CNI News

24 January 2024

Military and political analysts are reviewing about what the Tatmadaw can do next because it has lost many military camps at the current battles. 

The Tatmadaw lost most of the townships in northern Shan State and several townships in Mandalay Region and Rakhine State during the Operation-1027 that was launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) on 27th October 2023.

If the country was in a state of chaos, it could not be restored and the economy would not improve as well, U Thet Zaw, a political analyst, told CNI News.

When the AA has taken control of a Tatmadaw military camp

" To tell you frankly, we consider whether the Tatmadaw really has enough strength because the rear does not send reinforcements to the front and if the soldiers in front can't fight, they retreat. This kind of pattern happens every now and then. Frankly speaking, we are even worried about the defense of the country. There is only the Chaung Nakhwa camp that the Tatmadaw can defend. All the rest had to retreat. I don't know why the fighting ability of the Tatmadaw has declined so much. If the country is in a state of chaos, it can't be restored and the economy won't improve. The country's situation may get worse." said U Thet Zaw.

The State Administration Council could make a change on 31st January 2024 and the Tatmadaw `could work to stabilize the territories, said a politician. 

The Tatmadaw has retreated from some of its military camps in Chin, Rakhine and Kayah States at present and revolutionary forces are capturing some towns.

The Tatmadaw might restrict food, medicine and travels, Saw Law Kapaw from the Karen Peace Support Network (KPSN) told CNI News.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council

" For the time being, threatening the villages, shooting with heavy weapons, waging air strikes, cutting off food, medicine and transportation - these are the works currently being done by the military council," he said.

The SAC is experiencing military and political crises for the time being and depending on what kind of change will be made on 31st January, the good and the bad of the country would be found.

Saying the NLD was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, the Tatmadaw toppled down the NLD government on 1st February 2021 and has taken power after declaring the state of emergency.

The state of emergency will be 3 years old on 1st February 2024 and another six months might be extended.

CNI News

24 January 2024

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) told the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP/SSA) not to do matters such as money collection, military and administrative affairs, including recruitment of troops in Namkham Township where there have been peace and stability in a letter sent to the SSPP by the TNLA. 

The letter was sent on 21st January 2024 to the head of Ally Affairs Department of the SSPP.

The TNLA stated in its letter that its community administrative groups reported that the SSPP was working to force the local Shan people to form a village security force and to serve in the military for the SSPP. 

The people in Namkham area have been free and independent now. and the TNLA that drove off Burmese military dictator's soldiers has taken the responsibility in order to make Namkham Township stable and develop in accordance with the will of the people in the township, said in the letter sent to the SSPP.

While seeing the letter sent to the SSPP by the TNLA

" So, the TNLA makes a special request to the SSPP, a brotherhood ally, not to proceed with matters such as money collection, carrying out military and administrative affairs including recruiting troops in Namkham Township where there have had peace and stability." said in the letter.

If the SSPP went on carrying out those matters against the people's desire, because unwanted problems would arise between the two brotherhood allies, the letter of request was sent. said the TNLA.

" Most of the people living in Namkham Township are Shan people. So, the SSPP carries out administrative issues. It's not wrong. And the SSPP has been active in Namkham since before. The TNLA has wanted the port in Sellant of the SSPP. After controlling Namkham, the TNLA wants to get a Chinese border exit. Sham people won't accept to be ruled by Palaung. The fighting might take place between the two sides sort of." 

said a Namkham resident.

The TNLA has been participating in the Operation-1027 that was launched on 27th October 2023 and has controlled Namkham, Nansang, Mang Ton, Mong Ngor, Namtu, Kutkai and Theinni. 

However, the SSPP has been active in Namkham and Theinni Townships since before and has increased its military strength in the townships reportedly.

CNI News

23 January 2024

A battle broke out between the Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLA/PNLO) and the Pa-O National Organization (PNO) because the negotiation did not go well, Lt-Col Khun Tun Shwe from the PNO, told CNI News. 

During the battle, a troop from the PNLO was killed and several troops from the PNO were injured, he said, adding that the PNLO set fire to the ammunitions they were carrying.

" Their cars came from the north. I didn't know where they came from. When they arrived in the Naung Yang Gate, they didn't stop. So, we chased them. We exchanged fire with them at San Phoo Village near Hopong. A troop from them was killed. Some of our troops were injured as well. Next day, negotiation was conducted. But it was inconvenient. And then, they set fire to the ammunitions that they had carried. Explosions took place from which many houses of the village were burnt down." said Lt-Col Khun Tun Shwe to CNI News.

