CNI News 

3 June 2023 

Sagaing Forum was held with the aim of creating a brigade representing Bamar ethnic group, Political Observer U Than Soe Naing told the CNI. 

The brigade hopes that it will be able to create a united front by cooperation with the National Unity Government for the Spring Revolution, he added. 

U Than Soe Naing told the CNI, "I want to emphasize that it is very importantly to create a brigade representing Bamar ethnic group by unifying all groups in Sagaing Region. To meet the need, PDFs and those who are not under the command of the NUG are ogranizing the forum. We have also urged the NUG to form an army representing Bamar ethnic group in Sagaing Region as there has been no such thing as a Bamar army. It was heard that they were trying to create a brigade  by unifying the guerilla forces in the region under such circumstances." 

It was learnt that resistance forces and political forces in Sagaing Region will discuss the matter unitedly. 

The Karen National Union (KNU) sent a message to the forum, saying that it hoped a federal union will emerge from the Sagaing Forum and expected that Sagaing Region will be a federal unit in building a federal union.

Similarly, Pa-O National Federal Council announced that it was proud of the people of Sagaing Region who have been a model for resistance  and Sagaing Forum was a model for collective negotiations, collective leadership and collective resistance. 

Rakhine politian U Pe Than said, "Myanmar resistance forces are mostly revolutionary forces. They are fighting against military dictatorship and for democratic system but ethnic groups are fighting for self-determination, self-administration and the right to create their own destiny. Under such circumstances, some Bamar do not like the argenda. At such a time, a united force representing Bamar ethnic group should and can emerge. However, it is unacceptable that the Bamar group is against the other ethnic groups." 

The resistance against the Tatmadaw started in Sagaing Region after 1st February in 2021 and fighting has erupted until now.

CNI News

3 Jun 2023

Political analysts are debating what will happen after formation of battalions and units by the Ministry of Defence of the National Unity Government.

It was announced on 1st June, 2023 that Battalion 5101, the first battalion of the People Defence Foces in Yangon Region was formed to launch attacks against the Tatmadaw more strategically.

Although the battalion was formed, it is difficult for the battalion to launch attacks as it does not have a stronghold, Political Observer Dr Aung Myo told the CNI.

He said, "Nothing special will happen. It is said that they formed a battalion called 5101. As it is a battalion, there is a battalion commander, a deputy battalion commander, company commanders and platoon commanders under their formation. So, it is easier for the government to capture them. As their troops are no longer small separate units and formed into a larger battalion, the government will be able to capture them all even if only a few of them have been detected. However, it is impossible for them to launch attacks. They will be able to carry out assassinations only. As I have a 20-year military experience, I am sure that they won't be able to do anything without a stronghold in such a region."

Security Forces.

The NUG announcement said that it has ordered its troops to form battalions and units in respective military regions across the country.

On 1st February, 2021, the Myanmar Tatmadaw ousted the civilian National League for Democracy Government after accusing it of formation of a new government without settling election disputes.

Afterward, the NUG formed the PDF on 5th May, 2021 to topple the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

The NUG seems to be forming battalions to systematically consolidate resistance forces, Political Observer U Kyee Myint told the CNI.

Members of the NUG

He said, "From the military perspective, they seem to be consolidating their troops because some of their members are frequently arrested. So, they may think their members were arrested because they lack systematic organizational set-up. Another reason may be they are trying to be more capable. It is just my personal opinion.

In addition, authorities are likely to make more arrests and checks in Yangon, he added.

Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw and allied forces of ethnic armed organizations and the PDF are fighting in Kayin State, Kayah (Karenni) State, Chin State and Sagaing and Magway Regions.

CNI News

1 April 2023

Troops of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization launched an ambush against troops of the Shan State Restoration Council, although both of them are signatories to the NCA, in Kadugyi Area in Mawkmai in Shan State (South), RCSS Spokesperson Maj Sai Kham San told the CNI.

He added that PNLO troops came to attack RCSS positions and later withdrew.

He told the CNI, "They just tried to ambush us and retreated. We did not respond to their attacks. It broke out yesterday afternoon. I am still looking at the map to pinpoint the location."

Although the CNI contacted the PNLO for the incident, the organization did not respond to the call.

The PNLO delegation arrives in Nay Pyi Taw  for peace negotiations.

After the U Thein Sein government permitted the PNLO to establish bases in Kadugyi Area, there used to be clashes between the RCSS and PNLO, according to political observers.

