CNI News

22 July 2022

The resumption of fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Tatmadaw could spread clashes in the entire Rakhine State, Rakhine politician U Pe Than told the CNI.

Before 2020, clashes between the AA and the Tatmadaw mostly broke out in the northern part of Rakhine State but resumption of fighting could spread to at least two thirds of the state, he said.

U Pe Than told the CNI, “Fighting will spread as much as they wish because the ULA/AA mainly controlled administrative, judicial and military affairs only in the northern part of Rakhine State in 2020. However, the AA has expanded its military, political and organizational influence to the central part of the state, where the headquarters of the Western Command of the Tatmadaw is located. Their administrative and judicial branches have expanded their influence even to the southern part of the state. It can be said they have expanded their influence to the entire state. Under the current circumstances, military clashes could spread to at least two thirds of the state. Both sides are able to expand their conflict area as much as they want."

Directions for roads leading to cities in Rakhine State.

At present, the situation between the AA and the Tatmadaw is very tense and the latter have arrested 45 people in Sittwe, Ponnagyun, Mrak-U and Kyauktaw while the former have detained members of security forces including a captain.

Furthermore, fighting between the AA and Tatmadaw broke out on 18 July and the AA arrested 14 members of security forces.

The attack was launched to take revenge for the airstrike of the Tatmadaw against an AA camp in Karen State on 4th July, AA spokesman Khaning Thukha told the Western News.

It is not clear whether the AA and the Tatmadaw held negotiations to prevent escalation of conflicts but U Pe Than said that he was sure neither side wanted to escalate fighting.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meets Mr. Sasakawa on 13th November, 2021.

U Pe Than told the CNI, “Whether they held negotiations or not, neither side seems to want to engage in extensive warfare. We can see the same view from both sides. If they want to escalate conflicts, they can do so easily because they have known each other’s posts and the conflict will spread to various places. Sometimes, fighting takes place in a certain place and fighting stops but the ULA/AA has issued warnings to the public that fighting could take place anytime.”

Japan’s special envoy for peace in Myanmar Mr. Sasakawa mediated a ceasefire between the AA and the Tatmadaw after the two groups fought intensely in Rakhine State and Paletwa in Chin State between November, 2018 and November, 2020.

Since then fighting between the two groups stopped under an informal agreement but the situation is tense at present after fighting broke out between them.

CNI News

 22 July 2022 

Splits within the Karen National Defence Organization (KNDO) do not bode well for the interests of Karen people, Chairman Mahn Aung Pyi Soe of the Karen National Democratic Party told the CNI. 

After Maj-Gen Saw Nerdah Mya announced the formation of the Kaw Thoo Lei Army on 19 July, the Karen National Union (KNU) issued a statement dismissing him on 20 July. 

The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the KNDO, also announced that it would not recognize the splintered faction. 

    Statement for formation of the Kaw Thoo Lei Army.

Mahn Aung Pyi Soe said, “We are disappointed and sad. An armed organization has splintered into different factions. We have already learnt the history of the KNU, which had splintered into factions previously. The faction led by the Sayadaw broke away from the KNU and formed the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, which again splintered into the KNLA-PC, the BGF and other factions. Such splits do not augur well for Karen people. Not only the Karen but also other ethnic groups should be aware of this. Such divisions and disunity are not beneficial for the people.”

The Kaw Thoo Lei Army led by Maj-Gen Saw Nerdah Mya said in a statement that the KNDO led by chief of staff Maj-Gen Saw Shee Lei is one of the signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with the Tatmadaw and has posed difficulties for their movement.

  Statements issued by the KNLA.

The statement added that the Kaw Thoo Lei Army stands as a people's army of Karen ethnic group and will defeat the Tatmadaw until the victory of the revolution has been achieved. 

In response, the central executive committee of the KNU announced after its meeting on 20 July that it dismissed Maj-Gen Saw Nerdah Mya and the KNU would not be held accountable for his actions. 

Mahn Aung Pyi Soe told the CNI, “I am wondering whether it would be easy for them to hold negotiations among themselves. As such, I don’t know there might be further splits like the San Aung faction and the Kyaw Thet faction, who had broken away from the DKBA in the past. If they can negotiate among themselves and reach agreements, we will be happy, but we are worried about the situation.”

Current Karen armed organizations include the KNU, the DKBA, the KNU/KNLA-PC and the BGF.

CNI News

22 July 2022

As Shwebo rice was in short supply in the domestic market, the prices of the rice variety surged, according to rice merchants.

The price of a 24-pyi bag of Shwebo rice rose by K 5,000 and the prices were likely to surge further, U Shine Win Latt, the owner of Shwebo Rice Trading at Wartan Road Commodity Exchange, told the CNI.

