to 3rd March, 2024 and agreed to ceasefire. However,  the AA said that the agreement was related to the northern part of Shan State.