CNI Interview

5 August 2022

The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and Tatmadaw are in military tension in Mine Shu, Southern Shan State.

During this period of military tension, on the other hand, General Min Aung Hlaing, the head leader of Tatmadaw, and the delegation led by SSPP's vice chairperson-1 Sao Khur Tai who is also the commander-in-chief, met on August 4 and discussed peace process.

At the same time, due to the news release of the death sentence of Ko Jimmy, Ko Phyo Zayar Thaw, Ko Hla Myo Aung and Ko Aung Thura Zaw on July 25, the SAC is now facing the condemnation from both domestic and international community.

CNI has interviewed Sai Leik, General Secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) regarding those situations.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Vice Chairman of SSPP (1) while meeting with Than Khe Than

Q ။ ။ I would like to know Uncle Sai Lake’s opinion on what should do next concerning being asked to withdraw the SSPP army in Mine Shu.

A ။ ။ The Mine Shu case is not the one which just started. It has been happening since June. The main thing is that if I’m not mistaken, the Myanmar military is dissatisfied with the good relation of the SSPP and the UWSA. Mainly, with the UWSA and SSPP troops combined together, Pin Laoung, Southern Shan State then Pha Lie Toe, next Mine Pyin Toe, from there Kyaukgu and InTaw, those Kyaukgu InTaw belongs to YatSawk area.

So, as it becomes closer to their security line, they were worried and asked the 3 army camps from Mine Shu to move, this is what I understand. In the end, even if the 3 army camps there do not move and the camps around Salin ridge, the west side of this Pin Laoung, is withdrawn, I suppose the Myanmar military steps back.

Q ။ ။ Yes, sir. From the military side, they said this year is their year of peace. First of all, I saw that SSPP is in the list to participate in their peace talks. When this case happened, SSPP didn’t attend. Now there will be the second time soon. So, what do you think military should ease?

A ။ ။ Although the military said this year is their year of peace, he does not show any desire for peace with the organizations that are revolting and resisting him. There are no activities for peace at all from their side. Also, they said that they will liaise for peace with which group and not at all with which group.

And his stand on the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) is not sane. So, what happens is that they called to discuss, but do not care about the other side’s talks and points of views. They just focused only on and talked about what they want. Even in the media, they disclose false and misleading information. There are some incorrect information they revealed which the EAOs actually didn’t say. For example, EAOs support 2023 election.

Jimmy, If you grow up, to be beautiful, While seeing Ko Aung Thu Ra Zaw

In truth, there might not be that kind of discussion. This shows that the military’s position is not proper. And, if they truly want to build peace, they definitely should declare a ceasefire nationwide with the sincere intentions. The last thing is that concerning the ASEAN’s 5-Point Consensus, we consider that he has not exactly followed them.

Thus, with the EAOs, we see that he does not have honest intentions, followed by the conclusion that it is impossible to build peace.

Q ။ ။ This 2022 is designated as the year of peace. He declared NUG and PDFs as terrorists. If he truly wants peace, should these be eased as he is now mostly confronting with PDFs?

A ။ ။ It is absolutely right that he needs to ease. Whether it is related to PDF of NUG or EAOs, he should let the individuals and organizations recognized by the international community intercede and testify honestly and should offer peace with sincere purpose. If it is not like that and treated the citizens as enemies, arrested, tortured and like the death penalty imposed on political prisoners, if they don’t ease those and apologize for what have been done, it would be totally impossible for both sides to reconcile.

Q ။ ။ Yes. Now the ones that have been sentenced to death are politicians. As they are democracy activists, isn’t this death sentence an incendiary act to the current peace matters and political issues they are working? Isn’t the hatred growing big?

A ။ ။ To be blunt, I suppose he just crushed the hope which was there. In the announcement of the special representative of Cambodia, they said they have found a way to meet and discuss with Daw Aung San Su Kyi.
As it was heard that this side had given the green light for having discussions, most of the people thought there would have been some peace-related matters. He broke that kind of hope with this death penalty case. So, the odds for peace talks or political talks have almost gone. I see that this wound will have to be healed at least 2 or 3 years.

Q ။ ။ What do you think is the military’s attitude on diplomacy? The British Ambassador was expelled a few days ago, so he does not maintain relations with other countries and is in contact with Russia in terms of the security and military and with China in terms of the business. Thus, do you think he will just communicate with these two countries like a closed-door policy?

