CNI News
21 March 2024

Muslims who live in Buthidaung Township protested against the Arakan Army (AA) on 19th March 2024. At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA.

The AA has already captured Rathedaung, Ponnagyun, Pauktaw, Minbya, Kyauktaw, Mrauk U, Myebon and Ranbye Townships and is launching offensives to Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships.

On the other hand, video files that the Tatmadaw is giving military training to Muslims in Rakhine State are coming out.

Community conflicts tend to break out in Rakhine State and lots of Muslim refugees have fled to Bangladesh.

CNI News

21 March 2024

Political and military analysts are reviewing and discussing what kind of state leaders of the United Wa State Party/the United Wa State Army (UWSP/UWSA) are demanding.

The leaders of the UWSP/UWSA tend to demand elected governments including leaders of the Tatmadaw to designate the Wa Self-administered Division as the Wa State.

The UWSA has recently won the confederation status and it possibly has demanded a type of state superior to the state provided by the 2008 Constitution, U Myo Kyaw, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), told CNI News.

While seeing Pankham (Pangsang) City, headquarters of the UWSA

" According to the 2008 Constitution, Wa is a special region. But Wa has demanded a state. In fact, Wa has won the confederate status. It has its sovereignty. The people from other states and regions can't enter the Wa region if the Wa authorities don't allow it. So, a kind of state that it has demanded will surely be superior to the current states' status that have been provided by the 2008 Constitution." he said.

Request to establish the Wa region as an autonomous national state by the UWSP/UWSA was agreed by policy, said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, leader of the Information Team of the State Administration Council (SAC) at the press conference held on 1st June, 2022. 

However, according to the multi-party democratic system, the matter would be discussed only after the Hluttaw was formed through a general election reportedly.

According to the 2008 Constitution, Hopang, Mongmao,  Panwai, Namphan, Metman and Pangsang Townships in Shan State were divided into two districts and have been designated as the Wa Self-Administered Division.

If the UWSA wanted the state status, it could get the status of a state provided by the 2008 Constitution, Administrative, judiciary and legislative powers are controlled by the central government. Because the UWSA is currently practising three powers, it is beyond the 2008 Constitution.

While seeing Pankham (Pangsang) City, headquarters of the UWSA

So, there is something questionable about what kind of state the UWSA is demanding and how to solve a situation in which a state superior to the one that has been provided  by the 2008 Constitution has not been allowed.

Because of rights such as national equal rights and self-determination, armed conflicts emerged and problems relating to the constitution needed to be solved, Dr.Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News.

" Armed conflicts have emerged due to the lack of national autonomy and equal rights. If all the stakeholders understand the problems. are related to the constitution, they can overcome the idea of having to dogmatically grip the 2008 constitution. In order to overcome this, if we found a political exit, the form that the union will be formed will be superior to the 2008 Constitution. If the union was formed only after the rights were changed, we would be able to find an answer that can solve armed conflicts, I think." he said.

After the Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA, TNLA and MNDAA) attacked and captured Hopang and Panglon in January, 2024, the UWSA seized control of these towns.

CNI News

21 March 2024

The People's Party (PP) demanded the authorities to take action against those who took advantage of the conscription law and were carrying out beyond the law, the party stated on 19th March, 2024. 

The People's Military Service Law came into force starting from 10th February 2024, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing signed the law and stated it. After that, concerns, running away to evade and corruption arose among the people.

"Private factory and workshop workers have understood that the temporary exemption from military service applies only to employees of state departments and are running away. So, it is difficult to make the industries go on operating." the PP stated.

While seeing the statement released by the People's Party

According to the Section.7 (b) of the People's Military Service Law, ward or village tract peace and development council must send the list of those who have reached the age of military service on 31st December to the township team summoning recruits for the people's military service law in accordance with the designation on 13th January which has been enacted, the PP stated.

So, according to the original law, ward or village tract administration is to make lists and send only and has no rights to cancel the people from the list including selecting and approving, said in the statement.

So, the State Administration Council (SAC) needed to exactly release the uniform bylaws and directions for the whole country to make the public easily understand so as to reduce the public concern regarding the application of the People's Military Service Law, the PP stated.