While seeing the PNO force

Although CNI contacted the PNLO to find out its position regarding the destruction of weapons and ammunition, Maj Khun Min Thein from the PNLO did not answer the question, but he told that the battle took place. 

A convoy with five motorcars in which people who put on the PNLO uniform were checked and a small fighting took place. And then weapons and ammunitions exploded.

After that, 27 houses of San Phoo Village were burnt down, the State Administration Council stated on 21st January 2024. Relevant authorities are carrying out to help the people affected by the fire and armed groups needed to have mutual respect, Lt-Col Khun Tun Shwe told CNI News.

While seeing the PNLO force

" They are an NCA signatory and they might see that we are an illegal group. But they need to inform us that they will pass our gates. There should be mutual respect among armed groups that we had negotiated and agreed to it. Because they didn't want to be checked, the problem like that happened." he said.

Three forces including Major Khun Min Thein from the Liaison Office of the PNLO in Taunggyi were summoned and met by the Tatmadaw on 21st January 2024. 

The PNO was allowed to govern the Pa-O region which was designated as Special Region-6 after peace was achieved with the Tatmadaw.

After that, Pa-O Autonomous Region that contains Pinlaung, Sesai and Hopong Townships has been ruled by the MNO.

PNLO/PNLA is an NCA signatory and has been active in Sesai, Hopong and Mawkmai townships in Shan State. Mawkmai is designated as the headquarters of the PNLO.

CNI News

23 January 2024

The Ministry of Labor agreed to send MoU workers to Thailand by Yangon-Don Muang Flight, the Myanmar Overseas Employment Agencies Federation (MOEAF) told CNI News. 

Because the Yangon-Myawady-Maesot route has not been convenient for the time being, the Kawthaung-Ranong route is being mainly used to send MoU workers. As air fares were currently skyrocketing, this route was less expensive, U Myat Thu, general secretary of the MOEAF, told CNI News.

" An air ticket for the Yangon-Kawthaung trip was about 1.5 lakh kyats before, but now it is about 4.5 lakhs. If you come to Bangkok from Kawthaung-Ranong, it is very distant. But if you want to go to southern Thailand, going from Kawthaung-Ranong is nearer. Yangon-Bangkok flights are cheaper."

If there were agencies that wanted to send MOU workers by Yangon-Don Muang flight, they could already submit it , However, there are not any agencies that have submitted so far, according to overseas employment agencies. 

Workers who will go abroad through the MoU

Although agencies have requested to allow them to send MoU workers by Yangon-Don Muang flight for quite a long time, officials from the two countries agreed to allow at the Myanmar-Thailand director-level meeting.

Because there were several airlines that operate the Yangon-Don Muang flight, there was no possibility that the price of air ticket will increase exponentially, U Win Myint, managing director of Lucky Overseas Employment Agency, told CNI News. 

" There are three or four airlines. So, the ticket price won't increase so much. Charter flights can be used through the Ministry of Labor. Air tickets can be booked for 50 or 100 people on the same day. If you can't send all the workers in one go, you have to send twice." he said.

Submissions to send MOU workers via the Myawady-Maesot route have been temporarily suspended since December 19. At present, Htoh Kaw Koh-Kyaw Koh Road and Yangon-Kawthaung Ranong flight are being used to send MoU workers because New Asia Highway cannot be used for the time being.

Battles have been breaking out since December, 2023 at the Myawady-Kawkareik New Asia Road, a route where there was a main flow of goods at the Myanmar-Thailand border.

CNI News

23 January 2024

That the State Administration Council has extended six months to the state of emergency will expire on 31st January 2024 and if the SAC was not able to create a new political landscape, Myanmar economy would be more affected, reviewed economic and political circles. 

If the SAC extended the state of emergency for another six months, the current political instability could be worse and the economy also could decline more, said businessmen.

However, if the SAC was able to tackle the peace issues successfully during another six months after forming an interim government, the economy could be a little better again, U Thet Zaw, Myanmar economic commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing the manufacturing industry

" We'd like to see a political change. If another six months are extended like before, instabilities will be worse, we have estimated. We want to see a government that can change the situations. An interim government might not make the economy much better. But if it was able to tackle the peacemaking issues successfully, the economy could be recover a bit after re-opening the border trade. It takes at least two years for the economy to recover. It's necessary to invite foreign investments. But about two years after an elected government comes to power, we can do so, we think." said U Thet Zaw.