A ။ ။ He only has China and Russia to rely on. And even between China and Russia, it is seen that he has to deal with them depending on the sectors. As you said, when it comes to business, he has to be in contact with China and regarding the arms supply, he has to depend on Russia more.
But I don’t think he can go long-term with that plan. He has no spare cash. As there is no more foreign currency, it is not possible for the long term. Like they have said at the beginning when they took power, they think they can just have relations with a small number of countries. I see it the copy of the style used by NaWaTa in 1988-1989. But the situation back then was not like today.

Back then, people just talked about democracy, now is the revolution duration with the slogan of Federal Democracy and the fall of the military dictatorship. The situation is no loger the same. Thus, if his handling method just continues as before, the country will only be destroyed. They are also going to have to suffer worse than this. I don’t see anything good in the long run.

ASEAN Special Representative Prat So Khun and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

Q ။ ။ As for the military, do you think holding talks with Daw Aung San Su Kyi and the upcoming elections which he will hold will be his political exit?

A ။ ။ I see that this is not something we can calculate exactly. Most of the PDFs now are not in the position to accept the matter of reconciliation. They are expecting more than that. So, I suppose there will not be a way out with just holding the election in 2023.

Q ။ ။ Coming back to the SSPP case, SSPP is a Shan army. As the Shan army is told to not stay there and just stay here, what will Shan people’s opinions be on those matters?

A ။ ။ In fact, if the public can speak openly and freely, they will just want to have their army in their own state. There is no benefit of having the army that does not concern with their state. They have already experienced for 4,5,60 years. Everybody knows that the army coming from another state will not do anything beneficial for their state.

So, it is sure that Shan state will also want to take responsibility for its own security in line with Shan State’s army. The same goes for other states. So, even if giving orders, threatening and hegemony like the way they used in the past, will be continued to apply, we now see that it will not work in the long term.

Q ။ ။ Yes. Now, according to the news reports in the Shan state area, the military has been increasing its strength. This SSPP also looks like they are ready too. So, if there is war between them, how much suffering will the citizens face?
A ။ ။ The people of Shan state have already nearly-adapted to the war. To be clear, when the rainy season comes every year, they have to suffer the effects of war for many years. There is nothing worse for him than this. Even if there is not war with the Myanmar military, there still is the battle with Shans themselves or with the ethnic groups each other, thus still they need to flee the war area.

NSCA and SSPP delegation

They often have to face the wars. So, even if there is the war with the Myanmar military now, the people cannot do anything but to avoid it as usual. They have no choice. The best is that there is no war and if it can be done in a negotiated way, then the public will be relieved.

Q ။ ။ Yes. With the case of SSPP camp being asked to be moved and the military’s year of peace, what do you want to say as the final remark?

A ။ ။ As I said earlier, the army camps around this Salin ridge are close to their army based in Ba Htoo, Yak Sauk, and this also is the border of Pa-O National Army (PNO), and it is also the old place of RCSS.

Therefore, as they want to get back these areas, I consider they ask us to move to Mine Shu. However, as SSPP who has already owned its place, it is something to consider if they can comply with that. According to what SSPP spokesperson disclosed, if there is a gunshot, it will not just be in one place, they will blow up all of their dominions, thus this is not the situation that anyone from both sides will give up on.

If it is approached in the violent and forceful way, the gunshots may explode, wars can happen, those are unavoidable. If they deliberately continue knowing the consequences, I just would like to consider it as short-sighted.

CNI News

5 August 2022

A delegation led by Vice Chairman of the Shan State Progressive Party/ Shan State Army and Chief of Staff Sao Khay Tai and State Administration Council Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing discussed the peace process 4th August.

The SSPP delegation, which arrived in Nay Pyi Taw on 3rd August, was led by Vice Chairman and Chief of Staff Sao Khay Tai and comprised Vice Chairman (2) Sao Khun Sai and central committee members Sai Naw Leik and Sai Phone Han.

Neither side disclosed the contents of their discussions today.

The SSPP delegation meets with their SAC counterpart on 4th August.

After holding talks with the SAC chairman, the delegation will hold discussions with a peace team made up of Lt-Gen Yar Pyae, Lt-Gen Moe Myint Tun and Lt-Gen Win Bo Shein on 5th January.

Recently, tensions between the SSPP and the SAC highted after the latter forcefully asked the former to withdraw troops from three camps in Monghsu Township in Shan State (South).

Then, both sides agree to hold negotiations.

