CNI News

13 September 2023

As the National Unity Government (NUG) has released a statement that there was not any agreements although the NUG discussed with Bo Nagar, there are reviews and discussions whether the NUG recognize the Burmese army led by Bo Nagar. 

There was a meeting between the NUG's acting president, Duwa Lashi La and defense minister, U Yi Mon, and leader of the Myanmar Royal Dragon Army, Bo Nagar, which the NUG reported.

The intentions of the meeting on 2nd May, 2023 were to help join in the chain of command (COC) that has been built by the NUG's ministry and defense and its allies and to negotiate and participate in the mechanisms of administration and defense that is being built on the ground by the NUG, and to take part in the reformation plan of the security sector to be implemented beyond the revolution, which the NUG stated. 

" Apart from the above-mentioned discussions, there were not any agreements" said the NUG. 

BNRA force

The Burma National Revolutionary Army was formed on 9th September, gathering revolutionary forces that have not been able to join under the control of the NUG under the leadership of Bo Nagar. 

There are reviews among the political community whether the NUG recognize the formation of the BNRA or not. If Bo Nagar recognized the leadership of the NUG and participated, he would welcome the Burmese armed force like other ethnic armed organizations, said U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political analyst, to CNI News.

" The two organizations need to collaborate. We have to recognize the different place, different situation and different process may produce differences within a period. Oneness must be built during practical cooperation, I think." he said.

PDF Force

The establishment of the BNRA was not forming a separatist organization and he had discussed with the NUG's ministries concerned about the BNRA, which Bo Nagar said on 9th September, 2023.

The enemy would try to break revolutionary forces down in various ways and revolutionary forces need to be organized, said Saw Lay Kapaw from the Karen Peace Support Network, to CNI News.

" When the revolution takes long, because it is not a regular pattern, it is necessary to be unite between the leadership and bottom part. We need to study so as to know their situation thoroughly. Another thing, the SAC will try to break the revolutionary forces down in various ways." he said.

 The BNRA would be active based in Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway Regions and it has prepared 18 battalions reportedly.

CNI News

13 September 2023

As not only skilled workers but also other youths from Myanmar have been going abroad, when Myanmar are losing its human resources, it is not easy to promote production, said businessmen and agricultural experts. 

If production cannot be promoted, exports may decline and foreign income may be less. So, relevant authorities should think about finding ways to prevent from labor drain to foreign countries, they pointed out.

If foreign income has gone less, it probably will be difficult to import goods from abroad and many other bad impacts may arise, said U Thet Zaw, an economic analyst, to CNI News.

" If there is no strategy, it is difficult to promote income. if income is less, it is difficult to get export earning. We are relying on agricultural sector alone to get export earnings. The rest is gas. We don't know when the gas will run out. If the agricultural sector can't produce the amount that can be relied, a lot of difficulties can appear." said U Thet Zaw.

People doing agriculture

Because Myanmar nationals who are going abroad to get well-paid jobs cannot be prevented, machines should replace the work force that has ben lost, he added. 

" If we cannot substitute, we will find it difficult to expand the business because the farmers are 70 percent of the population. Labors are mainly used in agriculture and livestock. There have not been so many workers in the industrial sector in our country. Seeds and planting technology are important in the agricultural sector. And then, harvesting techniques are also important. if they all can be changed with modern technology, the yield per acre will increase. The current technology cannot promote the yield." he said. 

Among the reasons why skilled youths have gone abroad, lowly-paid salaries and low wages are included and apart from job creation, wages and salaries should be raised to make the number of skilled youths who go abroad decline, which people reviewed.

It was necessary to promote domestic production in order to be able to replace foreign imports, said chairman of the State Administration Council in July this year. However, according to the current situation, it is impossible to promote the production, said Ko Zaw Min Naing, an agricultural and economic advisor, to CNI News. 

Myanmar workers who will go abroad

" Mainly, production did not increase. So, monetary inflation arose, I think. The production is not in a situation that can be promoted for many reasons at present. According to the armed conflicts happening all over the country, according to the political instability, it is difficult to promote the production. All the sectors are deteriorating in Myanmar. The people are facing with a lot of difficulties including farmers and traders. It is too difficult to promote the production in the current situation. Only when we can build a stable situation, we can promote the production, I think." he said.