At present, because the political problem is affecting the economy, only if the political problem could be solved first, the economy would be convenient, pointed out businessmen. 

If the political problem was solved, international relations could be better built and international investors could believe more to invest in the country. 

Moreover, instead of exercising the way to improve each sector that was used by successive governments, it was necessary to better the whole economic system, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

While seeing the garment industry

" If the political problem is solved, international relation will be convenient. Economic environment will better again. And then we must have the confidence of investors. People can work again. In relation to SMEs, successive governments have thought about things relating to SMEs and so have hotel and tourism since our childhood. Thinking like that doesn't get to the root of the problem. The basic reason is that the economic system must be improved. Whether the political system is good or not, politics must be stable." said U Htay Aung Kyi.

Economic experts within the country are currently teaching in universities and other facilities and their role has been weak to promote the economic development.

It was necessary to assign economic experts not only in universities but also in departments and other places. Moreover, economic academics and political scientists needed to take part in the trends, pointed out economic analysts.

CNI News

22 January 2024

If the Central Bank of Myanmar wanted expatriate Myanmar nationals to use legal money transfer activity more rather than using illegal hundi system, money transferred should be managed freely, banking experts told CNI News.

At present, expatriate Myanmar people have used the hundi system more and the price of foreign currencies are always going up, so the money transferred from foreign countries should be freely managed by the owners, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" When you conduct a transaction, you'll want to manage it without worrying freely. People work only when there is an incentive. Myanmar migrant workers have to work hard to earn money abroad whatever they are blue or white collars. If the banks want the workers to transfer money from them, they need to give incentives to the workers. Incentives contain allowing the remitters to freely manage their money. If so, there'll be no problem." he said.

While exchanging Myanmar kyats to dollars

In the past, when the sailors transfer money to Myanmar from abroad, they were given car permits. At present, although the government was not able to issue car permits to them, if they are allowed to freely manage their money, they can use legal remittance system rather than illegal hundi activity.

" It should be performed systematically to earn the national income from the money transferred by the workers abroad. For example, how should the government provide what kind of service to the worker who who will transfer money? Is the amount of money transferred equal to the amount the families will receive? It depends on them." said U Min Oo, in charge of labor affairs from the Foundation for Education and Development (FED) to CNI News.

Checks and arrests are being conducted by the Central Bank with a view to making illegal hundi agents die out. In most cases, there are illegal enterprises. So, when trying to reduce or put down illegal enterprises, economic ideologies should be considered, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

while seeing the Central Bank

" In relation to the informal sector, it's necessary to consider both to make them benefit and to make the country benefit instead of restricting them. when approaching like this, public administration idea alone cannot be reliable. Economic ideologies should be considered. Informal sector is a kind of economy. An economic ideology is needed to make those included in the informal sector benefit. An administration point alone cannot be reliable." he said.

Because illegal hundi enterprises have existed since many years ago, it doesn't seem to be effective, pointed out businessmen.

CNI News

22 January 2024

The State Administration Council (SAC) has formed the committee that will take action against posting pornographic materials, fake news and  political attacking to social network (internet) according to the law reportedly.

Deputy Minister for Home Affairs takes responsibility as the chairman of the committee, and Deputy Minister for Transport and Telecommunication, as vice chairman, and Deputy Director General (1) of Myanmar Police Force, as secretary, and Chief of Criminal Police, as associate secretary, and Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Transport and Telecommunication, as associate secretary (2).

While monitoring internet users

Moreover, Director General of the Ministry of Law Affairs, Director General of the Ministry of Information, a delegate from the Office of the Chief of Military Security Affairs, and  Director General of the Central Bank of Myanmar, and Deputy Director General of Special Investigation Department, the Ministry of Home Affairs, and Head of the Department of Crime and Law, Myanmar Police Force have take responsibilities as members reportedly.

The committee will form a team that contains technological experts and monitor posting fake news, disinformation, pornographic materials that are inconsistent with Myanmar traditional culture and politically attacking description to internet around the clock.

