CNI Article

8 February 2024

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), says every so often that the SAC will hold the election and hand over the State power to the winning party. 

However, the SAC doesn't say clearly that the election they will hold is whether a general election or by-elections.

In the same way, even though the SAC overthrew the NLD government, saying that the NLD was trying to get the State power without solving the vote list dispute, it hasn't announced decidedly whether the results of the 2020 general election have been void or not.

So, is a new election that Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing means is either a general election or bi-elections or what kind of election? It is food for thought or questionable.

After the NLD government was overthrown on February 1, 2021 by the Tatmadaw, security operations were being carried out

The SAC hasn't revealed for the time being when the election will be held. However, it's said that it will conduct the national census-taking in 2024 after which the election will be held. So, the election that will be sponsored by the SAC might be held in 2025 or 2026. In any case, the SAC will look for a political exit.

On the other hand, armed conflicts are severely taking place in many parts of the country and there has been an increase in the territories that the SAC lost control of. 

A general election was held in 2010, and by-elections, in 2012 and a general election, in 2015 and by-elections, in 2017 and a general election, in 2020. In any case, the number of constituencies that will take part in the election to be held under the SAC government probably will be less.

In a situation like this, there's something to be considered whether the SAC will hold a general election or by-elections. If a general election was held, the results of the 2020 general election would be void automatically, that we could deem.

Otherwise, if by-elections were held, the SAC would temporarily suspend the results of the 2020 general election without abolishing them. And then, the Hluttaw that contains the representatives who win in the by-elections will be held and an elected political party government might be formed.

While the UEC was explaining the voting system to political parties

There might be some disputable issues in a situation like that. The disputable issues might include whether the public will accept it or not and if the results of the 2020 general election were not cancelled, the NLD MPs would be recognized.

However, the law relating to political parties registration that was enacted on 26th January 2023 by the SAC and the law that amends the law relating to political parties registration that was imposed on 30th January 2024 by the SAC should be studied and compared.  

According to the section-2 (g) of the law relating to political parties registration, the by-election is the election that is occasionally held by the Union Election Commission for the vacant constituencies because during a normal Hluttaw tenure, the election has been put off in a constituency or an MP passes away or an MP has been removed from its position in accordance with the law.

According to the section-2(g) of the law that amends the political parties registration law, the by-election is the election occasionally held by the UEC for the vacant constituencies when a member of the Hluttaw resigns or passes away or is removed from the membership of the Hluttaw in accordance with the law. As an amendment, a point saying 'because the election is put off during a tenure of the Hluttaw' is omitted.

While seeing the chairman of the NLD party Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

If that is the case, the SAC will no longer hold the next election as a general election but will hold the election as by-elections only and winners of the by-elections will be added to the elected representatives from the 2020 general election. 

After that, the Hluttaw will be held with more than half of all the members of the Hluttaw. In this way, the SAC will overcome the crisis, won't they? If that kind of political landscape was created, the requested fact that the results of the 2020 must be internationally recognized would have already accepted.

In the same way, political parties that have won in the 2020 general election and that don't want to collaborate with the Tatmadaw must attend the Hluttaw and will have to continue to participate in politics.

As the NLD has won in the 2020 general election, the fact that it will form a government might be confused because most of the NLD MPs have chosen the armed path and taken part in the NUG. So, they might be removed for the membership of the Hluttaw according to the law.

Some of the NLD MPs passed away and others might resign from the membership. So, candidates with the second highest number of votes in the constituencies where the NLD candidates have won might be declared as winners by the UEC.

While announcing the results of the election

That's why the SAC probably will hold by-elections rather than a general election. After that, an elected government and the Hluttaw will arise and some of the opposition elements probably will arrive in the Hluttaw. If that happens, the situation that a single person has handled three powers-legislative power, administrative power and judicial power-can be overcome and three powers can be distributed.

After three powers can be distributed, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will make a choice whether he will go on staying in the Tatmadaw or take government responsibility.

At any rate, the Hluttaw, the government and the Tatmadaw need to be separate institutions. If a single person has handled three powers, the country is more likely to decline than it is likely to improve.

So, we'll keep a close watch the law that amends the political parties registration law is whether a political strategy of the SAC or an exit for the country and the public.

CNI News

7 February 2024

Domestic rice prices have gradually risen during the past few days. The price of one pyi (2.55718 L) of rice is rising from 4 to 600 kyats, according to the rice market.

