CNI News

1 December 2023

More and more arrests might be possible by the end of this year, those who are helping in the affairs of Myanmar nationals in Malaysia, told CNI News. 

The number of foreign migrant workers is more than before and the Ricarlibraci permit that has allowed undocumented foreign workers to apply so that they can work legally would expire to be applied in the end of December. 

So, more arrests might be possible more than previous years, Hmwar Michael helping in the affairs of Myanmar nationals in Malaysia, told CNI News.

While stopping and checking vehicles on the road in Malaysia

" In comparison with previous years, the number of migrant workers has increased a lot. More arrests might be possible in the entire country. Malaysian authorities have a plan to make the country free from illegal migrants. Overstayers may be safe a bit because they have to work in the farms or in the rural areas. Authorities can check all the other places." he said.

If undocumented foreigners were arrested, they would be sent to the immigration camps and be punished.

Of those who have served their punishments, the people who could afford air tickets would be sent back to Myanmar by flight.

The population has become more inflated and jobs are scarce this year, making it more difficult to live in Malaysia, said the people helping Myanmar people in Malaysia.

Those who have been detained

" Malaysian government will issue a statement in early 2024. In the meantime, I want the workers to be patient with their jobs and watch the situation. You shouldn't go anywhere if you don't have to." said U Barbu Gyi who is helping Myanmar nationals in Malaysia.

Due to the escape of a Myanmar citizen designated as a suspect in the murder of a Malaysian citizen a few days ago, Malaysian authorities searched the hostels where Myanmar citizens stay. 

The period allowing undocumented workers to apply for Ricarlibraci permit will expire in December. So, Myanmar citizens who have not applied should apply in time, the people helping in the affairs of Myanmar citizens in Malaysia have urged.

CNI News

1 December 2023

Due to the difficulty of the export route to the Chinese border, domestic corn prices have declined, according to corn traders. The price of corn is currently less than 20,000 kyats although the price was more than 20,000 kyats in the past. 

As a result of battles between the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State, it is difficult to export corn produced in Shan State to the Chinese border as well as to the Yangon and Mandalay markets. 

So, corn prices are coming down If the road difficulties continued like that, the price of corn might continue to fall, an official from the Northern Shan State Corn Industrial Association, told CNI News.

" Normally, now is not yet the time when the price of corn falls. The price tends to decline by the end of December. We can't go through Chin Shwe Haw and Muse in northern Shan State due to the battles. It's not convenient to go from Lashio to Mandalay. If you go via southern Shan State the transportation fee is three or four times more. You can't go to the border any more. Moreover, You can't go from Lashio to Mandalay as well. So, the corn price will go on declining." he said.

While seeing corn plants

Currently, corns produced only in Shan State are being sold and corns have been grown in Ayeyarwady Region not very lang ago. 

When the corns produced in Ayeyarwady Region start appearing, since it is a period of duty-free export to Thailand, farmers are worried that the price will decline.

The traders who will store are buying the corn in the domestic market, including other demands. The corns produced in northern Shan State cannot be sold for the time being. When the corns were exported to Thailand duty free, the corns would accumulate more than last year, Ko Min Khaing, a corn farmer from Ayeyarwady Region, told CNI News.

" When one trade route is suspended, we haven't been able to export the corns to Thailand through Myawady. At present, the corns are being mainly sold in the domestic market only. So, the corn price is leading downward only. Although the corn hasn't appeared yet in our region, there will be impact on us. The traders or farmers in Shan State don't sell their corns. Later, the corn from Ayeyarwady Region will appear. When the prices will be good a bit, the corns will be plentiful as well. The corns are being exported to many countries by road or by sea. But when the corns are exported to Thailand, the amount will probably be more than previous years." said Ko Min Khaing.

At present, the world corn price is declining and Corn demand will increase when the corn appears from Ayeyarwady Region and corns are exported to Thailand duty free. 

So, the domestic corn price could increase, according to the Myanmar Corn Industrial Association. Because the export policy relating to corn could be changed, traders are watching the situation.

CNI News
30 November 2023

He believed that the two Shan EAOs - the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) will combine, Sai Ai Pao,, chairman of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party told CNI News.

In accordance with the will of Shan people and monks, they have agreed to ceasefire, said in a statement jointly released by the RCSS and the SSPP on 29th November.

" As a Shan ethnic, I'm proud of them. The agreement will last long. Later, it would be better if the two groups became one. All Shan ethnic people want their combination. Shan nationalities want to see them to be as the same group. I believe it will be like that because people young and old want it. To tell you frankly, all the people of the union also want to be like that. If they become a single group, they will be able to completely protect the interests of the Shan people." said Sai Ai Pao.

troops of the RCSS/SSA

Three representatives from the SSPP and four representatives from RCSS, they met and discussed and formally agreed to a ceasefire on 29th November 2023, said in the statement. The RCSS and the SSPP were often fighting over territorial disputes and due to the battles, locals had to flee to safety.

