CNI Interview
19 Nov 2024
China, India and Thailand, Myanmar's neighboring countries are taking part in the issue of Myanmar more than before.
China has already held meetings with the State Administration Council several times.
Moreover, Thai PM Paetongtarn offered Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing that Thailand would help in the issue of Myanmar at the Great Mekong Sub-region Summit in Kunming, China where she separately met with the senior general.
CNI News interviewed Col. Khun Okkar, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory about the above-mentioned situations.
CNI News ။ ။ What could change in politics, military and economy of Myanmar after chairman of the SAC returned from China?
Col. Khun Okkar ။ ။ We can't expect many things. In my opinion, political and economic problems must be firstly solved. If you want to contrast the war-frame, you'll have to expand the political frame. If China discussed about expanding political frame, ways must be found to contrast war frame kind of.
I expect a big change will become before the end of this year or in six months to come about how to contrast the war frame or reduce armed conflicts. Some changes can take place in military and economics. Big changes won't happen in economy.
While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing with Chinese PM on 6th November 2024
CNI News ။ ။ Thai PM and chairman of the SAC met in the Great Mekong Subregion Summit where Thai PM offerred that Thailand would help for the peace of Myanmar with a good will. So, what will happen from the offer of Thai PM?
Col. Khun Okkar ။ ။ Former Thai PM Thaksin, father of the current Thai PM, met with some stakeholders of Myanmar early this year to discuss about the peace of Myanmar. Next, when Laos takes the chairmanship of the ASEAN, it tries to call a forum regarding the peace of Myanmar but in vain. And Indonesia called a forum in October.
When it invited the stakeholders from Myanmar, the representatives from the NUG and other organizations went to Indonesia, but the SAC didn't send its representatives there.
But the forum didn't produce any good results. But if all the stakeholders attend the discussion that will be held in Thailand, in 2025 conflicts will decrease and official political dialogues will probably arise.
While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with Thai PM Paetongtarn on 6th November 2024
CNI News ။ ။ What's opinion about how much Thai PM of the Pheu Thai Party has influence on EAOs and the NUG in Myanmar?
Col. Khun Okkar ။ ။ The conflict of Myanmar directly impact on Thailand, a neighboring country of Myanmar. Thailand has accepted those who came from Myanmar for many reasons. Myawaddy border trade route, the main Myanmar-Thailand border trade, has been entirely closed.
Domestic conflict of Myanmar hurts Thailand most. So, Thailand is trying to find a way to solve the conflict. It goes without saying. Thailand needs to watch how much The SAC will accede to the Thai request.
Meanwhile, China will cooperated with Thailand and next year, Malaysia will be head of the ASEAN. If the three countries cooperate as the third party for the peace of Myanmar, official political dialogues probably will arise.
CNI News ။ ။ China has said it will help the election that will be held by the SAC. China wants the peace of Myanmar. The peace talks that will be led by China and the peace talks that will be led by Thailand - which one do you think will be able to be implemented first?
Col. Khun Okkar ။ ။ Thailand is carrying out first because it has made a plan for about three months. It seems that China will have to support Thailand because China has influence on the three northern allies.
While seeing Myanmar EAOs
But it doesn't pay attention to Mon armed group, the KNU and other armed groups in southern part of Myanmar as well as Chin armed groups. There's no point distinguishing conflicts of half of the country. The discussion that will be held in Thailand in December will cover the whole country.
CNI News ။ ။ Is it likely that all the stakeholders will attend the meeting that will be held by Thailand?
Col. Khun Okkar ။ ။ Mainly, we must watch whether the SAC will send its delegates to the meeting. The SAC didn't send its delegates when the opposition elements took part. When India invited, delegates and some EAOs went to New Delhi, but the opposition elements didn't go there.
When Indonesia invited, the opposition elements went there, but Naypyidaw didn't send its delegates there. So, several informal meetings will have to be held kind of to make all the stakeholders take part in.