The rice prices have risen because the rice exporters are buying rice at high prices, an official from the Myanmar Rice & Paddy Traders Association, told CNI News.

" Exporters need rice to export. There's a regular consumption within the country. When the prices are so high, those who have stored rice for long will sell it. At present, the rice from warehouses has come out a little. The the rice prices went up has made the export earnings increase. Because the exporters make a profit, they raise the prices and buy rice. It depends on the government's policy as well. Domestic consumption is regular. The export policy may change. The rice prices are low or high depending on the financial change." he said.

Although the price of Pawsanhmway, a kind of fine rice, was 120,000 kyats per bag (24 pyis) in the past, but now its price has been 125,000 kyats. The price of Aemahta, a kind of low quality, has risen from 80,000 to 84,000 kyats per bag within this month.

For the time being, there has been an increase in buying rice paddy and its price has risen to 80,000 kyats for 100 bags. So, domestic rice prices also have gone up, said farmers. 

While seeing a rice shop

However, when the summer rice appears abundantly, the rice prices would be stable again, U Thein Aung, chairman of the Farmers Development Association, told CNI News.

" The price of 100 baskets of rice paddy has risen from 50,000 until 80,000 kyats. So, the price of one pyi of rice also will go up a bit. The prices of rice will go up a little at a time like this. And the summer rice paddy hasn't appeared. The rice prices will rise depending on the current price of rice paddy and exchange rate. But the prices won't go up exponentially, I think." he said.

Rice is sufficient for the domestic consumption because farmers in Ayeyarwady Region have expanded their cultivation of rain, winter and summer rice paddy with higher prices, reportedly.

However, the yield of rice paddy has been low in Sagaing Region, Rakhine State and Mon State because some townships of these regions are not stable. 

So, the exporting amount of rice has been reduced this year, according to the Myanmar Rice and Paddy Traders Association.

CNI News

7 February 2024

Col.Win Ram from the National Socialist Council of Nagaland Khaplang Yung Aung (NSCN-K/YA) passed away in Myitkyina, Kachin State on 5th February 2024, the NSCN-K/YA stated. 

Col.Win Ram passed away while he was receiving medical treatment in Myitkyina.

Colonel Win Ram was deputy secretary of the NSCN-K/YA and he served for 12 years. So, the NSCN-K/YA was deeply saddened for Col.Win Ram passed away. He served his duty with full courage until his last breath-out for the Naga people, the NSCN-K/Ya stated.

While seeing the condolence statement by NSCN-K/YA on the death of Col. Win Ram

The National Socialist Council of Nagaland was built in 1980. 

There were disagreements among the leaders - Isak, Muivah and Khaplang after which in 1989, the organization was divided into two groups and the one is the NSCN-Khaplang or the NSCN-K and the other, the NSCN-Isak-Muivah or the NSCN-IM. The NSCN-K is based in Burma and NSCN-IM, in India.

Khaplang, chairman of the NSCN-K passed away in 2017 and U Khango Konyak, vice chairman, became the chairman in 2018. However, he was soon removed from power on 17th August that year and U Yung Aung was appointed as the chairman.

While seeing Ang Mai, leader of the NSCN-K/AM

U Yung Aung fired Deputy Chief of Staff Niki Sumi, Minister Star Sam, and Chief of Staff Nyam Lang on 29th July 2020. After that, Niki Sumi built a breakaway faction called the NSCN-K/NK and it agreed to peace with the Indian government on 8th September 2021.  

In the same way, the NSCN-K/YA dismissed Home Minister Ang Mai in 2023 and he built the KSCN-K/AM faction.

Moreover, U Aung Sai and U Jimmy who were dismissed from the NSCN-K built the East Naga Defense Army (ENDA/ENNO).

CNI News

6 February 2024

Politics and military experts are reviewing and discussing about how the revolutionary forces can put pressure on the State Administration Council during this year. 

Some EAOs and revolutionary joint forces were able to capture some military camps and towns from the end of 2023 and until now.

Revolutionary forces probably could capture medium and small towns and a slogan saying that all the columns would march to Naypyidaw had been issued, U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar politics commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

" At this level, revolutionary forces have captured medium and small towns. Within this year, they will launch operations to capture medium and large towns, I think. If medium towns could be captured easily and the disintegration of the military council army is faster than this, they can capture cities. They have issued a slogan saying all the columns will march to Naypyidaw. They will do as they have said." he said.