The map showing the location of three SSPP camps asked to withdraw from by the Tatmadaw.

The SSPP was one of the 10 EAOs that agreed to hold talks with the Tatmadaw after receiving invitations from SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, which was extended on 22nd April, 2022.

Other EAOs including the RCSS, the UWSA, the NDAA (Mongla), the NMSP, the PNLO, the ALP, the KNU/KNLA (Peace Council), the DKBA and the LDU held talks with the SAC between 20th May and 7th July, 2022.

CNI News

5 August 2022

The SAC’s statement said Mr.Toru Kubota, who communicated with the participants in the pro-democracy protests and appointed the place to protest, is being detained and charged. He has been charged under immigration law 13-1, visa violation and 505(a) according to the SAC’s statement.

Japanese citizen Mr. Toru Kubota arrived in Yangon from Thailand on July 1st with a tourist visa. It is known that on the evening of July 30th, he was arrested while recording the protest where more than 10 people participated near City Mart, South Dagon, with phone and camera.

Demanding the release of Toru Kubota, a Japanese citizen who has been arrested (AFP)

It is described that if someone committed any crime in Section 13-1 (which Japanese citizen Toru Kubota is charged with), a minimum sentence of six months to a maximum of five years in prison can be imposed, and according to the penal code 505(a) of defaming the state, that person can be charged with imprisonment up to two years or any kind of fine or both punishments can be imposed.

CNI News

5 August 2022

As successive governments promised to give priority to agriculture but failed to do so effectively, they were indifferent to the SAC chairman’s promise to promote agriculture, farmers told the CNI.

In his speech on 1st August, the SAC chairman said that priority would be given to agriculture and livestock breeding and utmost efforts were being exerted to provide farmers with fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation water.

U Ko Ko Lay, a farmer from Kyaukpadaung, told the CNI, “We do not expect anything from the government because priority has been given to agriculture for eons but only those who were well connected with government departments could enjoy benefits. The assistance has never reached the lowest levels. Even when they did reach us, they were just trying to attract the media attention. It is also very difficult to help all farmers effectively. At present, farmers are encountering various problems including lack of income and it will be more difficult to help farmers effectively. So, we do not expect anything from the government.”

    A cattle breeding farm.

To effectively help farmers, it was important to take measures to lower the skyrocketing prices of agricultural inputs, Ko Sithu, a farmer from Ayeyarwady Region, told the CNI.

Ko Sithu said, “It is only possible when market exchange rates of US$ against MMK fall. As long as the market exchange rates continue to rise, farmers will suffer the impacts. When we sell our produce, we are paid much lower than prevailing prices before the harvest. Everything rests on the market US$ exchange rate against MMK. As long as the US$ exchange rates rise against MMK, the prices of fuel, fertilizers and pesticides will rise.”

Currently, farmers had to use natural fertilizers like cattle manure instead of chemical fertilizers. Therefore, they had to use about 60 bags of natural fertilizers for a farm plot where they needed three bags of chemical fertilizers previously.

             Farmers irrigate their farms.

It cost about MMK 300,000 to buy three bags of chemical fertilizer while 60 bags of natural fertilizers were available at MMK 150,000.

Therefore, it would be a viable alternative for the government to help farmers produce natural fertilizers, U Ko Ko Lay, the farmer from Kyaukpadaung, said.

However, it was difficult for some farmers, who had to rely on chemical fertilizers enormously, to use natural fertilizers immediately and would have to take time to adopt a new practice, U Aung Kyaw Mya, a Rakhine farmer, told the CNI.

Although there were irrigation facilities in Rakhine State, farmers there had to rely on seasonal rains but the state was undergoing droughts recently and needed irrigation water supply for agriculture, he added.

U Aung Kyaw Mya told the CNI, “It can be said that Rakhine State is divided into the northern and southern parts. Fresh water is available in the northern part but that is not the case in the southern part. As the coastal areas and inland areas are divided by mountain ranges, we can even grow the second crops there. If the government really wants to help and measures will be taken to supply irrigation water to our farms, we can even grow the second crops. There are about 1.2 million acres of farmland in the state. If the government can really help, our incomes will increase twice as much as usual and our living standards will be higher.”

The SAC chairman said in his speech on 1st August that MMK 400 billion out of MMK 491 billion set aside for the national natural disaster management would be allocated for funds for agro-based businesses.