U Shine Win Latt said, “Rice prices, especially Shwebo rice, have risen. I think paddy was in short supply in Shwebo. As merchants do not have paddy to be milled, prices have surged. As the region mainly supplies rice to Yangon, the prices have soared here. Shwebo rice prices have risen by K 5,000 per bag. The prices are likely to rise further.”

Furthermore, rice supply to Bayint Naung Commodity Exchange dropped recently to only one-third of previous supply volumes, according to the commodity exchange.

The entrance to Shwebo.

As Shwebo rice was in short supply, merchants had to trade other varieties of rice, pushing up their prices, especially those from Ayeyarwady, U Shine Win Latt said.

“There are other varieties of rice like Ayeyarwady rice in the market but their prices have also risen as all commodity prices have risen. Farmers had to buy their inputs at rising prices and incurred more agricultural costs. So, consumers have started to think about mixing Shwebo rice with other varieties for their meals. If Shwebo rice is in short supply they will have to rely on other varieties. It is likely that Shwebo rice will be in short supply at present,” he told the CNI.

Shwebo rice is in short supply in the market since cultivation acreage of monsoon and summer paddy in the area dropped last year and paddy yields decreased.

As farmers in Shwebo were also displaced by regional instabilities while cultivation costs were rising, they were not able to grow as much paddy as before and paddy yields dropped.

Displaced people in Wetlet in Shwebo Township.

Farmers were worried about the shortages of seed paddy in coming years due to decreasing cultivation acreage, a local farmer in Shwebo told the CNI.

“Most farmers cannot grow paddy in our region currently as they are struggling with other problems. Only a few of them have started farming. Majority of them have not started farming as cultivation costs are rising. Farmers have to borrow money from others to invest in their farms as they are struggling with their costs of living. Most of them have not started farming. They are worried about the shortages of seed paddy in the coming years as they cannot grow rice this year. Under current circumstances, they are worried about their uncertain future,” the farmer said.

Residents of Shwebo mainly grow paddy and rice produced in the region and Shwebo rice fetches higher prices than that of other regions and gains the largest market shares in Myanmar.

As total acreage of paddy cultivated in Shwebo has decreased below the regional needs, the region is not likely to supply rice to other regions, according to rice merchants.

CNI News

22 July 2022

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is still able to exert her influence on the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and the National Unity Government (NUG), which are fighting for democracy, according to Chairman Dr. Aye Maung of the Arakan Front Party.

It is widely believed at home and abroad that the role and attitude of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is vital in resolving the current Myanmar political crisis and that she is able to use her influence on the PDF and the NUG to change their uncompromising attitude.

“No one has conducted surveys on the extent of influence she can exert on the PDF and the NUG but anyone can guess she has more or less influence on them. She has influence on them to a certain extent because the NUG has included Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U Win Myint in their government,” he told the CNI.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Dr. Aye Maung and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing during a meeting.

The NUG has still recognized Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as the state counsellor and U Win Myint as the president in their government.

ASEAN special envoy Prak Sokhonn, who has been tasked with resolving Myanmar political crisis, told the CNA that he wanted to use the influence of Daw Aung San Suu to end the violence in Myanmar and to hold dialogues.

“The most important things we will ask, or discuss with her is about her view on the future of Myanmar. How she sees the way out of the crisis, her political influence could have weight on the political process, the political dialogue that could lead to peace and reconciliation,” Mr. Sokhonn told the CNA. “Another point would be to ask her how her principle of non-violence could influence all the armed factions in order to stop violence,” he said.

Prak Sokhonn and Dr. Aye Maung.

Special envoy Prak Sokhonn is planning a third official visit to Myanmar in September and hopes to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi during the visit.

On his second trip to Myanmar Prak Sokhonn, AFP Chairman Dr. Aye Maung pointed out that the role of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should be taken into consideration in resolving the crisis during the meeting between seven leaders from political parties and the special envoy.

CNI News

22 July 2022

Sales in restaurants fell recently and profits were dwindled due to shortages and rising prices of gas for cooking, according to restaurant owners.

Restaurant owners, who have to rely on gas for cooking, are running their businesses without any profits due to rising gas and commodity prices, the owner of Linletkyal Fried Noodles Restaurant in Bahan Township told the CNI.

“Previously, we bought cooking gas at K 33,000 or K 35,000 per cylinder. Now, gas prices have risen by K 25,000 to K 55,000 per cylinder. As gas and foodstuffs are getting expensive, we cannot get profits. I have to rent the restaurant and pay staff salaries. I earn just enough money for the rent, the salaries and food for us.,” he said.

While gas prices have increased by more than K 20,000, some shops are selling gas under the rationing system.

Although some restaurants turned to electric stoves, they faced other problems like blackouts, rising electricity bills.

If gas prices rise further, restaurant businesses will have to face shutdowns, according to the owner of Lin Let Kyal noodles restaurant.