At present, ward or village administrators are collecting lists and forcing those in list to cast lots. Moreover, those who want to evade military service have to pay some money reportedly.

CNI News

20 March 2024

In making preparations during the Thingyan holiday, the number of people who will travel abroad were more than travelling within the country, U Naung Naung Han from the Myanmar Travel Entrepreneurs Association, told CNI News. 

Although travelling within the country during the Thingyan holiday might decrease in comparison with last year, the number of people who will go abroad has increased more than last year, he said.

While seeing Myanmar citizens at the airport

" There might be a little decline in the number of people who will travel within the country because there are still vacant hotel rooms that haven't been booked. Most travelling abroad were short-term visits a few months ago. But during the coming Thingyan holiday, long-term visits such as Buddha Gaya trip that takes one week or tendays are more because the coming Thingyan holiday is longer. And many trips to Europe have been sold. Myanmar people are to go to Vietnam in groups. Travelling abroad will increase a bit this year, I think." said U Naung Naung Han to CNI News.

Most domestic tourists are making arrangements to go abroad because some tourist destinations within the country have not been stable, said travel operators. During the last Thingyan holiday, most domestic tourists went to Ngapali, Chaungtha, Nwe Saung, southern Shan State, Bagan, Mandalay and Kachin State.

However, because some tourist destinations within the country have not been stable and there were transportation difficulties, domestic tourists might be able to go to Chaungtha and Nwe Saung only, U Thet Lwin Toe, managing director of Myanmar Voyages International Tourism, told CNI News.

While seeing the beach

" Especially domestic tourists will go to Nwe Saung and Chaungtha. There might not be the people who will go to Ngapali because the cost is too high. At a time like this, if you go to Heho, an air ticket will be paid over 2 lakh kyats. An air ticket to Bagan will be about 2 lakh kyats as well. But there is flight not everyday. So, people largely go to those places by car. Many Myanmar people will go to Thailand and Singapore. People have booked to go to Thailand until April. According to the current situation, young people and middle-aged people have prepared to go to these countries. Air tickets are also expensive." he said.

Many domestic tourists went to Chaungtha, Nwesaung, southern Shan State and Ngapali during the 2023 Thingyan holiday reportedly.

However, according to the current situations, trips to Chaungtha, Nwesaung, Bagan, Mandalay and southern Shan State are being arranged reportedly.

In travelling, rather than travelling with tourism industries, more tourists tend to travel on their own. Moreover, although there were a lot of pilgrimages in the past, there are reportedly only a few pilgrimages left reportedly.

CNI News

20 March 2024

The people are worried about the People's Military Service Law that was approved by the State Administration Council and the political circles are discussing about the remedy for the public concern. 

According the conscription law, ward administrators are collecting the lists of people who will have to serve in the military and summoning people to hold meetings in cities including Yangon and Naypyidaw.

The SAC needed to release exact regulations and directions to make the pubic know, U Ko Ko Gyi, chairman of the People's Party told CNI News.

While seeing the 2008 Constitution

" Every citizen is responsible to protect the country and the conscription law must be accepted. But depending on the situation and time, the public is so worried.". And we find that administration is weak because one place is different from another one. Because today is social media age, every piece of news reaches online. So, the people are running away or avoiding. Mainly, it's necessary to release exact regulations and directions." he said.

If collecting money or extortions occurred by the reason of conscription law, the people could report to the People's Party, he added.

" It's necessary to designate consistent and exact guidelines and directions for every level of administration. Otherwise, on the ground level, it's possible that the people try to evade the law after giving money or some officials are collecting money, which I've heard. So, if there were threats or extortion, we have given our phone numbers so that the people can complain. So, the SAC needs to release the uniform guidelines and directions." he said to CNI News.

While seeing Myanmar Tatmadaw

According the People's Military Service Law, every citizen, man ranged from 18 to 35 and woman ranged from 18 to 27, must serve in the military.

Moreover, all men aged 18-45 and women aged 18-35 experts who lives in a profession such as physician or engineer must be serve in the military.

Moreover, it was necessary to be transparent in implementing the conscription law and it would be more convenient if it was performed with the help of legal experts, Naing Than Shwe, spokesperson of the Mon Unity Party (MUP) told CNI News.