CNI News

5 August, 2022

Democratic Karen Army (DKB A) and Karen National Union (KNU) leaders deliberated and reached an agreement to handle the case of the Kow Thuy Air Army (KTLA), which was formed by General Saw Nadal Mya after breaking away from KNDO and to reunify the two Karen armed groups (DKBA – KNU).

After the meeting of DKBA and KNU leaders on August 3, 2022 emerged 5 consensus points.

A person in close acquaintance with DKBA and KNU said, “Those 5 agreements are true. The regional stability and finding a way to prevent wars are our main concerns. This is our preparation to build the one and only federal army in the future federal era. That (the case of the formation of the Koru Army) will be discussed and negotiated in their in-person meeting.”

The five points that DKBA and KNU leaders met and agreed upon are:

1. DKBA Chief of Staff General Steele and KNU Lt. Col. Nel Dar Htoo are to shoulder the responsibility regarding the KTLA issue.

2. DKBA and KNU have verbally agreed to reunification. In the meantime, a temporary brand that symbolizes the union of the grassroots forces will be coordinated and installed.

3. Then, as number three, the two sides have agreed and decided to meet once a month if possible.

4. It is agreed to cancel the 1/94 statement issued by the KNU center for the DKBA.

5. In order to put an end to the ongoing enemy strike, the DKBA Chief of Staff General Steele is to take charge and enter into negotiation with SAC. If they do not agree to a negotiation and put up an attack with a large force, it is agreed to join forces altogether to proceed with the matter.

Statement of DKBA

“It (1/94) was proposed by DKBA and 1/94 was the organization that KNU broke away from, a motion to withdraw the letter designated as an enemy organization. If it is not withdrawn, there will be inevitable friction between DKBA and KNU. That’s why they agreed,” said a person familiar with DKBA and KNU.

Among the five points agreed upon by DKBA and KNU leaders during the meeting, the last decision number 5 is absolutely inconsistent with the attitude of our Democratic Karen Army (DKBA), stated with DKBA’s Chief of Staff, General Saw Steele’s signature today (August 4th).

To the DKBA and KNU meeting on August 3rd, the DKBA Chief of Staff, General Steel (Saw Steel), Operation Commander Colonel San Aung, Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Shwewa, Chief of Staff, Colonel Vernyu, Command: 1 Brigadier General Sai Kyaw Hla; Headquarters G2 Major Samin, and Commander-in-Chief Colonel Sein Win attended.

Then, on the KNU side, Colonel Ro Yae Khin, in charge of the Defense Department, General Secretary Captain Padotado General Johnny, Chief of Staff So Bo Boe village head, Captain Thopa, Commander of the 7th Brigade

Brigadier General Ford Battalion Commander Lt. Col. Nadal Htoo, and Captain Mugay, the company commander, reportedly attended.

CNI News

4 August 2022

If the recent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had aimed not to promote economic cooperation but to enhance arm deals, peace would be more elusive in Myanmar, Writer U Htet Myet told the CNI.

The Russian foreign minister visited Myanmar on a day return trip on 3rd August and met with SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Foreign Minister U Wunna Maung Lwin.

U Htet Myet said that he would welcome Lavrov if he had visited Myanmar for economic cooperation and oil deals but it would be unacceptable if he had come to Myanmar to sell weapons during public security disasters amid the ongoing armed conflicts.

U Htet Myet told the CNI, “If they had come to Myanmar to offer assistance, we would have to thank them. However, it would be unacceptable if they had visited Myanmar to sell weapons and to perpetuate the armed conflicts. I have to say this because we want to restore peace and build a peaceful and prosperous country. So, it is necessary to restore peace out of integrity and goodwill and to take a correct democratic path.”

Writer Htet Myet

The Russian foreign minister held discussions with his Myanmar counterpart on promotion of bilateral relations, cooperation in economic and culture sectors and close coordination with the Eurasian Economic Union and the United Nations, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Myanmar.
However, Political Analyst Dr. Aung Myo told the CNI, “It was unlikely that the Russia foreign minister visited Myanmar for massive investment and arm deals would surely be discussed during the trip.

Dr. Aung Myo said, “Russia is the only source of high tech weapons for the SAC and we could have expected that they would surely discuss arm deals.”

After holding discussions with the SAC chairman and his Myanmar counterpart, the Russian foreign minister proceeded to the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

CNI News

4 August 2022

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the SAC issued a statement on 3rd August, saying it opposed the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, which caused instabilities in the region.