Gas cylinders in a gas station.

“If gas prices rise to K 60,000, K 70,000 or K 80,000, restaurants will not be able to afford it. Some restaurant owners use charcoal. Otherwise, their businesses will come to halt,” he told the CNI.

Moreover, fuel prices are also rising and commodity prices increased due to transportation charges, pushing up food prices.

With rising food prices, the number of patrons at restaurants has dropped and sales dropped, Chairman U Nay Lin of Restaurant Entrepreneurs Association told the CNI.

“We have to increase the prices of dishes at a time like this because restaurant owners can no longer suffer the losses. So, dishes that were sold at K 6,000 per serving may rise to K 7,000 or K 8,000. Finally, customers bare the brunt of the rising prices but they will be disappointed when they have to pay K 8,000 for what they usually ate at K 5,000 in the past. This caused difficulties for some. As a result, the number of customers at restaurants dropped. Every restaurant has faced the same problems,” he said.

Due to rising prices of US dollar against the Kyat, companies cannot import gas from Thailand and halted imports, leading to the rise of gas prices.

Restaurant owners pointed out that it is necessary to maintain currency price stability and fall in the prices of commodities to overcome the difficulties.

CNI News

20 July 2022

The rumour that no one has the right to possess foreign currencies such as US dollars, Euros, Yens and Singapore dollars except the government was not true and authorities are taking action against those who spread the fake news, Deputy Governor U Win Thaw of the Central Bank of Myanmar told the CNI.

“The fake news report has gone viral and market exchange rates have risen. It was not a statement issued by the CBM. Someone spread fake news reports to undermine the financial sector. The Ministry of Home Affairs is tracking the person who first spread the fake news report to take action against him. It was a fake news report and just an act of sabotage aiming at the creation of confusion among the public and chaos in the financial sector. We have seen the source that first fabricated the news report and the Ministry of Home Affairs is taking necessary action,” he said.

Fake news about possessing foreign currencies.

Fake news reports have spread on social media that no one has the right to possess foreign currencies including US dollars, Euros, Yens and Singapore dollars except the government in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar and action would be taken against those who possess them in accordance with the banking and financial laws.

Moreover, the reports said that jail terms and fines will be imposed on them based on prevailing prices to control the financial flows to illegal organizations.

It was also stated in the fake news reports that the FEC system equivalent to the US dollar would be adopted again at the end of 2022 and border trade with neighbouring countries would be carried out in Yuan, Rupee, Baht and Ruble.

The Ministry of Home Affairs is taking measures to take action against the news source.

Economists said that some people are taking advantage of political instability, economic crisis and rising market rates of US dollar in Myanmar to spread fake news.

CNI News

20 July 2022

Shan State Progressive Party spokesman Major Sai Phone Hon of SSPP/SSA told the CNI that they would take the peace issue into consideration only after territorial disputes in Monghsu Township in Shan State (South) had been settled.

Military tensions were mounting before the peace talks and if all were desirous of peace, there would be none of such problems, he said.

Maj Sai Phone Hon told the CNI, “ We will have to decide the next step to take after resolving the disputes because it was a stumbling block. As the tensions have been mounting before the peace process, we will have to say that there wouldn’t be any of such problems if all stakeholders were moving toward genuine peace.There would be no such problems if everyone was desirous of peace.”

Locations of the three posts the Tatmadaw has asked the SSPP to withdraw.

However, the withdrawal of troops in the disputed areas would be decided only after negotiations with the Tatmadaw and he couldn’t say anything about the issue officially.

On 14th July, the delegations led by Lt-Gen Yar Pyae and SSPP Vice Chairman -2 Maj-Gen Khu Sai met at Mongnaung in Shan State (North) and the former told the latter to withdraw troops from the posts they had occupied within seven days.

Maj Sai Phone Hon said that the Tatmadaw should not impose a precondition for peace talks if it really was desirous of peace, raising the question for the demand to withdraw troops.

The letter sent by the Tatmadaw to the SSPP

“Peace talks are held when there are tensions, but imposing preconditions is not a solution. If there are issues that must be resolved before the talks, we must settle them first so that we can move forwards smoothly. We believe that these will be minor issues that don't matter if the policy for peace in the entire country has been adopted. Actually,It is necessary for the media to ask the Tatmadaw why it raised the issues, which are not made by us. So, we don’t have much to talk about and advise the media to ask the Tatmadaw about them on behalf of the public,” he said.

The Tatmadaw demanded the SSPP to withdraw three posts of it at Loinoi and Manwain in Monghsu Township by 10th June on 4th June and by 30 June on for the second time but the SSPP refused to do so until now.

As tensions have mounted, representatives of the both sides met on 14 July but the Tatmadaw has still demanded the SSPP to withdraw troops from the posts.