" As soon as this law has been approved, it was quite a hit among the public. This law was not enacted by the Hluttaw. Because the military council has enacted the law, it is a little unusual. Before the law was enacted, it must be known to the public in advance. And after the law has been approved, it must be explained thoroughly to the public. And the bylaw is needed to implement the law. Transparency is needed as well. And then, the places where will be complained and will take action against when there's something wrong. It will be more convenient if it is implemented with the help of legal experts among the people," he said.

Detailed bylaw regarding the conscription law has not been released and various rumors are spreading among the people who are worried.

Some authorities are asking for money by reason of the conscription law, said the people living in wards.

CNI News

20 March 2024

The leading team of the 7 EAO Alliance led by General Yawd Serk has been formed in order to implement political process agendas that were laid down at the plenary meeting of the 7 NCA signatories which stated on 18th March 2024.

Of the ten NCA signatories, the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), the New Mon State Party (NMSP), the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), and the KNU/KNLA-Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC) held their plenary meeting in Chiangmai, Thailand from 17th to 18th March, 2024.

And then, the leading team of the 7 EAO Alliance was formed at the meeting and General Yawd Serk, chairman of the RCSS was appointed as the leader of the team and Naing Aung Min, vice chairman of the NMSP, vice leader.

Moreover, Col.Sai Ngin from the RCSS was appointed as general secretary and .Col.Saw Kyaw Nyunt from the KNU/KNLA-Peace Council, as associate secretary. Members are Naing Aung Ma Ngay, Brig-Gen Saw Sein Win, Kyayakoat, Col.Khaing Kyaw Hlaing, one from the PNLO and U Myo Win. 

While seeing Col.Sai Ngin, Col.Saw Kyaw Nyunt and Ma Nan Yin Yin Soe

" As our 7 EAO Alliance, we will continue our efforts until we can build a federal democratic union after discussing and negotiating with relevant elements, solving the current political crisis by political means." the 7 EAO Alliance stated.

Their ultimate goal was to build a federal democratic union that guarantees national equal rights and full self-determination and the expectation is to build a sustainable peace through a democratic transitional process, said in the statement.

The 7 EAO Alliance would carry out creating situations that can reveal public attitudes through all-inclusive dialogue, informing organizations concerned of the responsibility to protect the people, and holding political talks among all stakeholders to produce meaningful results, it stated.

In tackling the current conflict, the alliance will carry out more to develop the landscapes and methods in order to identify the attitudes of the elements who want to find a peaceful solution as well as to inform the organizations that are responsible to protect the people of having a duty to protect the people, said in the statement.

CNI News

19 March 2024

Their seven NCA signatories would start governing their controlled territories with their self-governing system of self-determination, said General Yawd Serk, chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State. 

The seven NCA signatories were holding a meeting relating to peace processes in Chiangmai, Thailand.

General Yawd Serk said the above at the meeting that was held from 17th to 19th March, 2024.

"As our seven NCA signatories, we'll have to start administering the regions that we have seized control of with a self-governing system of self-determination. We'll have to carry out administration, security, economy, education, health, livelihood and other services for the people living in our regions. We'll have to build a federal democratic union step by step. On the other hand, the seven NCA signatories need to perform things that we all agree together and to do those we don't agree separately."said General Yawd Serk.

In the same way, ethnic nationalities would have a thought beyond federalism in 2025, said Lt-Gen Gunmaw, vice chairman of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) when he met with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in 2018.

So, EAOs have gradually changed thinking from federal to confederation, pointed out a person who is taking part in the peace process.

The Arakan Army has proclaimed that it must take the status that is not lower than that of the United Wa State Army (UWSA). 

The meeting was attended by General Yawd Serk, chairman of the RCSS and Saw Mutu Say Phoe, former chairman of the Karen National Union (KNU).

Chit Min Tun

CNI Article 

19 March 2024

Having said that federalism in Myanmar was nothing short of secession, the Tatmadaw conducted a coup d'état on 2nd March, 1962 when Myanmar was enjoying full democracy under the government led by U Nu. 

However, because of inequalities in the distribution of administrative power and natural resources, non-Burman nationalities demanded to use federalism as well as to distribute administrative power and national resources.