The statement says, “Myanmar is deeply concerned by the visit of Ms. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States of America to Taiwan (Chinese-Taipei) which is causing escalation of tensions on the Taiwan Straits.

The SAC statement also says, “Myanmar opposes any provocative actions causing instabilities in the region and attempts that aim to interfere in the internal affairs of other states.”

Therefore, Myanmar calls all concerned parties to deescalate the tensions through constructive dialogue and peaceful negotiation for peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits.

Nancy Pelosi and Taiwan President Tsai Ing Wen in Taiwan. (AFP)

Myanmar fully supports the ‘One China Policy’ and reaffirms that Taiwan is an integral part of the People's Republic of China.”

As Myanmar has adopted the non-aligned foreign policy, the statement over the Taiwan trip of Nancy Pelosi raised questions, some political observers said.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan island on 2nd August and held discussions with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing Wen.

China strongly rejected the trip and announced that it would conduct military exercises until 7th August.

CNI News

4 August, 2022

According to Myanmar highway cargo operators, highway freight operations have hit a snag due to scarcity of goods and low productivity.

“The rainy season is a time when goods are scarce, but this year has made it worse,” said the Chairman of the Association of Myanmar Highway Fright Transport Service Entrepreneurs, U Kyin Thein, to CNI news agency.

U Kyin Thein said, “Last year was a period of goods scarcity but this year’s record is even less than last year’s. Indeed, the goods are in short supply during the rainy season but it is in a shorter supply than the last year. Productivity decreased. Productivity decreases due to scarcity of raw materials. Merchants also have less business. We also face a business decline in transportation since merchant trade and productivity of goods decrease.

Moreover, the business owners said that the goods are becoming scarce due to changes in the export/import policy in the export/import industry.

 A freight car carrying watermelons (AFP)

Due to the scarcity of these goods, the current highway freight businesses are at a standstill of up to 70 percent, said a highway goods entrepreneur.

He said, "Goods are scarce, both Export and Import are low. The scarcity of goods means less export and import. Another thing is that construction materials are also in a stagnant state, for example, cement pulling, stone pulling, and sand pulling. All those things are at a standstill. That is why car-related jobs are falling into a decline and about 70 percent are now facing a complete stagnation.”

At present, highway freight transport companies are facing a shortage of goods during the rainy season. However, when the in-season time comes, the abundance of crops certainly revives the productivity of businesses.

“However, there has been no relaxation of export/import policy restrictions and if the situation continues, the goods may continue to be scarce in the next open season” said
a freight forwarder to CNI news agency.

While loading cargo at a Thai-Myanmar border trade station (GETTY IMAGES)

He said, "Even if the open season comes, it will depend on the export and import situation. The business usually picks up in the open season.”

“Despite this year’s open season, the low supply of export and import will undoubtedly entail a scarcity of goods. I figured it would continue this way,” he said.

Highway freight operations currently include kitchen appliances, and fruits

We are only exporting goods that are parcel items. Goods such as beans, corn, sesame and rice which are not only crops but also exported goods are now reportedly in low supply.

In addition, a policy in some areas which stipulates electronic devices, wire chords, and oil must be transported only with a certificated of approval by the respective Minister of Lands, subsequently leads to a short supply goods and an economic decline due to this difficulty in transportation.

CNI News

4 August, 2022

Khaing Paulin, a member of the Central Executive Committee of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) was reportedly captured by Rakhine Army (ULA/AA) according to the announcement published in August 3rd.

ALP’s report mentions that ULA/AA arrested Lt. Col. Khaing Paulin in his home on August 2, an arrest involving an Eighth grade student, Maung Soe Min Naing alongside him.

However, it was not mentioned in which region the arrests were made.

The ALP said, "This process has undermined Rakhine national unity and our party views it as an event that should never happen between the Rakhine Revolutionary Organizations.

Announcement of ALP (ALP-fb)

The ULA/AA team also voiced that some leaders of their party as well as their comrades who were arrested in the past still have not been released until today.”

ALP then issued a statement saying to abstain from all actions that attempt to corrupt the sanctity of national unity since ALP/ALA and ULA/AA are of one nation, marching in unity to the same goal. The ALP then strongly demanded the release of the previously arrested party leaders and party comrades including Lt. Col. Khaing Paulin and Eighth grade student Maung Soe Min Naing.

ALP is an Arakan armed group which has signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) whereas AA is the one that only has had negotiations but has not entered into the NCA yet.