He hoped that the two organizations will form a combine as one through the ceasefire, Sai Sai, spokesperson of the Shan ethnic civil organizations, told CNI News.

" We can expect a lot. This is the first step. In the current situation, the battles are severely breaking out in our country. In northern Shan State, as you know, the battles are fiercely taking place. At a time like this, first of all, it is necessary to cease fire between our EAOs so that they can protect our people. We have been demanding it since 2021. Our Shan nationalities local and abroad hail the ceasefire. We have expected them to form a combine as one. But there are a lot of things to do, I think." he said.

The RCSS is an NCA signatory and the SSPP is an NCA non-signatory.

CNI News
30 November 2023

About 50,000 tourists entered Shan State during the seven days of Tazaungdaing Festival, an official from the Directorate of Hotel and Tourism, told CNI News.

Tazaungdaing Festival was held in Taunggyi, Shan State from 21st to 27th November and the festival was as crowded as it was before the Covid-19 pandemic. So, it was a good result reportedly.

" 66 percent of the rooms of hotels and guesthouses were full with tourists from 21st to 23rd November. But all the rooms were full with tourists from 24th to 27th November. It was not only in Taunggyi but also in Kalaw. But 50 percent of the rooms in Nyaung Shwe were full with tourists. On 26th and 27th November, the entire field of the festival was as crowded as it was before the Covid-19 pandemic." said an official from the directorate of hotel and tourism.

Taunggyi Tazaungdaing Festival was not held in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The festival was held only from 7th to 9th November.

While overlooking the balloon launches at the 1385 Taunggyi Tazaungdaing Balloon Festival from Awaiyargon Thayagon

The number of tourists who entered the Bagan ancient culture area was low during the Tazaungdaing holiday last year.

Although the number of tourists entered the area was not exactly known, this year's tourist arrivals have increased more than last year, according to an official from the Department of Archaeology and National Museum in Bagan.

Although the number of tourists who arrived in beach areas decreased a bit due to cancellation of hotel bookings,  tourist arrivals increase than last year.

Tourism and hotel operators expected tourist arrivals would increase during the Tazaungdaing Festival this year. However, because there were cancellations of trips due to territorial instabilities, tourist arrivals were fewer than expected, U Naung Naung Han, chairman of the Myanmar Tourism Entrepreneurs Association, told CNI News.

1385 Taunggyi Tazaungdaing Balloon Festival was crowded with visitors

" Tourist arrivals decreased a lot. There were many domestic tours planned. Cars were rented in advance. But almost all the trips were cancelled. Preparations haven't made a lot for the Christmas and New Year. The problems with trip cancellations are still being solved. Some tourism companies lost a lot and so did hotels. Some tourism companies paid advanced money. But the trips were cancelled." he said.

Hotel bookings have not been made for the coming December holiday for the time being reportedly. Tourists can go to Chaungtha, Ngwe Saung, Bagan, Taunggyi, Kalaw and Mandalay only during the December holiday, said U Naung Naung Han.

The number of foreign tourists enters Myanmar through Thailand is 100 to 200 and tourist arrivals from China and India increased a bit reportedly.

CNI News

30 November 2023

Myanmar Tatmadaw may launch an offensive against the Three Brotherhood Alliance aka northern group, Col.Khun Okka, patron of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) told CNI News.

Just as the Chinese army conducted a military exercise near the China-Myanmar border in the past few days, currently Myanmar and China are jointly doing navy military exercises. 

This situation is possible because China and Myanmar want to show that their relations are good. After that, China might carry out to stop the operation that is being waged by the northern armed groups, Col.Khun Okka told CNI News.

While preparing for joint Chinese and Myanmar naval exercises

" What landscape is, it is tantamount to show that Naypyidaw and China have good relations. Moreover, there is a sense that China will put into practice what it is talking about stopping the operations being waged by northern group. It seems that Naypyidaw is going to launch an offensive against the northern group by the end of this month. If the northern groups stop when they should stop, both sides will suffer less." said Col.Khun Okka.

Battles have been fiercely taking place between the Tatmadaw and the joint forces of the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State since the Operation-1027 was launched by the alliance. 

Due to these battles, China-Myanmar border trade has stopped and most locals have been fleeing to safety.

If China did not participate in the operation of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the battles could become more widespread, U Htet Myet, a writer and a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News. 

While seeing northern Three Brotherhood Alliance

" There are two types. One is that China is not behind the Three Brotherhood Alliance. If so, the war waged by the three brotherhood alliance may deepen. It may be stronger. Chin and Rakhine can fight together with these three groups. At the same time, armed groups that are active along the Myanmar-Thailand border can take part in the operations. Even Rakhine armed group (the AA), according to its understanding, it has already joined the attack. That is to say if China is not behind the Three brotherhood Alliance. But if they move this according to China's attitude, if they stop this because China tell them to stop it, the current revolution will actually be just a show." said U Htet Myet.