Moreover, domestic products should meet the domestic demand and only the surplus should be exported. If not so, there will be food shortages locally. And policies should be changed, pointed out the businessmen and agricultural experts.

However, according to the report of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), PMI number of the Myanmar's domestic production increased to 57.4 in April, 2023 reportedly. PMI numbers are from 0 to 100 and above 50 is showing improvement and under 50, setback reportedly.

CNI News

13 September 2023

After the Myanmar Edible Oil Dealers Association (MEODA) issue a statement to sell palm oil at a price of earning 10 percent profit at most from the designated reference price, palm oil cannot be bought at the stores in the quarters reportedly from Yangon residents. 

Although MOEDA is selling palm oil around a person 50 ticals at a price of about 4,000 kyats per viss in some townships including Yangon and Naypyidaw, some shops are selling a person 20 ticals only at a price of 5,000 kyats per viss. Most of the shops don't have palm oil, said Ma Khaing Lwin, a housewife in Yangon, to CNI News.

" Trucks come and drop palm oil off at the shops. The shops sell palm oil a person 20 ticals only at a price of 5,000 kyats per viss. I find it difficult to cook because I don't have edible oil. The other day because I didn't have edible oil, I was not able to fry the roselle leaves." said Ma Khaing Lwin.

MEODA is making arrangements to enable palm oil to be sold at the price of taking net two percent profit at most at the wholesale market and at the price of taking net 10 percent profit at most at the retail market, said in the statement. 

While weighing and selling edible oils

Because the statement was released like that, the shops don't sell palm oil as a demonstration. Rather than designation of the palm oil price, only if every shop in quarters can sell the amount the people need at a low price, the problem of palm oil that cannot be bought can be solved, said U Thein Aung, chairman of the Farmers Development Association, to CNI News.

" Shop owners can't sell at that price. So, they say they have no palm oil. Rather than designating the price, only if the system that shops can actually sell in pristine condition can be built, it will be convenient. You don't have to sell at 4,000 kyats per viss. If you can sell at 6,000 kyats per viss the amount that the people want, the problem will be solved." he said.

Because domestic palm oil stocks are low, the demand in the market is being shared by quotas. Rather than granting palm oil import licenses to some companies, if those who have foreign currencies were allowed to freely import palm oil, commodity scarcity and price increase would be controlled, said an economic analyst to CNI News.

"We need to teach policy makers economic ideologies. If the supply increase, the price will automatically fall. At present, companies have been controlled by licenses and permits to import palm oil. If you announce every one who has foreign currencies can freely import palm oil, the price will fall at once. It might affect the dollar market in the short term. But The problem of insufficient palm oil and the problem hidden by those who speculate on palm oil can be solved in the short term," he said.

when palm oil is transported from Yangon Region to other regions and states, there are checks on the way and some shops don't sell  buyers from other regions and states. 

Although MOEDA is selling at a low price, it is not convenient for workers and the old because buyers have to wait in line for long to buy palm oil. Moreover, as members from some families wait in line to buy and sell palm oil, it is not convenient for those who really need, said the people.

CNI News

12 September 2023

Formation of the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA) is an encouraging situation for the Burmese ethnic region, said U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political analyst, to CNI News. 

BNRA was formed on 9th September to arise a true federal democratic union that can grant equal rights for all ethnic people, a political policy that is based on freedom, justice, equal rights and peace, that Bo Nagar announced.

" It is necessary to form a Burmese national army for the Burmese ethnic region like other ethnic armed organizations. We have had a view to form an army like that. But we are not sure whether Bo Nagar's army contain all the forces in the Burmese region or not. It is said that the BNRA contains a total of 13 organizations. Of the 13 organizations, 11 have been formed as a brigade that we have heard. Because an armed force has arisen for the Burmese ethnic region, we generally welcome that. If possible, it will be better if all organizations can participate. But the other two groups will carry out relating to the National Unity Government (NUG). So, emergence of this force is an encouraging situation for the Burmese ethnic region, I think." said U Than Soe Naing.

BNRA forces

The BNRA will be active based in Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway Regions and 18 battalions have been prepared reportedly. 

At present, there are still organizations that have not been able to join under the control of the NUG and the BNRA was formed after organizing the scattering groups, said Bo Nagar, chairman of the BNRA.

