CNI Article

14 May 2024

On April 29, 2024, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post wrote: “Chinese consumers are increasing their appetite for gold, seeking to protect their assets amid a volatile stock market, a depreciating yuan and, property doldrums.”

China is the world’s largest gold producer. But the demand has far outstripped supply leading to imports. Clearly, the common Chinese are losing faith in their economy. And, that takes us to question what’s wrong with China. The answer may be found in the dramatic meltdown of Hong Kong’s status as a global financial and commercial hub. 

The former British colony was handed over to China in 1997. Under British rule, the islanders enjoyed a high degree of civil liberties which were crucial for its prosperity. During its inclusion with China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) promised to ensure the political freedom of the islanders for fifty years under a framework known as “one country, two systems.”  Not to mention that mainland China does not enjoy such freedoms. 

The situation started changing dramatically after President Xi Jinping became general secretary of CCP in 2012 and President of the country in 2013. A severe clampdown on free speech was ordered in Hong Kong. Initially, media and educational institutes went under heavy censorship. Then Beijing went for changing the electoral system inviting huge protests. The island was rocked by a wave of sit-in demonstrations, and marches beginning September 2014. Students were at the forefront of the peaceful “Occupy movement” that finally ended in December in the face of the ruthless use of force by Beijing. 

Since then, Hong Kong has been living under the iron rule of China. Many newspapers were closed. Editors landed up in jail or were silenced. In 2020, Beijing imposed a draconian national security law in Hong Kong that gave authorities sweeping powers to arrest pro-democracy activists, advocates, media persons, social influencers etc. Most critically, the new law curbed the voting rights of the islanders. The press freedom was reduced to near zero. Before the Xi era, the South China Morning Post was one of the most respected dailies in Asia. Today, it merely toes the line set by CCP. 

But that did not stop Beijing from increasing the stranglehold. In March this year, the CCP brought more lethal provisions over and above the National Security Act to virtually reduce Hong Kong into an open jail. The new act, known as Article 23, empowers Beijing to crack down on all forms of dissent - on the grounds of treason, espionage, sedition and external interference in Hong Kong’s internal affairs - with sentences ranging up to life imprisonment. 

It is anybody’s guess how a totalitarian state can use draconian legal provisions. China loved Hong Kong for its money. But it hated the freedom the islanders enjoyed. Beijing will not stop until it crushes the liberal spirit of the islanders. On the flip side, the oppression of civil liberties played a significant role in China’s recent economic decline. At a time when emerging markets in Asia are booming, the Chinese share market is struggling. China’s CSI300 index is ruling 31% lower than the February 2021 high. On the contrary, India’s NIFTY50 index is at a historic high. 

World history suggests some countries made progress under dictatorship, monarchy or one-party rule when they were abysmally poor. It is no justification for autocratic rules nor did all dictators make their country richer.  China was abysmally poor under Mao Zedong’s authoritarian rule. However, Deng Xiaoping used the same single-party rule to pursue Barbie doll economics to alleviate poverty and catapult the country towards a growth path. From barely $347 in 1990, the per-capita income of the Chinese has reached nearly $13000, above the world average. 

And, that puts them face to face with another piece of lesson from history. As people get richer, they demand personal and political freedom. This is why, the democratic West adopted more democratic means of governance once they crossed a per-capita of $2500 in the last century. The relationship between growth and personal liberty at a higher per-capita level is non-negotiable. That is why Deng proposed a political reform as a follow-up action to economic reforms. Deng was Chairman of the Central Advisory Commission till 1987. He died in 1997. CCP allowed discussion on political reforms for another decade and, then Xi turned the wheel back. China started pursuing Mao’s total control doctrine.  

This is the source of China’s recent instability. Look at Hong Kong. In 2020, the US imposed sanctions on the top leadership of the city, for violating the freedom of expression of the islanders. After China brought in Article 23 in March 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a plan to impose “new visa restrictions on multiple Hong Kong officials for the intensifying crackdown on rights and freedoms.”  

The sanction is a smaller part of the problem. The bigger issue is: Can a global financial hub operate under such a restrictive environment? Can you expect investment bankers at Wall Street in New York to keep silent on the American government and its policies? The answer is an emphatic ‘NO.’ They study government policies and make decisions on keeping investments in America or taking them to any other destination. A totalitarian regime that suppresses dissent can put bans on taking investments out or raising money from abroad. Didn’t Beijing force Jack Ma’s Ant Group to cancel its $37 billion IPO in 2020? 