The Battles between the two sides have been breaking out fiercely since the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched the operation on 27th October. 

The operation that was launched in northern Shan State has been spreading to Kachin State, Sagaing and Mandalay Regions.

CNI News

29 November, 2023

The Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) jointly announced that they have agreed to ceasefire for the protection of Shan people on 29th November while the battles are severely breaking out in Shan State. The two armed groups reached an agreement to stop fighting over territorial ownership dispute.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) have been waging battles under the name of the Operation-1027 in Theinni, Thibaw, Kyaukme, Naunghkio, Namkham, Laukkai, Phaung Sai, Kyukote (Pangsai), Mong Ko, Chin Shwe Haw Townships since 27th October to capture towns and cities. Due to these battles, local people are displacing and some of them have lost their lives. 

Among them, the Shan people are facing the most.

While seeing the ceasefire agreement jointly released by the RCSS and the SSPP

So, the two Shan ethnic armed groups - the RCSS and the SSPP have prepared to protect the Shan people and Shan regions after reaching the agreement. 

The TNLA is trying to get the Palaung State by participating in the Operation-1027 and at the same time, the TNLA is striving to control Namkham Township where Shan people live most, which Shan nationalities don't accept.

CNI News

29 November 2023

Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, leader of the Information Team of the State Administration Council, said on 27th November 2023 that China and Myanmar are strategic partners. 

At present, China is doing military exercises on the border for the peace and stability in the China-Myanmar border area. 

Moreover, three Chinese vessels containing about 700 officers and soldiers arrived in Myanmar on 27th November, said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

" China and Myanmar are, as I said yesterday, strategic partners complying with the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence and there is a strong friendly relationship between the two countries or between the two armies. Today, we could hand over 553 Chinese people including 87 women illegally living in border areas to the Chinese officials." said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

When the Chinese warship arrived in Thilawa Port

The Chinese navy that has already arrived in Myanmar would go on a friendship tour within Myanmar and bilateral friendly sports competitions would be held, said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun. 
Currently, the battles are breaking out between the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA, TNLA and MNDAA).

The public thought that China was encouraging the Three Brotherhood Alliance, Dr.Aung Myo, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

" According to the general public opinion, China is behind the Three Brotherhood Alliance. It's hard to say how much right it is. In my opinion, we haven't seen a clear responce from China. It's hard to say whether the Chinese activity is one side of fire and the other side of water strategy or a real good will. They should response more clearly, I think." said Dr.Aung Myo.

The China-Myanmar border is more than 1,300 miles long and near the border, the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS/SSA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP/SSA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA) have been active.

CNI News

29 November  2023

If the Kachin Independence Army continued to disrupt the peace and stability in Kachin State and Sagaing Region, they would fight against the KIA, which the Shanni Youths Association stated as of 23rd November 2023.

With the intention of not having stability in Kachin State and Sagaing Region, the KIA/PDF joint forces are doing various subversive activities such as burning the villages in their (Shanni) region, unjustly torturing and killing local people, robbery, forced recruitment and rape of women, said in the statement.

So, in responce to the KIA, Shanni Youths Organization carried out warning mines explosions in Myitkyina, Mogaung and Bhamo in Kachin State on 23rd November 2023, Shanni youths stated.

While seeing the statement released by the Shanni Youths Organization

"If the KIA continues to carry out to ensure that there is no peace and stability in Kachin State and Sagaing Region, Shanni youths will attacks the places dominated by the KIA in Kachin State in various ways." said Shanni youths.

Providing the Arakan Army (AA), the All Burma Students Democratice Front (ABSDF), the People's Defense Force (PDF) and the Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-Burma) with weapons and ammunition, the KIA and its allies are fighting against the Shanni Nationalities Army carrying out for security in Banmauk, Kawlin, Pinlebu, Phaung Pyin, Kalay, Tamu, Homalin, Shwe Pyi Aye, Katha, Tigyaing Townships where Shanni nationalities live.

In the same way, the KIA/PDF joint forces are fighting against the Tatmadaw in Mohnyin, Mogaung, Bhamo and Hparkant Townships in Kachin State. 

While seeing the Shanni Nationalities Army

In order to be able to control the entire Sagaing Region, the KIA is waging the Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin, Kant Balu) Operation, Tigyaing Township-centered Operation and Banmauk Township-centered Operation.

If these operations were successful, it would control the entire Sagaing Region. After that, providing the AA, the Chin National Front (CNF) and the PDF with weapons and ammunition, they would be asked to wage operations in Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States, pointed out military experts.

