CNI News
7 August 2024

Political and military analysts are reviewing and discussing whether battles breaking out until the border between northern Shan State and Mandalay Region could spread to Mandalay.

The second wave of Operation-1027 was launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA) in northern Shan State in the last week of June and battles reached Momeik, Mogok, Madaya and Sintku in Mandalay Region.

And then, many residents of Mandalay were worried that battles would reach Mandalay township and some of them fled to Naypyidaw and Yangon in advance.

Although the current battles could threaten Mandalay City, PDFs alone could find it difficult to capture Mandalay without the help of EAOs and the Haigen discussion must be watched, Col.Khun Okkar, patron of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) told CNI News.

While seeing the Mandalay PDF/the TNLA joint forces

" In my opinion, the current battles can threaten Mandalay. But we can't say whether Palaung, Kokang and Wa forces will come with PDF forces or not. But there are other Bamar forces as well. They might join the organizations that will attack Mandalay. But if EAOs didn't join, they alone could find it difficult to capture Mandalay City. Meanwhile,a certain discussion could suspend the battles for a short time. We have heard that there will be a discussion in Cunming, China. We are watching it. The situation won't get worse for the time being, I think." he said.

The National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee sent a letter describing that it wouldn't be able to attend the 6th Haigen Meeting with the Three Brotherhood Alliance that will be held on 8th August.

In the strength competition between the democratic elements and the military elements, the democratic elements want the revolutionary forces to capture Mandalay City quickly, U Kyi Myint, Myanmar political commentator told CNI News.

While seeing the office of the Mandalay City Development Committee

" In the strength competition between the democratic elements and the military elements, the democratic elements want the revolutionary force to capture Mandalay City as soon as possible by all means." he said.

The Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF/TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Mandalay People's Defense Force (MDY-PDF) and the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) are included in the battles against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region.

Revolutionary forces could pretend to be really attacking Pyin Oo Lwin and they could mainly attack Mandalay City, a political commentator told CNI News.

" Battles can reach Mandalay. Revolutionary forces will mainly attack Mandalay. They will pretend to be really attacking Pyin Oo Lwin. PDF troops could wear uniforms of the MNDAA and the TNLA after which they could attack. China will support necessary arms and ammunition. So, they can attack with full strength." he said.

Battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and revolutionary forces in Kyaukme and Nawnghkio, northern Shan State as well as in Mogok, Sintku and Madaya, Mandalay Region.

Armed opposition forces were gathering forces in order to attack Mandalay City, pointed out military analysts.

CNI News

7 August 2024

Because Myanmar MoU workers are allowed to return to their workplaces only when they can prove that they have already transferred money to their families in Myanmar, the MoU workers hardly come back to the Myanmar side on the border, overseas employment agencies told CNI News.

Myanmar workers working in Thailand with the MoU U-turn system who could show any evidence that they have already transferred 6,000 Baht equal to 25 percent of three month salaries to their families in Myanmar would be allowed to return to their workplaces, the directorate of labor has released.

" Myanmar MoU workers who went to Thailand with the U-turn system hardly come back. The number of workers we sent is about 30. They are finding it difficult to transfer money. Only if Myanmar labor officers on the Thai side provide service to make workers convenient, can the workers transfer money. If the officers don't accept this one or that one, the country can't get the tax. At present, Western Union Bank is being used. Although the prices of foreign currencies designated by the Myanmar government are much lower than the market prices, they will comply with the designation so that their livelihood will be convenient. But if there are difficulties, they can't transfer money." said U Win Myint, managing director of Lucky Overseas Employment.

Myanmar migrant workers who were applying for necessary documents at an immigration department in Thailand

When Myanmar MoU workers who went to Thailand with the U-turn system come back to the MoU U-turn camps in Myawady and Kawthaung to renew, only if they must show any evidence that they have officially transferred money equal to 6,000 Baht, 25 percent of there basic salaries to their families in Myanmar, they would be allowed to return to their workplaces in Thailand, the directorate of labor of the Myanmar government released on 30th July, 2024.

Because Myanmar workers whose MoUs have expired didn't come back to Myanmar, although they didn't want to pay, they have to compulsorily pay, U Aung Kyaw from the Labor Rights Foundation (LRF) told CNI News.

Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand

" When Myanmar migrant workers had to go to Thailand to work with the MoU U-turn system due to bad conditions of Myanmar, they can't overcome the strict policies of the Myanmar government. The workers can return to their workplaces in Thailand only if they can show any evidence that they have officially transferred 25 percent of their basic salary to their families and paid two percent of income tax. They know that they have to pay." he said.