Although 2023 was proclaimed as the decisive year of the Spring Revolution, It turned out that neither side was able to outright win. However, after the Three Brotherhood Alliance had launched the Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023, revolutionary forces were able to seize control of 39 towns, revolutionary forces have stated.

The general public was facing high commodity prices due to monetary inflation. Moreover, due to roadblocks and financial charges by the revolutionary forces, the people were facing various kinds of crises, U Li Paw Reh, chairman of the Lisu National Development Party (Dulei Party), told CNI News.

While seeing the Chin force

"They (revolutionary forces) can't be so much successful because, to tell you frankly, financial support is important. Even now, the people have complained a lot. The people who support them have complained as well. Frankly speaking, commodity prices have risen due to monetary inflation and the people have to pay the tax kind of. So, the people have complained. If this keeps up, the people will complain more. The kind of work without the public participation won't be successful, I think." he said.

Having said that the NLD was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, the Tatmadaw overthrew the NLD government on 1st February 2021 and has taken power after announcing the state of emergency.

After that, the battles have been breaking out between the Tatmadaw and revolutionary joint forces including some EAOs across the country and there have been crises in all sectors including politics, economy, health and education in Myanmar.

CNI News

6 February 2024

Undocumented foreigners including Myanmar citizens, overstayers and so on would not be prosecuted and they all would be allowed to go home, said the Malaysian Minister for Home Affairs at the news conference held on 31st January 2023. 

This plan would be started on 1st March at the decision of the cabinet, said the minister.

Although undocumented foreigners would not be prosecuted, they would face a fine, U Barbu Gyi who is helping in the affairs of Myanmar nationals in Malaysia, told CNI News.

" The plan that have allowed any undocumented foreigners to go home has been suspended for over one year. According to their plan, an undocumented Myanmar citizen has to go to the Malaysian immigration department after getting a certificate of endorsement that he or she is a Myanmar citizen from the Myanmar Embassy. And then, he must pay a fine at the immigration office after which he can go home. No more inspection will be needed. But they haven't announced whether undocumented foreigners will have to take appointments or not." he said.

While the Malaysian Minister for Home Affairs was answering media to their questions

An undocumented foreigner who entered Malaysia illegally without a passport must pay 500 ringgits as a fine. And an overstayer with a passport expired also must pay 500 ringgits as a fine as well as 300 ringgits have been fined for the violations of the rules reportedly.

It was likely that Malaysian Government was trying to reduce a lot of undocumented foreigners who has stranded in Malaysia, said Myanmar people in Malaysia.

Among the undocumented Myanmar citizens in Malaysia, there were a lot of Myanmar citizens who were waiting to go home with CIs and some of undocumented Myanmar people wanted to wait for the time when permits would be issued, U Nyi Nyi Lwin, director general of the Center for Arakan Refugees, told CNI News.

" There are two kinds. Arrests are rampant. In a situation an undocumented foreigner can't stay any longer, he wants to go home with a CI. But some undocumented foreigners want to go on staying if permits could be applied. But Myanmar Embassy takes very long to issue passports. Just a few Myanmar people could apply for passports all over the last year because it takes you six months or one year to get a passport from Myanmar Embassy. Other embassies issue passports within 24 hours or 36 hours or 48 hours. So, other foreigners can take advantage of the opportunity. On the other hand, Myanmar people had to lose the opportunity." he said.

Undocumented foreigners who have been arrested

Due to instability in Myanmar and the devaluation of Myanmar Kyat at present, it's more convenient to earn money by doing random jobs in Malaysia instead of going home. So, some undocumented Myanmar people don't want to go home reportedly.

Under the normal procedure in Malaysia, undocumented foreigners and overstayers could go home only after serving the sentence. However, it was better that they could go home without serving the sentence, said Myanmar people in Malaysia.

Because arrests are being conducted everyday in Malaysia, if Myanmar people who find it difficult to go on staying want to go home, they should go home under the CI program that will be started on 1st March 2024, they suggested.

CNI News

6 February 2024

Nitric acid, the main raw material in refining gold, has been in short supply in market and its price is skyrocketing, according to gold entrepreneurs.