" We have formed the BNRA after the scattering groups. We don't form a separatist organization. It is not for our own interest. We have already discussed with the ministries concerned. The minister, the president and me discussed through the zoom meeting. We have systematically established the chain of command with the organizations that joined the BNRA after which we will formed the BNRA as a regular army and a standard army with the help of EAOs. We discussed and promised to carry out in collaboration with the NUG's ministry of defense." said Bo Nagar.  

the Bamr People's Liberation Army

Whether the BNRA will carry out for the sake of Burmese ethnicity alone or for the sake of the whole country, that must be watched and if it performs for the whole country, whether it can receive support from other ethnic people or not is questionable, said political analysts.

As the organizations representing Burmese that have arisen with the Spring Revolution, there are the BNRA and the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) and there are other locally based armed organizations by the hundred reportedly.

There are discussions and reviews among the political community that the NUG needs to organize different revolutionary forces.

CNI News

11 September 2023

Regionally-based federalism is the most suitable for Myanmar, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC). 

He said the above while he was meeting with local militia leaders in northern Shan State on 10th September, 2023. 

" In the implementation of democratic system and federal governance, there are ethnically-based federalism and regionally-based federalism. Most of the countries in the world apply regionally based federalism. The federalism based on region is the most appropriate for Myanmar." he said.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with militia leaders on 10th September, 2023

After that, when the peace talks are held,  ethnic armed organizations tend to demand for the sake of their ethnics and EAOs are weak in demanding for the sake of their regions. Organizations must not be ones representing a group of people, but they need to be ones representing a region, added chairman of the SAC. And he said that the Tatmadaw would carry out the peace processes, standing firmly on the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

According to the 2008 Constitution, Myanmar is made up of seven regions, seven states, five self-administered zones and one self-administered division. So, the current federalism is based on region and ethnicity and if a regionally based federalism was built, it would be necessary to amend the 2008 constitution.

CNI News

11 September 2023

The tourism season of Myanmar will start on 1st October, 2023 and as many skillful workers have gone abroad, a shortage of professional tour guides is a challenge for the tourism industry, according to tourism operators.

A shortage of skilled staff can be replenished with new workers after they are provided training courses by remaining skilled staff. But, the scarcity of tour guides and interpreter guides like this is challenging the future tourism industry, said U Zaw Weik, chairman of the Myanmar Hotelier Association (Bagan Zone), to CNI News.

" Many staff from our tourism industry have gone abroad. If tourists come again, we need to provide training courses to new staff. Key professional staff, guides, managers and receptionists resigned. This is a challenge for the tourism industry. If the tourism industry regularly operates again, many more new staff must be trained with skilled staff. We did so in the past as well. It is not a big challenge. But we find it a bit difficult to get professional tour guides such as ones who can speak French, German and Italian because many of them also have gone abroad. And we lost many guides during the Covid-19 pandemic. And many guides have grown very old. These are challenges for the future of the tourism industry. But we have to try to get over them." said U Zaw Weik.

Some foreign tourists who come to Bagan

Not every hotel can be open at present, travel operators and hoteliers tend to employ staff depending on the number of tourists who enter. The current number of staff could provide service to the number of tourists who will enter, U Aung Aye Han, deputy director general of the Ministry of Hotel and Tourism, told CNI News.

" Many staff have gone abroad.  Some staff were left here. There is no hundred percent employment at hotels. Maybe there are 60 or 70 percent that are convenient to operate. So, a shortage of labor force is not a problem up to now. Hotels have made preparations. Hotels have minimum requirements. They have employed staff that are needed minimum. So, if they need any more staff, they will need a few staff. Tourists might enter anymore. Hotels can provide service properly." said U Aung Aye Han.

As Chinese and Indian tourists have been granted visas on arrival and there are direct flights between Myanmar and Russia, more tourists might enter Myanmar. 

So, some tourism industries are making preparations and the owners of the hotels that have been closed are reportedly preparing to re-open.

 However, some tourism industries are finding it difficult to re-open due to a shortage of skilled workers and instabilities reportedly.

CNI News

11 September 2023

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) arrested 1,207 Chinese citizens who committed online scams in the territory controlled by the Wa Self-Administered Division in Shan State and extradited to China reportedly. The extradition was conducted from 6th to 7th September.