Myanmar MoU workers have to get to the MoU U-turn camps on the Myanmar side before 12:30 pm to renew and documents describing that they have transferred money to their families must be prepared before coming to the U-turn camps to avoid unwanted delays, said in the statement.

CNI News

6 August 2024

There are reviews and discussion among political circles regarding whether a peace talk could emerge.

A political dialogue was needed to be held after which it was necessary to build the peace before the election, Dr.Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) told CNI News.

" The post-election government is important. If a general election is held in December, 2025, peace and stability is important to the five-year tenure government which will start from 2026. The situation before the election is important. To tell you frankly, it's necessary to build the peace through a political negotiation so that a post-election government will be stable." he said.

While seeing armed groups, Tatmadaw, leaders of the government

A census-taking would be conducted this year and an attempt would be made in order to hold a general election in 2025, said chairman of the SAC.

 It would be better if a peace talk which contained the SAC, the EAOs, political parties and other organizations was held, Sao Khun Sai, a person participating in the peace process, told CNI News.

" It would be very good if a peace dialogue emerged. We should encourage those who will lead the dialogue." he said.

Because of political disagreements which started on 1st February 2021, armed conflicts are widely taking place across the country.

While seeing armed groups, Tatmadaw, leaders of the government

It was necessary to persuade EAOs to make them participate in the dialogue and political parties got ready, said Dr.Aye Maung.

" Political parties alone can't succeed in political negotiation. EAOs are needed to take part in the negotiation as well. The NCA channel emerged in this way. In the channel, there is a 7 EAO alliance. There are non-NCA signatories as well. Can we persuade them? Moreover, I'm not sure how the political parties which have not got registration will go on." he said.

Because of armed conflicts that are currently taking place in Myanmar, Myanmar people are facing economic decline, inflation, higher commodity price and lack of employment.

CNI News

6 August 2024

The EAOs were manufacturing arms and ammunition and selling them to the People's Defense Forces (PDFs), said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC). 

He said the above in his speech explaining to the public on 5th August, 2024.

" In some EAO territories, arms and ammunition factories have been established and are manufacturing arms and ammunition. These arms and ammunition are being supported or sold to so-called PDFs and other EAOs. And most arms and ammunition seized by the security forces were produced in these factories." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

While arms and ammunition were seized in Mandalay Region

Lots of finance and technologies were needed to establish the factories like that and where the finance and technologies were got from must be analyzed, he added.

EAOs which have been based on the China-Myanmar border are the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and the Shan State Processive Party (SSPP).

Among the EAOs, the KIA and the UWSA have the factories which produce arms and ammunition. 

Arms and ammunition seized in Mandalay, Sagaing, Magway Regions and Shan State were those produced from the factories of the KIA and the UWSA, said a military analyst.

While arms and ammunition were seized in Shan State

" The KIA has been arming and giving military training to the PDFs in the upper Sagaing Region since 2021 and created to make the territories unstable. The PDF terrorist organizations were destroying lives and properties of the public in Sagaing Region and related areas. The KIA is found to be the main source of these things." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

Some foreign countries are providing EAOs with finance, food, medicine, arms, ammunition, technologies, administrative support and so on to make Myanmar become the type they wanted, he said.

Moreover, the arms which were being used by armed groups in the southern part of the country were imported through the black market route on the Thai-Myanmar border and the EAOs and PDFs have gained telecommunication devices, drones, arms and ammunition from that route, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

At present, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and EAO/PDF joint forces across the country and the SAC has lost control of many towns and military camps.

CNI News

6 August 2024

Because of Myanmar's political instability, although the economic system changed, it would not improve the economy, economic analysts and academics told CNI News. 

Economic sector decline was not because of an economic system, but because of unstable politics. So, even though the economic system changed in order to improve the economy, it would not work, an economic analyst told CNI News.

" That Myanmar is facing economic problems now is not an economic issue. It's a political issue. The political problem adversely affects the economy. Any economic policy won't be successful while the political problem can't be solved. You want to do business, but you can't. Paddy can't be grown in upcountry. In the same way, you want to conduct border trade, but you can't go to any border area because of insecurity. So, no matter what policy is laid down, it won't work. Moreover, there are also international sanctions." he said.

While seeing an old woman buying some edible oil

According to the current situation of Myanmar, the cooperative system was the most appropriate in carrying out to improve the economy, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) at the meeting of the Union Government held on 29th July, 2024.