Maj Sai Kham San said that the RCSS would address the issue through the regular communication channel without taking military action.

He told the CNI, "We have regular communication channels. We will ask them why they ambushed us. I don't have any other comments because it was not a big clash. We will settle the issue through negotiations and by monitoring our troops not to make a military response."

Delegations of seven ceasefire EAOs including the PNLO and the RCSS.

In February, 2022, clashes between the RCSS and the PNLO broke out and there were casualties.

As both of them are signatories to the NCA, it is possible to address the issue through the Joint Monitoring Committee.

However, the functions of the JMC cannot be carried out effectively at present.

CNI News

1 April 2023

Although Yangonites usually celebrate Thingyan festivals by travelling round the city in open light trucks to be doused with water, the car rental market has been sluggish for this year's Thingyan festival, according to car charter services.

Although it is only two weeks away from the festival, only a few people have popped up to hire light trucks to celebrate the festival around the city and it is not beneficial for rental services as fees are very low, U Anyar Thar, who has been operating charter truck services, told the CNI.

He said, "Almost no one has hired our trucks to celebrate the festival round the city but we had talked to customers who asked us just to drive round pavilions in the People's Square from 9 am to 5 pm. We don't need to go to other places. However, the rental fees they gave to us were too low to be profitable for us. So, we did not accept their offers. I have only one customer who will go round the city to be doused with water."

Plans are underway to organize two walking water festival events and build pavilions in 45 townships in Yangon Region, according to the organizing committee for celebrating the Thingyan festival in Yangon Region.

A music and dance show during Thingyan.

However, it was reported that there is only one pavilion under construction in front of the city hall and no one has built pavilions in other places.

Only a few people have hired cars to celebrate the Thingyan festival this year and most people are chartering cars to visit beaches and other regions, Ko Bilar, the owner of a car rental service, told the CNI.
He said, "Almost no one has planned to celebrate the Thingyan festival. Some car rental services refused to provide services as rental fees they gave were too low. Some services have decided not to run their operations during the festival. However, people are chartering cars to go to other farther destinations like Chaungtha beach.

During Thingyan festivals before the outbreak of COVID-19, car rental fees were as high as MMK 200,000 per day but rental fees this year will be higher due to rising fuel prices.

Before the pandemic, cars to celebrate the festivals in the city were booked about one month in advance but no one has popped up to do so, a car rental service owner told the CNI.

People celebrate the Thingyan festival.

He said, "In the past, cars for celebrating the festival had to be booked one month ahead because it was difficult for customers to hire cars when the festival was only 15 or 20 days away. It was fortunate for customers to get a car on the eve of the festival. Sometimes, we had to drive them to Ngwesaung before the festival. This year, we have received customers who will go to Chaungtha and Ngwesaung. However, we haven't received customers for all our cars."

During the pre-pandemic festivals, there were pavilions along Inya Lake and Pyay Road, Waizayantar Road and Maha Bandoola Road and Merchant Road downtown and there were crowds of people participating.

During the pandemic, Thingyan festivals were not celebrated to prevent gathering large numbers of people and the festivals were not celebrated on a grand scale due to the political climate.

CNI News

1 April 2023

Thailand's reduction of the visa-free period for foreigners including Myanmar nationals from 45 days to 14 days seems to aim at earning revenues, labour activists for Myanmar migrant workers told the CNI.
In the past, Thailand granted a 14-day visa-free period to citizens from countries that reached visa agreements with it including Myanmar but it extended the period up to 45 days as of 1st October, 2022 to attract visitors.

As Thailand now has received a large number of foreign tourists, it might have slashed the visa-free period to 14 days as of 1st April, Consultant U Aung Kyaw of the Migrant Workers Rights Network told the CNI.

Thai authorities make preparations to inspect arrivals in a Thai airport.

He said, "Since the first outbreak of COVID-19 in December, 2019, the world faced a disaster and Thailand did not earn any tourism revenue. So, when it could control the pandemic, it attracted foreign tourists by extending the visa-free period up to 45 days. Now, it has priortize the tourism revenues and slashed the visa-free period. If tourists want to stay in Thailand more than 14 day, they will have to pay taxes to the government. They aim at earning revenues."

The reduction of the visa-free period to 14 days may have something to do with the current political situation and the general election scheduled in May, the labour activists said.