CNI News

11 September 2023

China will not accept the National Unity Government that is close to the western countries, said Dr. Aung Myo, a Myanmar political analyst, to CNI News. 

There are disagreements among the revolutionary organizations without any unities among the revolutionary forces, he said.

" By considering the problem in Pale, NUG/PDF won't beat this war. China won't allow the NUG to beat the war. I'd like to tell a point that nobody knows. China doesn't accept it. Most of the people these days don't know how the Patriotic Liberation Army (PLA), a rebel organization active in Myanmar from 1962 to 1974, badly ended. All PLA forces were disarmed by the Karen National Union (KNU). High-ranking people of the PLA were killed. The people who were personally friendly to them were released. Bo Let Ya, who took part in the PLA as a leader, who was a flagship leader of the 30 Comrades and who was the first defense minister of Myanmar, was killed by KNU. So, in the end, will KNU dominate? Will Bamar PDFs with more manpower dominate the KNU? In the end, they will fight against each other that we can guess." said Dr. Aung Myo.

Some PDFs

China's Investments in Myanmar are Kyauk Phyu Deep Sea Port, gas and oil pipeline, special economic zones and other investments. Because there are a lot of Chinese investments in Myanmar, China would deal with the State Administration Council (SAC) that has taken power currently, said U Htet Myet, a Myanmar political analyst, to CNI News.  

" In general, the problem is that the NUG is right-wing. Western countries are in more harmony with right-wingers. If you ask if the NUG get in touch with left-wingers, Vietnam, for example, will have no relation with the NUG. The NUG and Russia are the opposite. China also will be the same as Russia. But because China is a bit skillful in diplomacy, it knows how to behave or speak. It's hard to say what it is if we can't practically see. China has invested a lot in Myanmar. So, China will mainly deal with the government that has taken power. It will be difficult for China to deal obviously with the rebel government, I think." said U Htet Myet.

the NUG and US representatives

After the Tatmadaw took power on 1st February, 2021, democratic elements have been waging an armed revolution with protesting against the Tatmadaw. And then, armed conflicts have been breaking out across the country and peace, economy, education, health and social affairs of the country are being damaged. 

Because the NUG that is striving to topple down the Tatmadaw is close to the western countries including US, China will not probably accept the NUG for the sake of its national security and self-interest protection, pointed out some people.

CNI News

9 September 2023

Domestic gold price is gradually falling and now in the second week of September, the pure gold price has fallen 200,000 kyats per tical (1 tical=16 grams).

So, gold sellers have outnumbered gold buyers, according to the Yangon gold market. 

Because the international gold prices tend to fall down during the period from September to December, domestic gold price also has declined and can decline anymore, said U Myo Myint, chairman of the Yangon Region Gold Entrepreneurs Association (YGEA), to CNI News.

" Gold sellers have increased. When the gold price went up in the past, a lot of people buy gold at the same time. Now when the gold price is falling, a lot of people sell their gold at the same time. The period from September to December is the season that gold price falls. When everyone makes annual accounts in December, the transactions are reduced. Those who have to sell gold, they sell all gold. It is a custom of the whole world. Gold sellers outnumber gold buyers. So, the gold price can fall anymore." said U Myo Myint.

Some goldware

The current domestic gold price was 3.76 million kyats per tical on 5th September and reduced to 3.66 million kyats per tical on 6th September. The price reduced to 3.45 million kyats per tical on 8th September again. 

Gold price was almost 4.00 million kyats per tical and the current price is just a bit over 3.00 million kyats per tical. The price may fall until 3.3 million kyats, said Ko Ne Lin Khant, a gold market analyst, to CNI News.

" The price can reduce to 3.3 million kyats. But it is less likely to reach under 3.3 million kyats. If the price is too low, how much will gold shops sell and how much will they buy back? For the time being, gold sellers outnumber gold buyers. There are the people who try to make gold price high or low at present. We don't like that sort of thing. We like regular trading." he said.

Although the gold price falling is good, there are gold traders and gold entrepreneurs who are waiting to make speculations, taking advantage of gold price falling. So, it is necessary to regulate not to make gold price higher again, said gold market analysts.

Because the price of gold affects other commodity prices,  gold trading should be performed carefully, pointed out gold market analysts