The realisation has dawned on the global corporate and financial circle. In December 2023, Moody's downgraded the outlook on both China and Hong Kong's credit ratings from stable to negative. Before that, in October 2023, The Wall Street Journal wrote: “International companies began trickling out of Hong Kong a few years back, uneasy about the financial hub’s tightening ties to mainland China. That first smattering of departures is now turning into a broad retreat involving banks, investment firms and technology companies. The number of U.S. companies operating in the city has fallen for four years in a row, by Hong Kong’s count, hitting 1,258 in June 2022, the fewest since 2004.” Chinese companies now outnumber the foreign entities in Hong Kong. 

CNI News

14 May 2024

The No-3 Thanlyin Bridge that is being constructed over the river to connect Thaketa Township with Thanlyin Township is about to be completed. So, the price of real estate in Thanlyin Township is getting higher than before, according to real estate agents. Real estate prices have risen by about one third of what they used to be, Ma Jue Jue, a real estate agent, told CNI News.

" There are people who buy real estate. The prices are also going up by about one third of what they used to be. The prices of real estate in Thanlyin are cheaper than other places. If you have about 300 lakh kyats, you can buy a land lot whose area is 1,200 or 2,400 square feet. The bridge (No.3 Thanlyin Bridge) will be open in July. It's likely that the prices are going up. But the prices are cheaper than in Dagon Myothit (North)." she said.

Although real estate agents used to buy land lots, there are more people coming to buy for living now and although a land lot (20'x60') could be bought at around 900 lakh kyats in the past, now it must be paid 1,300 lakh kyats.

While eeing the Thanlyin Bridge

Although real estate transactions tend to be low during the rainy season, because the land lots to be sold are very few, the prices could not be lower, Ma Htet Mon, a real estate agent, told CNI News.

" We had to sell land lots or real estate in the last rainy season. The transaction tends to lower a bit in the rainy season. But the prices would be changed. There are not many real estate and land lots which are going to be sold. These days, the people are buying and saving land lots and real estate." she said.

Although a lot of government grant land lots were bought before in Thanlyin Township in the past, buying other kinds of land has become higher now and there are hardly any land lots to be sold in some wards, said real estate agents.

While seeing the entrance sign of Thanlyin City

If the construction of No-3 Thanlyin Bridge was finished, traffic jams currently taking place on the No-1 Thanlyin Bridge would be resolved. Moreover, you could reach downtown Yangon in such a short time from Thanlyin.

Besides, as the Thilwa Special Economic Zone is located in Thanlyin Township, Thanlyin probably will be the best town to do business. On top of that, prices of real estate of neighboring townships such as Kyauktan, Thongwa and Kayan could go up, according to people.

CNI News

14 May 2024

The arrest of Naga young people by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) destroyed their future sort of, said Naga youths. The KIA was arresting Naga youths on the Shin Bwe Yang and Tanai routes and it was difficult to travel, a Naga youth told CNI News.

"If you look at many KIA soldiers who were sent to the front lines, their faces are Naga, but their names are Kachin ones. There were many Naga youths in Tanai, Shin Bwe Yang, Nanyun, Pansaung and Donhee. Where have they been now? Why is the KIA arresting so many Naga youths. We are finding it so difficult. Naga youths want to go to Myitkyina for their education, but they don't dare. We are facing various crises including job." he said.

While seeing the KIA force

The KIA arrested Naga youths to recruit in some villages, Shin Bwe Yang Township in the second week of April after which many Naga youths had to run away. However, he hadn't heard that the KIA was arresting Naga youths to recruit and he had no comment, Colonel Nawbu, information officer of the KIA told CNI News.

" I haven't heard of that. They might take place at the front line. May be I didn't heard. I don't mean it's not right. I have no comment about it." he said. It was reported that the KIA would arrest 3,000 people and he was not sure Naga youths or Kachin and other clans would be arrest, said a Naga youth.

While seeing some youths attending the KIA's military training

" After they (the KIA) have recruited Naga youths, are the Naga youths asked to dominate the Naga region or is the KIA to rule Nanyun and Pansaung unjustly? Because there was no specific territorial demarcation between the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang and the KIA, Kachin State is Naga region and vice versa. They are not clear. They didn't explain clearly why the arrests are being conducted. There aren't any reporters in the, Naga region. So, I wonder they are doing what they want to." he said.