Those who have been granted a 45-day visa-free period before 31st March can stay in Thailand 45 days and those who have received visas on arrival are allowed to stay in Thailand 30 days, according to a statement released by the Myanmar embassy in Thailand.

However, those who want to stay in Thailand more than 14 can apply for visas in the Thai embassy in Yangon, the statement said.

The interior of a Thai airport.

Labour activist U Min Oo of the Foundation for Education and Development told the CNI, "Even if Myanmar nationals have received visas, Thai immigration can reject them. So, it is important to answer the questions asked by the immigration properly. It depends on the personality of individuals. When a plane from Myanmar lands, if they think poorly of someone, they detain him or her and extort money. If you have all documents, are smart and answer all questions properly, it is OK. They will ask you where you are going and what you are doing. You must answer properly and must show money. If you can't answer properly, you will have problems.

The visa-free period has been slashed not only for Myanmar nationals but also from those who are from countries like Cambodia, Laos, Macau, Mongolia, Russia and many others.

CNI News

31 Mar 2023

Although the floating Inlay Thingyan festival, which has been suspended since the outbreak of COVID-19, has been sceduled to resume this year, it is too late to attract domestic and foreign tourists, hoteliers and tour operators told the CNI.

Although it was necessary to advertise the floating water festival comprehensively to domestic and foreign tourists, organizers were too late to announce the program, Deputy Director U Sithu Kyaw of Directorate of Hotels and Tourism told the CNI.

He said, "In fact, they were required to organize and sell the package tours far ahead of the festival. As they seemed to arrange the festival too late, it was difficult to sell the package. Such a festival should have been announced earlier so that tour operators could sell the packages. The most important factor is to make the package known to the foreign tourist and the public earlier. The organizers failed to make foreigners known what a floating Thingyan festival is. They needed to promote the package. It is too late to do so."

The Inlay floating Thingyan is to be scheduled for the first time after the outbreak of COVID-19 and pavilions and rafts are being repaired.

A floating Thingyan pavilion on the Inle lake in the past.

In the past, Nyaungshwe was a tour destination and hundreds of thousands of tourists participated in the festival, according to the MTEA.

However, it is expected that only domestic tourists will visit the lake, Chairman U Naung Naung Han of the MTEA told the CNI.

He said," During the Thingyan festival, domestic tourism is important for us. In the past, we were able to sell all packages before the Thingyan festivals. We arranged related tours to Pindaya and Kalaw and souvenir shops. Local people earned a lot of income."

It is reported that the majority of domestic tourists are travelling to beaches, Shan state, Mandalay and Bagan, according to the MTEA.

CNI News

31 Mar 2023

Due to suspension of new licenses to export rice through the border trade in a bid to stabilize domestic rice prices, the exports of rice and broken rice at the China-Myanmar border have almost ground to a halt, according to rice merchants in Muse.

It was reported that new licenses have been suspended and rice exports have been restricted to stabilize domestic rice prices.

As rice exports have been restricted and summer paddy are being harvested, domestic rice prices will fall, Vice Chairman U Min Thein of the Muse Rice Exchange told the CNI.

He said, "There are only a few licenses that have already been issued. Authorities have suspended issuing new licenses since 14th February. However, it was heard that the new licenses will be issued in April. However, merchants have stopped exporting rice to China since it was not profitable for them because of the requirement to sell 65 percent of their export earnings at the CBM rate to banks. So, rice and broken rice exports have almost ground to a halt. Although authorities have not announced that they have restricted rice exports officially, they have restricted it gradually. As summer paddy is going to be harvested, domestic rice prices will fall back to some extent."

Drying paddy under the sun.

As the rice variety mainly exported to other countries is 25-mark emata variety rice, the prices of emata rice will drop but the yields of paw san hmwe variety rice have decreased this year, paw san hmwe rice price will not fall, according to rice merchants.

As domestic rice prices have skyrocketed, it is not profitable for merchants and most of them have stopped exporting rice.

As rice exports have halted and falling rice prices can affect paddy farmers, export licenses are being issued after thorough scrutinization to stabilize the market, Secretary U Than Oo of the Bayintnaung Commodity Exchange told the CNI.

He said, "It has something to do with domestic rice prices. However, if we do not export rice, farmers will suffer losses. It is impossible to ban rice export on the one hand and we cannot allow domestic rice prices to skyrocket on the other hand. As a result, we will have to try to strike a balance. Last month, monsoon paddy stock was low and rice prices skyrocketed forcing merchants to export rice at losses. And it still takes some time to harvest summer paddy and authorities had to restrict issuing licenses. Merchants were not allowed to export rice recklessly. Now, summer paddy is being harvested."