CNI Article
28 November 2023

Now is the time armed forces across the country are trying to overthrow the Tatmadaw, which everyone knows. Among these armed forces, let's study how the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is waging its operations.

Gathering those who are willing to fight against the Tatmadaw in Sagaing Region bordering with Kachin State, the KIA started providing military trainings to them and arming them with weapons. And then, the KIA led the operations, built the supporting channels and connected with other EAOs.

After managing these situations, the KIA has been found to to have laid down three operational strategies and to be implementing them in order to be able to control the entire Sagaing Region.

These operations are (1) Banmauk Township Centered Operation, (2) Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kanbalu) Operation and (3) Tigyaing Township Centered Operation.

As number one, if the KIA was able to control Banmauk Township, it would be able to attack Indaw and Katha and then Pinlebu. If it was able to control, it would be able to easily attack Phaungbyin, Shwe Pyi Aye and Homalin Towns.

In order to be able to attack these towns, according to military strategy, Banmauk Township is important to the KIA so that it will be able to transport weapons and ammunition.

The route that weapons can be transported to Banmauk is the one from Mohnyin Township in Kachin State, Maw Han, Mawlu to Indaw. The next route is the one going from Shwegu Township to Katha Township in Sagaing Region from which goes to Indaw and Banmauk.

No.2 Operation is Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kanbalu) Operation. It is to control Katha firstly. If the KIA has been able to control Katha, it will go on trying to control Kawlin and then Kanbalu to the south of Kawlin. Now that the KIA has controlled Kawlin, its forces have been deployed in Kyunhla near Kanbalu so that it can prevent Kawlin from fighting by the Tatmadaw and at the same time, it is putting pressure on Kanbalu. In order to succeed in this operation, arms and ammunition can be supported from Shwegu, Mohnyin, Indaw routes

Shanni Region

No.3 is the Tigyaing Township Centered Operation. The KIA has started attacking Tigyaing and already controlled rural area of the township. Mainly, arms and ammunition can be sent to Tigyaing through Shwegu in Kachin State and Katha as well. Moreover, arms and ammunition can be sent from Mabein in Mandalay Region.

If the KIA had already controlled the entire Tigyaing Township, it would have controlled the Ayeyarwady waterway and channel that has been connected between Kachin State, Sagaing and Mandalay Regions.

After that, the KIA will continue to put military pressure on Mandalay Region.

The KIA and its allies - the Chin National Front (CNF), the Chin National Defense Force (CNDF), the People Defense Force (PDF), the Kuki National Organization-Burma (KNO Burma) and the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) are attacking Tamu, Khampat and Kalay Townships in Sagaing Region.

The KIA has provided its allies with weapons and ammunition in order to control the entire Sagaing Region.

The KIA is waging these three operations with its allies and if they succeeded in the operations, they would be able to control the entire Sagaing Region.

As soon as the KIA has able to control the entire Sagaing Region, arms delivery route will be open and arms and ammunition can be easily delivered to Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States.

After that, the AA, CNF, CNDF and PDF will go on trying to liberate Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States. So,  liberation battles for Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandalay Regions would emerge from the KIA's control strategy of the entire Saging Region.

However, at present, the KIA is facing with some barriers while implementing the strategy. The main barrier is the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA). Shanni nationaliteis are living in the middle and upper parts of Sagaing Region and the SNA is trying to make their regions peaceful and stable.

Especially, the SNA has been active in Tigyaing, Kawlin, Wuntho, Pinlebu, Katha, Shwe Pyi Aye, Tamu, Kalay, Banmauk, Indaw, Phaungbyin, Homalin, Mawlike and Thanang regions and is trying to restore Shanni State as well.

So, because the SNA is in the military operation area of the KIA, the battles became to take place between the SNA and the KIA/PDF joint forces. Because the SNA is the main barrier that might prevent the KIA's military operations so as not to be successful, the KIA would able to easily implement its operation if it could persuade the SNA.

If the KIA can't organize the SNA, it will find it difficult. So, it is important to the KIA to organize or fight to win the SNA. In the same way, if the Tatmadaw can organize the SNA, it can go one step further so that the KIA can't control Sagaing Region.

The KIA won't have enough finance for the arms and ammunition in order to wage operations that will control the entire Sagaing Region and to go on fighting in Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandaly Regions. If that's so, which force is behind the KIA?

SNA Army

Surely China will be behind the KIA because the KIA has helped build Meitei and Naga armed groups and is putting pressure on India to satisfy China. Now it will be able to put more pressure on India.

Moreover, if the KIA was able to liberate Rakhine and Chin States with the help of China, armed groups in Chin and Rakhine State might be able to disturb the India's Kaladan River Project and border region stability.

The situations presented above are about how important Sagaing Region is for armed forces that want to overthrow the Tatmadaw and how important the region is for the KIA, China and the Tatmadaw.

However, we all have to watch what will happen next.