500 to 700 Naga youths were arrested in 2023 and some of them were released. The KIA is arresting the youths to recruit in Shin Bwe Yang, Nanyun, Pansaung, Lahe, Donhee as well as in Nan Si Pon region, Khamti Township, Sagaing Region reportedly.

CNI News
11 May 2024

When getting tokens for Unique Identification Number smart card, the price for fast availability was around 100,000 kyats, residents of Myawaddy told CNI News.

Although the people who held border pass were allowed to cross the border in the past, but now those who have UID smart cards (national registration smart card) would be allowed to cross the border starting 1st May, 2024.

So, there have been a sharp increase in the number of the people who tried to get tokens to make UIDs and the price that has to be paid to get tokens quickly rose to around 100,000 kyats.

That's why, the issuance of tokens has been suspended starting from 8th May, 2024, an official from a social assistance association in Myawaddy, told CNI News.

While seeing those who came to the immigration office in Myawaddy to apply for UID cards

"The matter of money taken by township immigration officials and brokers was problematic. The issuance of tokens has been suspended for the time being. I wonder how they will restart by which system. The population of Myawaddy residents is just a few. There are more workers who go to the Thai side with a seven day residence permit. The problem is that those who want to get UIDs fast have to pay money. The brokers who have links with immigration officials designated the price for those who get UIDs fast. In the beginning, a card was paid 30,000 to 50,000 kyats. Now the price has been 80,000 to 100,000 kyats." he said.

The issuance of tokens has been suspended starting from 8th May, 2024 and new applications will be accepted starting from 13th May, 2024 reportedly.

The Immigration Office in Myawaddy is providing service to make 300 people get the UID smart carts reportedly. If the smart cards were issued not only in the immigration department but also at the border gates, it would be easier and faster, pointed out people.

While seeing those who came to the immigration office in Myawaddy to apply for UID cards

A border pass will be issued to a person who has had a UID and designating like that has opened a way that applicants have to pay a lot of money, Ko Naing Naing Aung, director of the Arakan Workers Organization, told CNI News.

“It's just a way to earn an income. A citizen registration card has been issued to a citizen. As soon as you show the card, you can freely travel to Thailand that has been discussed already by the two governments to be able to do so. After giving a name to this issue, they are looking for money. When the authorities lay down a policy, they think about getting benefit from the public but they don't think about how to provide service to the public." he said.

Those who apply for UID smart cards must have household census and citizen registration cards and after biodata collection such as eye scanning and fingerprinting is done, they can get their UID smart cards.

Although the government has directed to provide service free of charge for UID smart cards, brokers are working to get UID smart cards on behalf of applicants who have to give a lot of money at the bottom.

CNI News
11 May 2024

This year Myanmar mango export to China was just one third of last year due to instabilities along the way, said mango traders.

As time delays occur due to battles breaking out along the route going to the border trade gate, the quality of mangoes might decline and so as not to decline like that, although the two governments discussed to make the mangoes get the green line status as an important commodity, it didn't work reportedly. So, the mango export to China has declined, Ko Thitsar, a mango trader, told CNI News.

" The current authorities and the bilateral organizations don't understand the green line. So, they can't make the green line system. We can only tell the drivers to take care of their driving and so as to delay. The number of times delivered by car becomes less. If 100 trucks went with mangoes in the past, now would be 30." he said.

When the mangoes were exported to China through Muse and Kyin San Kyawt border trade in the past, although it took only two days, those gates have been closed now because of battles.

So, the mangoes are being exported to China through the Myla border trade and it takes about seven days and three to ten trucks of mangoes can be exported each day reportedly.

So, the mango market was on the brink of collapse and hardly any mango growers exported mangoes any more. Only companies and brokers' sales centers exported, U San Win, a mango trader, told CNI News.

" At present, there are hardly any mango growers who exported mangoes. Companies and brokers' sales centers inform the buyers of the prices in advance and export as able as they can get. There have been almost no auction systems like in the past. To sustain the system like this, it will be likely to export a lot. Now mangoes are so plentiful within the country. The market is on the brink of collapse." he said.

Although Japan, Singapore and other countries offered to buy Myanmar mangoes this year, they cannot be exported because of their quality weak points reportedly.