Loading rice bags

Summer paddy has been harvested since the second week of March and as rice supply has entered the Bayintnaung Commodity Exchange, rice prices have fallen.

The prices of rough rice, which is mainly exported to other countries, have dropped from MMK 53,000 per bag previously to MMK 50,000 per bag at present and the prices are likely to fall further because of the moisture of newly harvested rice, according to the commodity exchange.

Although the Myanmar Rice Federation aimed to export 2.1 million tons of rice in the 2023-24 fiscal year, it will have to export only about 150,000 tons of rice a month, according to rice merchants.

CNI News

31 Mar 2023

A peace conference that focuses on northern ethnic armed groups is likely to be organized, Political Observer U Ye Tun told the CNI.

He added that the peace conference can be held more broadly if EAOs that are signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement are invited to it.

He told the CNI, "A peace conference is likely to be organized. After meeting the Chinese special envoy, the northern alliance of seven EAOs announced that there are various ways and means to build a federal union. Another factor is that when the NCA was signed during the term of former president U Thein Sein, the northern EAOs refused to sign the agreement and they also refused to join the Panglong conference organized during the term of the NLD. Now, a peace conference will be organized by inviting them after negotiations, it can be said that the conference is focused on northern EAOs. The conferences for the NCA and during the term of the NLD can be said as southern focused ones. Therefore, we will have to wait and see whether EAOs in the southern part of the country will attend the conference. The SAC will invite them but I am not sure whether they will attend the conference or not. If NCA signatories attend the conference, it will be a more comprehensive conference."

The NSPNC holds talks with the UWSA, the SSPP and the NDAA on 22nd March, 2023.

It was announced that the SAC, the USWA, the NDAA and the SSPP held discussions on 22nd March to hold a peace conference.

In the same way, the SAC and seven EAOs, which have strike ceasefire deals with the former, discussed possibilities to organize a peace conference.

The SAC will reveal the outcomes of the negotiations with the EAOs to the public after the peace conference, which should be organized, Chairman Dr Aye Maung of the Arakan Front Party.

He told the CNI, "As the slogan of the NSPNC suggests, they might amend the constitution and later organize a conference or a peace conference. It might also end up in amending the constitution. The key to the question is whether the SAC, the CCP and the Chinese government have agreed that the new elections and the new parliament is the best exit from the crisis and whether the FPNCC and the seven PPST member NCA signatories have agreed to the concept."

The NSPNC holds talks with seven EAOs from 28th to 29th March, 2023.

He added that a peace conference might be a major exit from the crisis by amending the constitution by NCA signatories. The 21st Century Panglong Conferences have been held four times. Fifty-seven points have been agreed and shall they continue to organize the conference? How many points have been agreed during the negotiations. They can reveal their agreements to the public only at a conference. So, they may and should organize a conference. Only then, will they be able to proceed. It is a peace process in which the EAOs and the SAC have agreed to amend the constitution. The role of political parties and the 2008 constitution will continue in their own way."

Union peace conferences had been organized since the term of the former president U Thein Sein and the last one was held in August, 2020 during the tenure of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

CNI News

30 Mar 2023

To create a political climate for dialogue of all stakeholders, seven signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement and the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee held talks.

The talks were held in Nay Pyi Taw on 28 and 29 March, 2023.

The seven NCA-S EAOs said in a statement, "At the first day of the talks, the informal negotiation team of the seven NCA-S EAOs discussed issues for creating a political dialogue of all stakeholders, the peace processes and federal basic principles."

The informal negotiation team included leader Col Sai Ngin (the RCSS), deputy leaders Daw Saw Mya Yazar Lin (the ALP) and Naing Aung Ma Ngay (the MNSP), members Col Saw Kyaw Than Htay (the DKBA), Col Saw Kyaw Nyunt (the KNU/KNLA-PC), Kyar Phu (the LDU) and Maj Khun Min Thein (the PNLO) and five assistant representatives.

Representatives of the NSPNC included Secretary Lt-Gen Win Bo Shein, member of working committee Lt-Gen Khin Zaw Oo (Retd), negotiation committee members Lt-Gen Min Naing, Lt-Gen Aye Win, U Hla Maung Shwe, Col Wunna Aung and member of the supporting team Col Aung Kyaw Tun.