Successive governments implemented various economic policies; according to the current situation of the country, the cooperative system was the most appropriate in carrying out to improve the economic sector, said chairman of the SAC.

If the cooperative system which was not successful in Myanmar was reactivated, not only would it not be successful, the black market would prevail the whole country, said business people.

Moreover, the cooperative was not an economic system, only a sector; it was necessary to know clearly the economic system was only the market economy, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

While seeing a garment factory

" Mainly, the system is different from the sector. Cooperative is just a sector, not a system. System is the economic system. The economic system contains private sector, cooperative sector and state-owned sector. But one thing to say, there is capitalism that is led by the government. State capitalism is being used in Singapore." he said.

The cooperative sector produced only one percent of the GDP of Myanmar and the private sector, until 70 percent while the government sector produced nearly 30 percent.

There is no country whose cooperative system leads the country's economy; although there are some countries which are successful by the cooperative sector, the sector could produce a few percent of the GDP. 

Although communist countries implemented their countries' economies by the cooperative system, because they did not succeed, they were using the market economy, pointed out economic analysts.

CNI News

6 August 2024

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) violated the ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar Tatmadaw and attacked, said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, leader of the Information Team of the State Administration Council (SAC) on 4th August, 2024.

The MNDAA started attacking Lashio, northern Shan State on 3rd July and also attacked the places where civilians lived, he added.

" The MNDAA and its joint forces violated the ceasefire and started attacking Lashio on 3rd July. Since they started attacking, they also attacked the places where civilians lived with shock missiles and dropped bombs by the hundred. The joint forces consumed narcotic drugs and attacked. On 2nd August, the joint forces raided the Tatmadaw Hospital near the Northeastern Command and killed some patients there. Some patients were taken away. Battalions and forces under the command of North east Command resisted the enemy with all their might." said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

Because there were women, children and civilians in the battalions and forces of the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the Tatmadaw had to maintain its attack; some policewomen and their family members were killed as well, he said. 

The Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA) launched Operation-1027 on 27th October, 2023 and battles severely broke out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood in northern Shan State.

While seeing the MNDAA force

However, after the Haigen Agreement was reached through China's mediation, the two sides ceased fire. 

However, battles resumed between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA, the MDY-PDF, the DPLA joint forces on 25th June and the MNDAA, the BPLA, the DPLA joint forces started attacking Lashio on 3rd July after which battles broke out again.

Because the Myanmar Tatmadaw attacked the TNLA and the MNDAA with heavy weapons during the Haigen Agreement period, battles resumed, U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

" The TNLA and the MNDAA said that the Myanmar Tatmadaw violated the Haigen Agreement. Besides, the Myanmar Tatmadaw bombed by the hundred and shot with artillery. So, four troops of theirs were killed. So, they said they attacked." he said.

At present, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA, the TNLA, the MDY-PDF, the BPLA, the DPLA, the PLA joint forces in Lashio, Kyaukme, Momeik, Nawnghkio, northern Shan State as well as in Mogok, Madaya and Sintku, Mandalay Region.

CNI News

5 August 2024

He knew daily that there was illegal trade in the border areas, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) at the meeting of the Union Government held on 29th July. 

Economic analysts and academics are reviewing and discussing why there is illegal trade in the border areas. Illegal trade has emerged due to the weak economic system of the country, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" There is illegal trade because of system weakness. In the legal trade, if the tax is not too much, no one will conduct illegal trade. Mainly, there are barriers in the legal trade such as being difficult to work and having to wait to get a permit. There is no illegal trade in Thailand because its system is good. It's necessary to have no barriers." he said.

Illegal trade contains trading illegal goods such as arms, ammunition and narcotic drugs as well as trading legal goods without passing government departments.

Border trade trucks

The government should take action against those who are trading illegal goods while illegally trading legal goods could be cured by relaxing, an economic analyst told CNI News.

" Those who illegally trade legal goods want to reduce the cost. The process takes long as well. They have to pay a lot of taxes. There is quality control. There are medicines which can be imported only if you have a FDA certificate. Because they don't want to experience these difficulties as well as they want to reduce the cost. So, they illegally trade legal goods. The government should study illegal trade like this and consider which ones should be relaxed or which ones should be facilitated so that illegal trade can be reduced." he said.

Because illegal trade adversely affected the country's economy, it was still necessary to carry out carefully regarding trade as well as to be correct in relation to the border trade, said chairman of the SAC.