Regarding the above-mentioned issues, posting, live broadcasting, sharing and encouragement will be technologically detected and the culprits will be taken action against effectively in accordance with the law, said in the statement.

CNI News

22 January 2024

Although commodities cannot be transported to the northern Shan, Rakhine States and Myawady trade camps, highway freight rates are not affected, according to the Myanmar Highway Freight Transportation Services Association.  

The road to the China-Myanmar border trade gates in northern Shan State and the one to the Myanmar-Thailand border trade gate, Myawady, could not be used due to the battles, but because commodities could be transported to China and Thailand through southern and eastern Shan State border gates, Myanmar's flow of goods were not damaged, U Kyin Thein, chairman of the Myanmar Highway Freight Transportation Services Association, told CNI News.  

while seeing trucks

"This is open season when flow of goods is strong. Trucks go from Yangon to Myla or Tachileik in southern and eastern Shan State. Border trade is operating. Because we can't go to the northern Shan State, we have to go to Myla in the eastern part of Shan State, a border gate trading with China. Trading with Thailand is conducted through  Kengtung and Tachileik. All the goods that will go to northern Shan State must be firstly carried to Myla in eastern Shan State. When the goods are sent to Myawady, if it's impossible to transport by big trucks, we have to use light trucks." he said.

Although there is no flow of goods with northern Shan State, Rakhine State and Myawady as a border trade, the flow of goods has been regular in other Regions and States. Because the present period is the open season, highway freight is convenient, a highway freight entrepreneur, told CNI News.

while seeing trucks

" At present, highway freight is being conducted. Highway trucks are going to southern and eastern parts of Shan State, and Yangon, Mawlamyine, Yay, Myeik, Dawei, Pa-an, but not to Myawady. We can go to Myitkyina and Monywa as well. And we go to Shwebo, Pakokku, Magway, Yangon, Pathein. Now that it's the open season, we are going in this way until May. As soon as the rainy season come, only 50 percent of trucks go and come." he said.

Highway freight cannot be stopped. If a route was closed, another usable one would be used, said businessmen.

If regular routes were closed, there might be exorbitant increase in freight charges because other routes might be delayed and there might have difficulties on the way. However, if highway freight stopped, although commodities would be abundant in some places, there would be areas where goods are scarce and expensive.

CNI News
20 January 2024

Battles might break out severely in Sagaing and Magway Regions after a ceasefire between the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State, said military and political analysts.

When it was over two months since the Operation-1027 was launched on 27th October, discussions were held from 9th to 11th January after which the Tatmadaw and the Three brotherhood Alliance agreed to temporary ceasefire.

The People Defense Force (PDF) troops who went and joined in the Operation-1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance would come down to the mainland and there was also concern about the election, U Thet Zaw, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing the BNRA force

" Because the ceasefire has been conducted in northern Shan State, PDFs who went and joined in the Operation-1027 will come back to the mainland. To tell you frankly, PDFs don't like that a civilian government will arise. The NUG/CRPH, behind them, will push the PDFs so as not to enable the State Administration Council (SAC) to hold the election for their existence. So, it will be worrisome for the election. When the PDFs went and joined in the operation, the fighting in Sagaing and Magway Regions was much less. But now they are about to come back. If battles broke out again like in the past, it wouldn't be good." he said.

The Operation-1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) contains the Bamar People Liberation Army (BPLA), the Mandalay People's Defense Force (MDY-PDF), the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Most of the townships in northern Shan State have been captured by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and it could be generally said that their military objective has been achieved, U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing the Three Brotherhood Alliance

" Except for Lashio in northern Shan State, all the remaining regions have been controlled by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and their military objective is generally achieved. They might tackle Lashio like Laukkai. After the ceasefire, the city has been surrounded. Their military objective in northeastern part of the cuntry has ended. The operation has reached Naunghkio now. And then, it might reach Pyin Oo Lwin and Mandalay. The implemantation of that military objective was not included in the ceasefire agreement. At the same time, PDFs in Sagaing and Magway Regions might promote their military activities against the Tatmadaw and vice versa, I think." he said.  

During the Operation-1027, the Three brotherhood Alliance has captured Laukkai, Kon Kyan,Kung Lon, Pangsai, Mong Ko, Phaung Sai, Theinni, Chin Shwe Haw, Namkham, Kutkai, Mang Ton, Nansang, Namtu, Mong Lon and Mong Ngor.