CNI News

21 July 2022

Although more than one million migrant workers in Thailand including Myanmar will be permitted to work there until 13th February 2025, illegal workers will not be able to enjoy the same right, labour activists for Myanmar workers told the CNI.

Migrant workers who have been permitted to officially stay and work in Thailand until 13 February 2025 are those who have temporary work permits ( pink certificates), work permits (blue certificates) and the CI and MOU documents.

Thailand announced that temporary work permits (pink certificates) would be issued for illegal workers, the plan has not been approved by the government so far.

Labour affairs in charge U Min Oo told the CNI, “ They ( Thai government) already have had plans for illegal workers. I think they issued the announcement on 5th July to force all eligible workers to register with the government. It meant that they would renew the terms for workers who had work permits. However, those who have work permits fall into various classifications, according to the decisions made by the cabinet and the terms of their work permits are different. So, they wanted to set the same target for all in 2025. They aimed to set the same terms for all migrant workers.”

However, Ko Thargyi told the CNI that temporary work permits were not issued for all illegal workers in the past.

“Whenever it was announced that official work permits would be issued for illegal workers, a lot of people enter Thailand illegally but they had to pay money for illegal immigration and were cheated. I have not found any official documents issued to illegal workers,” he said.

In renewing the official work permits to stay and work in Thailand, migrant workers who have been permitted to do so in Thailand until 1st August, 2022 are required to renew their permits that are valid until 13th February 2025 before the expiry of their current permits.

The second group, whose permits expire on 1st August, 2022, are required to renew their permits once a year until 13th February, 2025.

Although it was good for more than one million immigrant workers to be allowed to stay and work in Thailand until 2025, they would not be staying in Thailand free of charge, according to U Min Oo, the in charge of labour from the FED.

“Anyway, there are consequences for workers, who have to satisfy the needs of agencies and employers in terms of costs and pay as much as required in accordance with the statements. However, it is good for workers to have more job opportunities for the workforce,” he said.

The Thai government has to extend the terms of migrant workers due to  the shortage of labour in Thailand for the first time, according to U Min Oo.

CNI News

21 July 2022

As rice exports came to a halt recently, supply of the crop to Bayint Naung Commodity Exchange was low, according to the commodity exchange.

Currently, rice exports have halted completely and demand for rice is very low. Recently, rice was traded for domestic consumption, Tatmadaw rations and other organizations, Secretary U Than Oo of Bayint Naung Commodity Exchange told the CNI.

“As exporters have stopped buying rice, traders have to purchase rice at lower prices. So, it is not profitable for merchants in small towns who store rice for the market and as they cannot sell their rice at lower prices. Another factor is paddy has not been harvested at this time of the year in most areas except Mandalay and Madaya. Recently, we could sell rice for domestic consumption, rations for the Tatmadaw and the WFP. Exporters have stopped purchasing rice,” he said.

As the Central Bank of Myanmar has set the exchange rate at K 1,850 per US dollar, exporters suffered losses and stopped rice exports.

The processing of paddy.

Therefore, rice supply to Bayint Naung Commodity Exchange decreased to one-third of its usual volumes, according to U Than Oo.

“About 70,000 to 80,000 bags of rice were usually transported to Bayint Naung Commodity Exchange every day but the supply volumes dropped to 20,000 to 25,000 bags a day or about only one-third of usual volumes. Millers, wealthy farmers and dealers have not sold their rice to get more profits when the prices rise again. There is no rice in the hands of small farmers. As the harvest has started in Madaya, farmers there may have paddy in their hands. In other places, rice is held by people who are waiting for higher prices,” he told the CNI.

Maritime exports of rice have halted due to the gap between the official exchange rate and the market rates, but traders are still exporting rice at the border trade.

Rice exports through the border trade are still surviving as rice was traded not in US dollar but in Yuan there, Vice Chairman U Min Thein of Muse Rice Commodity Exchange told the CNI.

“We mainly exported broken rice to China and only a little rice. As the rice and broken rice trading is carried out not in US dollar but in Yuan, the border trade of rice and broken rice is carried out in Yuan, it was not seriously affected by the exchange rate set by the CBM. However, those who exported rice through the maritime trade suffered losses due to the gap between the official exchange rate of 1,850 per US dollar and market rates. We have not suffered the consequences as we exported rice in Yuan but those who exported rice through the maritime trade suffered losses because they traded in US dollars. So, they have stopped buying rice for exports. So, merchants from small towns cannot sell rice at lower prices and the demand is very low,” he said.

Rice exported to other countries was 25 marks rice and the price was as high as K 30,000 per bag but exporters could not offer more than K 28,000 per bag to export rice to other countries.

However, millers and farmers cannot sell rice to them at the lower prices and only a few of them who were short of cash sold rice to exporters at a loss, according to the commodity exchange.