After saying that the federalism that was demanded was was equal to demanding to secede and disintegrate the country, the Tatmadaw led by U Ne Win seized power and silenced the voice of federalism. 

While the AA leader Maj-Gen Tun Myat Naing

However, when the government led by U Thein Sein came to power, the federalism was accepted under the title of peace, which the Tatmadaw expressed. However, building peace and implementation of federalism that have been started since 2012 have not been successful until 2024.After that, the rule of law has been destroyed throughout the country and the armed conflict has grown more.

At the same time, the military strength of the Tatmadaw has also become weak and the Tatmadaw has become weak in administrative sector. So, some armed groups fighting against the Tatmadaw are saying the words - self-determination and autonomy and have started implementing.

There are two kinds of self-determinations and the one has the rights to secede and the other has no rights to do so. Some EAOs were talking about self-determination with no rights to secede and others, one with the rights to do so in the past. However, they are even talking about autonomy now.

The Arakan Army (AA) has said that it would make an attempt to get the status that is not lower than that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) has won. At present in Myamar, EAOs that have won the confederation status that is higher than the federalism are the UWSA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA).

Now, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has started implementing confederation.

While seeing the UWSA

"As our seven NCA signatories, we'll have to start administering the regions that we have seized control of with self-governing system of the self-determination. We'll have to carry out for administration, security, economy, education, health, livelihood and other services for the people living in our regions. We'll have to build a federal democratic union step by step. On the other hand, we, the seven NCA signatories need to perform things that we all agree together and to do those we don't agree separately." said General Yawd Serk, chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) at the meeting of the seven NCA signatories held from 17th to 19th March, 2024.

In the same way, ethnic nationalities would have a thought beyond federalism in 2025 and a federal union should be built quickly, said Lt-Gen Gunmaw, vice chairman of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) when he met with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in 2018.

Moreover, If the situation was formed to establish a country, Ta'ang people would have been ready, said Brig-Gen Ta Bon Kyaw, general secretary of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on 18th August, 2022.

While seeing Brig-Gen Ta Bon Kyaw, general secretary of the TNLA

" Political demands will higher. And then, according to regional geopolitics and global politics, if this country couldn't changed into a federal union, it could break up into small countries. So, Our Ta'ang people need to think about it thoroughly. We need to prepare thoroughly. When a federal union is built, we need to carry out to be ready as a state and to protect our people. Otherwise, because of geopolitics and global politics or as revolutions are stronger, if small countries emerged, we need to prepare to build a country of our own" said Brig-Gen Ta Bon Kyaw.    

All things considered, EAOs review the current Myanmar politics, weakness of the Tatmadaw, the public opposition to the Tatmadaw and international situation, and are making preparations to build confederations.

Otherwise, they might imagine to build the status that is higher than confederation. The Tatmadaw that opposed to the federalism and seized power, considering that it could disintegrate the country - how it will solve the situation in which confederation has started looming over federalism is very interesting.

CNI Article

17 March 2024

At present armed forces across the country are carrying out to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw that everybody knows.

Of the armed organizations which are carrying out to topple the Tatmadaw, Let's study how the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is implementing its aim.

The KIA started providing military training and supporting arms to those who had mind to fight against the Tatmadaw in Sagaing Region bordering Kachin State. And then, the KIA led military operations, developed support channels and connected with other armed forces.

After the KIA had been able to manage these situations surely, it laid down three military strategies and implemented them to control Sagaing Region. These military strategies are (1) to conduct a military operation centered on Banmauk Township, (2) to carry out a Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kantblu) military operation, and (3) to conduct a military operation centered on Tigyaing Township.

As No.1 military operation, if the KIA is able to control Banmauk Township, it can go on attacking Indaw and Katha. And then, it can attack Pinlebu. If the KIA has been able to control Pinlebu, it can easily attack Puaungpyin, Shwe Pyi Aye and Homalin.

Shanni People 

In order to be able to attack these townships, according to the military strategy, Banmauk Township is important to the KIA. And then, it will be able to develop support channels easily. The channels that are able to support arms to Banmauk are the channels going from Mohnyin Township to Maw Han, Mawluu and Indaw.