Besides, due to the unwanted costs on the way, commodity prices could go up and officials needed to supervise the prevention of the activities that would hamper the border trade, he added.

CNI News
3 August 2024

Military and political analysts are reviewing and discussing about why the troops of the United Wa State Party (UWSP/UWSA) entered Lashio where battles were severely breaking out.

The UWSA troops entered Lashio after informing the Myanmar Tatmadaw in advance on 27th July and deployed in some places.

The entry of UWSA forces might be possible to avoid further casualties from both sides and to reduce the damage of the city, Col. Khun Okkar, patron of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) told CNI News.

" In my opinion, it's likely that Wa intervened to avoid further casualties from both sides. Moreover, because the Wa troops are stationed in the city, air strikes can be reduced. And then, the city isn't damaged anymore. Although a city could be captured, if there are no people in that city, only broken houses will remain, there is no benefit. The city was not destroyed, only the administration changed. The new administration made schools and hospitals better. It could make residents more secure. It is called 'capture' as well. It is not good to capture the city only when it has turned into a big pile of ashes and bricks. So, Wa has maintained to avoid further damages, I think." he said.

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA ally joint forces in Lashio.  Wa troops entered Tangyan about 70 miles away from Lashio in multitude on 11th July.

The situation could be complicated if the armed conflict breaking out in northern Shan State spread to the south; organizations concerned needed to sit at the political roundtable, Sao Khun Sai, a person participating in the peace process, told CNI News.

While seeing a damaged building in Lashio

" northern Shan State, southern Shan State and eastern Shan State - there are different situations among them. Although the situations in eastern and southern parts of Shan State are not bad, the situations can change. I'm not sure whether the situations will change into better or worse. As a worse situation, if the conflicts in northern spread to the south and the east, the conditions many be complicated. So, all the stakeholders need to meet and discuss. If all the stakeholders including the UWSA and the RCSS accept that they need to discuss politically, the potential for peace is good." he said.

The UWSA controlled Hopang and Pan Lon which the Three Brotherhood Alliance captured during the first wave of Operation-1027 and the two towns were put under the administration of the UWSA.

The MNDAA force seen in Lashio

Myanmar was in a situation to collapse because of military conflicts.

Moreover, because of economic crisis, manufacturing decline; suspension of trading and damage to businesses, lives of the people were in a hopeless situation, problems should be solved in peaceful ways including political talks, stated the UWSP/UWSP on 30th July.

Moreover, the UWSP/UWSA released it would implement the peace with its own strength.

CNI News
3 August 2024

If the cooperative system which was not successful in Myanmar was reactivated, not only would it be unsuccessful, black market might also cover the entire country, an economic analyst told CNI News.

 According to the current situation of Myanmar, the cooperative system was the most appropriate in carrying out to make the Myanmar's economy develop, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council at the meeting of the Union Government held on 29th July, 2024.

"Myanmar's economic sector is now quite damaged. The SAC might implement the cooperative system without doing thorough research into the effects of the system. The prices of rice, for example, have been designated. But now there has been a shortage of rice supply. I ordered to send some rice to me. But they told me that they had run out of rice because of difficult transportation and so on. In fact, they have a lot of rice. But they don't want to sell it. Even in the current situation, the black market has already grown quite a bit. If the cooperative system is implemented, the black market will cover the whole country." said an economic analyst.

Successive governments implemented various economic systems and according to the current situation of the country, in carrying out to improve the economic sector, the cooperative system was the most appropriate, said chairman of the SAC.

While seeing a cooperative shop

The cooperative system is being used only in the SMEs in other countries and if Myanmar did so, it might be convenient, said economic analysts.

There is no country which uses the cooperative system to lead the economy of the whole country; although communist countries - China and Vietnam implemented the cooperative system, because they didn't succeed, they are using the market economy, an economic analyst told CNI News.
" Politics may be socialist or communist. But the economy is just the market economy. The cooperative is the business in which people with the same desire work together. The people all over the country - they can't have the same desire among them in any way. There two kinds of cooperatives and one is producers cooperative association and the other, the consumer cooperative association. The producers cooperative association is being used in other countries as well. But the consumers cooperative association, depending on the profits it won, give households how much rice or edible oil with quotas. What the association give you might not match with what you need. What it give you the quality might not match with what you want. The system was not successful at all. So, it was broken. I wonder why they want to reactivate the unsuccessful system in the past." he said.

The cooperative enterprise was able to produce only one percent of the Myanmar's GDP and private sector produced 70 percent of the GDP.