CNI News
11 May 2024

The India-based Zomi Revolutionary Organization/Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRO/ZRA) and the Zomi Political Cooperation Committee (ZPCC)/ZRA Eastern Command that enter Chin State are gathering Zomi clans in Myanmar, India and Bangladesh and trying to build Zomi country, the Chin National Front (CNF) accused and stated on 9th May, 2024.

The ZRO/ZRA that was formed in 1993 is a Zomi clan armed group that revolutionizes against the Indian government and according to the agreement reached between the Indian government and the ZRO/ZRA in 2005, had stood as a Border Guarder Force and based in Manipur State, the CNF stated.

After that, the ZRO/ZRA which went against the Indian Government entered Chin State, Myanmar under the name of the ZPCC/ZRA (Eastern Command) in 2013 and the political objective of the ZRO/ZRA which has based in Manipur State, India was to dominate other clans in Manipur State, the CNF accused.

"The political objective of the ZPCC/ZRA (Eastern Command) that is active in Chinland ( Chin State) is to gather Tedim, Tonzang Townships in Chinland as well as Kalay and Kabaw regions in Sagaing Region and to build Zomi State. The ultimate political goal of the ZRO/ZRA and the ZPCC/ZRA (Eastern Command) is to gather Zomi clans in Myanmar, India and Bangladesh to build Zomi country." the CNF accused.

While seeing the statement released by the CNF

The ZRO/ZRA and ZPCC/ZRA pay the tax to the regionally based Myanmar Tatmadaw has owned many acres of poppy plantation in the forest belt in which there are Phoisat, Suang hoih, Seimei and Mualpi Villages.

Local people have been allowed to grow poppy and they have to pay tax. They collect tax at the border checkpoints and the tender the Myanmar Tatmadaw is carrying out in Tedim and Tonzang Townships, the CNF stated.

The reason why the CNF was fighting against the ZRA was because the CNF wanted to control the border trade route and to collect tax, said a person close to the CNF.

" At present, the CNF is trying to dominate Chin State. The reason why the CNF is fighting against the ZRA is because the CNF wants to control the trade route. The CNF is collecting tax at 2 percent on commodity in Chin State. The people from Hakha and Thantlan might like the CNF. But other Chin people don't like the CNF. To tell you frankly, the people from the border area prefer the military council. In any case, when the military council had controlled the border, they were able to make a living. When the CNF attacked the border gate and India has closed the gate, it's difficult for them to make a living." he said.

While seeing the CNF force

The battles are currently breaking out in Tedim Township and near the border area. The six Chin ethnic armed groups have warned the CNF not to conduct any military movements in Tedim and Tonzang Townships.

According to the CNF, the ZRA and the Infantry Battalion-268 of the Tatmadaw met and discussed and the following points were agreed- (1) the State Administration Council must lead to draft the Zogam Charter; (2) the SAC must lead in order to build Zomi State;(3) the ZRA must be recognized as the Border Guard Force; (4) the ZPCC/ZRA must be allowed to move in Tedim and Tonzang; (5) the ZPCC/ZRA must completely get rid of the PDF and the CDF, and must fight against the armed organizations in Kalay, Kabaw and Tamu to expell; (6) the ZPCC/ZRA must arrest those who have joined the CDM; (7) the ZPCC/ZRA must plot various stories and hurt the images of the CNF, the CDF and PDF and must fight against them, regarding as enemy.

However, the ZRA explained that it didn't cooperate with the Myanmar Tatmadaw and any agreements were not reached between the two sides.

CNI News

10 May 2024

A multi-party democratic general election would be mandatorily held, said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, leader of the Information Team of the State Administration Council, on the night of 8th May 2024.

He said the above while he released the news about the meeting of Cambodian president of the senate Hun Sen and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC.

" We have guaranteed the people to build a democracy and federalism-based union. We will mandatorily hold a multi-party democratic general election. We are making preparations for that. And we have laid down five point road map. We'll carry out mandatorily in accordance with the road map." said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

To hold a general election is included in the road map.

While the UEC was meeting with political parties

However, the SAC has not clearly said when the election will be held. Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing said that census-taking would be conducted all over the country in 2024 after which the election would be held. And then, the power would be handed over to the winning party.

It was necessary to end or reduce armed conflicts taking place within Myanmar and to have stability and peace so that the election could be held. The election could be  held in 2025, reviewed political parties.