Another channel is one going from Shwegu Township, Kachin State to Katha Township, Sagaing Region from which there are channels going to Indaw and Banmauk.

No.2 is the Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kantblu) military operation which the KIA will continue to control Kawlin after it has been able to control Katha for the first time. And then the KIA comes down and could continue to control Kantblu.

Even though the KIA lost control of Kawlin after taking control of it, the KIA could make an attempt to control it again at any time. So, the KIA might occupy at Kyun Hla and protect from attacking Kawlin by the Tatmadaw and could put pressure on  Kantblu.

KIA- PDF

To make this operation successful, arms and ammunitions can be supported by the channels from Shwegu, Mohnyin and Indaw in Kachin State.

Third operation is the one centered on Tigyang Township. As the implementation of this operation, the KIA, the AA, and the PDF joint forces are attacking Tigyaing Town and have seized control of rural area of the township. Arms and ammunition can be sent to Tigyaing mainly from Shwegu Township, Kachin State and also from Katha. In addition, arms and ammunition can be supported from Mabein region.

After the KIA, AA and PDF have been able to have controlled the entire Tigyaing Township, they will be able to control upper Ayeyarwady River and the route between Sagaing-Mandalay and Kachin State. And then the KIA will be able to put military pressure on Mandalay.

The Chin National Force (CNF), the Chin National Defense Force (CNDF), the People's Defense Force (PDF), the Kuki National Organization Burma (KNO-Burma) and the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) are collaboratively attacking Tamu, Khampat,Kalay Townships in Sagaing Region.

ABSDF

These forces are being provided with arms and ammunition by the KIA that is striving to control the entire Sagaing Region. In any case, because the KIA is implementing the three military strategies in cooperation with thses armed groups, if the KIA succeeded in its operations, it would be able to control the entire Sagaing Region.

If the KIA was able to control the entire Sagaing Region, arms and ammunition could be sent to Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States without any obstacles.

And then, the AA, the CNF, the CNDF and the PDF would be able to strive for the liberation of Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States.

So, the strategy for controlling the entire Sagaing Region will produce the battles for the liberation of Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandalay Regions. However, the KIA is facing some obstacles in implementing the strategy to control the entire Sagaing.

It is the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) that is striving for the stability and peace of the middle part of Sagaing Region and upper parts where there are regions that Shanni nationalities live and owned.

The SNA is being active especially in Tigyaing, Kawlin, Wuntho, Pinlebu, Katha, Shwe Pyi Aye, Tamu, kalay, Banmauk, Indaw, Phaungpyin, Homalin, Mawlike and Thanan regions and it is making efforts for the reginal stability and peace and to get Shanni State.

Because Shanni region is located in the area where the KIA is implementing its three military strategies, battles are breaking out between the SNA and the KIA/PDF joint forces. So, if the KIA was able to organize the SNA, it can easily implement its strategies.

SNA

Otherwise, the KIA can find it difficult to do so. Therefore, whether the KIA will organize or annihilate the SNA is important to the KIA.

In the same way, the Tatmadaw would be able to have upper hand if it was able to organize the SNA.

The KIA was putting pressure on India since before with its supporting Naga and Meitei armed groups to please China. If the KIA was able to control Sagaing Region, it could put pressure on India more because the KIA is supporting arms and ammunition to the Naga armed groups that are waging armed resistance against India and has allowed the groups to set their military camps in Laiza, headquarters of the KIA.

So, if the KIA was able to contain the entire Sagaing Region, it would be able to threaten the national security and interests of India.

There is a question whether the KIA can afford the cost of arms and ammunition that it will support in order to control the entire Sagaing Region and to go on waging battles in Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandalay Regions.

CNF

In fact, it cannot afford. If so,  which force is there behind the KIA? According to some military analysts, China is behind the KIA's military operations. Others said that the operations might contain some of the US's strategies.

At any rate, the KIA won't dare to ignore China's attitude. So, the KIA will use a two-way diplomatic method so as not to lose relation with both US and China.

The above-mentioned situations are related to how important Sagaing Region it is to the armed forces trying to overthrow the Tatmadaw, to China and to the Tatmadaw.

But we'll have to keep a close watch with what will happen next.