Having said that the NLD government was trying to form a government without resolving the ballot disputes, the Tatmadaw overthrew the NLD government and took power.

After that, the Tatmadaw formed a caretaker government called the State Administration Council and is making preparation to hold the election again.

CNI News

10 May 2024

Instead of using the Kalay-Tamu-Kalaywa order trade, the main border trade route of the Myanmar-India border trade, another route is being used, according to Tamu traders.

Not only had India closed the border trade, the territory along the Kalay-Tamu road was unstable. So, jungle routes and waterways were being used, traders said.

Even if India opened the border trade gate when the route on the Myanmar side was not safe, jungle route only would be used, Ko Min Ko, a trader from Tamu, told CNI News.

" If the main road has been closed due to many problems, we have to use jungle route to carry goods by motorcycle. There is a waterway between Kalay and Kalewa. Khampat Village is on the way of the waterway, from which goods are carried to Kalay by car. Some traders carry their goods to Kalewa. If the routes between Monywa and Kalay were closed, goods are carried from Kalewa to Monywa by waterway. Even if India opens the border trade gate when there have been no stabilities' on the Myanmar side, Locals have to make a living at their own convenience." he said.

While seeing Tamu PDF

There are three rotes in the Myanmar-India border trade and they are Tamu-Kalewa-Taze- Ye U - Monywa (Mahamyaing Route), Mandalay-Tamu-Kalewa-Monywa (Yargyi Route) and Mandalay-Tamu-Kalay-Gangaw-Pale-Monywa-Mandalay and they were used to trade in the past. However, these routes are not used due to territorial instabilities at present.

Because of the communal riots that took place in Manipur State, India has closed the border trade and only after the riots could be resolved, the border trade would be reopened, U Hla Maung, from the border traders association (Tamu-Kaly-Kalewa).

" India is more important for the border trade. Ethnic problem between Kuki and Meitei has been taking place for long in Manipur State, India. It's not safe in their territory. The problem is complex in their country. Unless the problem cannot be resolved, the border trade cannot be officially reopened." he said.

While seeing Tamu PDF

If the Tamu-Moreh border trade gate, one of the Myanmar-India border trade gates, was reopened, Tamu locals could enjoy job opportunities. Moreover, higher prices and
shortage of goods could be reduced.

At present, India has closed the Tamu-Moreh border trade, the Tamu-Kalay-Kalewa border trade, the Paletwa-Mizoram border trade and the Pansaung border trade. So, the Myanmar-India border trade is being conducted illegally reportedly.

CNI News

10 May 2024

There are reviews and discussions among political circles in relation to whether a political dialogue could emerge in 2024. 

Former Cambodian PM Hun Sen and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council online on 7th May, 2024 and Hun Sen requested Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing to allow him to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

In the same way, former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra met with delegates from the RCSS, the KNU, the KNO, the KNPP and the NUG and discussed to help solve the Myanmar political crisis.

Because of attempts from neighboring countries and international for the Myanmar issue, a political dialogue could emerge to solve the Myanmar political crisis, U Tun Aung Kyaw, member of the policy steering committee from the Arakan National Party (ANP) told CNI News.

While seeing General Saw Mutu Say Phoe and the Chinese Special Envoy

" ASEAN members and neighboring countries are particularly worried about Myanmar. Battles are so severely breaking out. The situation in which Myanmar government was called Yangon Government in 1948-49 or so has come again, I think. They seem to be worried that their economies might be damaged. So, they are making efforts to make Myanmar peaceful." He said.

Former Cambodian PM and the Thai officials attempt to be able to hold a political dialogue in general. 

No matter how severe battles are breaking out, discussions must be conducted at the political roundtable after all to end these conflicts. So, a dialogue path might emerge.

While seeing senior Tatmadaw officers

With the political landscapes that emerged on 1st February, 2021, armed conflicts have been widely taking place and it cannot be solved up to now.

He hoped that the steps forwards could be taken to widen the political dialogue frame in 2024, Saw Kyaw Kyunt, spokesperson of the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News.

" A news political dialogue is really needed to be held. We have never seen our country whose war frame is wider than the political frame. While we are facing various difficulties, we'd like to hope that steps forwards can be taken this year." he said.

Because of domestic armed conflicts, all sectors including politics, peace, economy, education, health and so in Myanmar are deteriorating. some EAOs, some political parties, ASEAN and international organizations are trying in order to solve the crises.