Although the price of the acid was about 200,000 kyats for five gallons in the past, but now the price has been about 1,000,000 kyats reportedly.

Because the price of nitric acid has risen, the cost for refining gold has gone up, U Ohn Myaing, secretary of the Myanmar Gold Entrepreneurs Association, told CNI News.

" I heard that the acid has been scarce. The price has been around 10 lakh kyats for five gallons. The price was about two lakh kyats in the past. And the cost for refining gold has gone up exponentially as well. Now the charge for refining gold has been 6,500 kyats per tical. The charge was only 3,500 to 4,000 kyats in the past. In the same way, the price of gold also has gone up from 3,000 to 5,000 kyats per tical." he said.

While seeing gold ware

Due to the shortage of nitric acid, the productivity of gold finished product has declined, said gold entrepreneurs.

The government imports the nitric acid and gold entrepreneurs have to buy it from the companies concerned. At present, importing the nitric acid has been delayed due to difficult border trade routes reportedly. 

Nitric acid is mainly imported from China. The productivity of gold has been slow due to the necessity of the acid. So, later the gold shops won't be able to sell the gold as much as the customers want, said the gold market analysts.

However, gold price speculators might find a way to go on doing their business, Ko Nay Khant, a gold market analyst, told CNI News.

While gold is being melted

" The acid has been scarce really. The border trade routes have been interrupted. The acid is not like other products. You can't import it on your own. The government import it. We have to buy it from the government kind of. But the countries like Malaysia have allowed the companies whatever they want to import. If the acid was not available easily, the gold shops won't able to sell gold as much as the customers want. If so, the gold shops will have to re-buy the gold from the customers. If they did so, the gold price might decline but for not very long. And then, they will sell it again. An opportunity has arisen to speculate gold price." he said.

As now is the open season, the influx of raw gold from gold mines has increased and because it is the season when finished gold products are manufactured, the demand of the acid will be high. 

However, due to the shortage of the nitric acid in the market, the productivity of finished gold products has declined and the price of gold might be volatile, which gold traders and gold market analysts are worried about.

CNI News

6 February 2024

There were secessions from the Karen National Union (KNU) during the revolution and it caused a big challenge for the KNU, said Pado Saw Hla Tun, secretary-2 of the KNU. 

He said that there were secessions from the KNU, being different from other revolutionary groups while he was talking about the experience of going through the revolution on 75th Anniversary Celebration of Karen Revolutionary Day.

" During the past 75 years of our revolution, Karen nationals always took part in the revolution vigorously for the liberation of Karen people, for the liberation of other ethnic people and for the establishment of democracy in Myanmar. During our participation in the revolution like this, there were many challenges. So many of our Karen people had to sacrifice their lives. There were several secessions within the KNU. We had a great challenge. The KNU was different from other revolutionary groups and the KNU experienced most secessions. The KNU had to overcome such challenges with an attitude of a mother." said Pado Saw Hla Tun.  

While seeing Pado Saw Hla Tun, secretary-2 of the KNU

Saw Nerdah Mya, former Commander in Chief of the Karen National Defense Organization (KNDO), announced that he had built the Kawthoolei Army on 16th July 2022 after being suspended from the KNU duties.

After that, battles broke out between the Kawthoolei Army and the Brigade-4 of the KNU after which the International Karen Organization (IKO) had to demand to stop fighting between the two sides as soon as possible.

The Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) seceded from the KNU in January 1994 and made peace with the Tatmadaw. In the same way, the forces from the Brigade-7 of the KNU signed the peace agreement with the government in 2007 and formed the KNU/KNLA Peace Council.

While seeing the leaders of the DKBA

Efforts were being made to re-unite the different Karen armed organizations, Mahn Pyi Aung Soe, chairman of the Karen National Democratic Party, told CNI News.

" Their attitudes are different from one another. Saw Nerdah Mya seceded from the KNU. Among the remaining 7 districts, 6th District is different from others and so is 1st District. The KNU/KNLA Peace Council, the DKBA and the Border Guard Force had tried to re-unite. Now they are still trying. But the result hasn't come out as yet." he said.

At present, there are many Karen EAOs and they are the KNU, the DKBA, the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, the Kawthoolei Army and the Karen State BGF led by Colonel Saw Chit Thu.

CNI News

5 February 2024

The cultivation of winter rice is between 50,000 and 100,000 acres and there has been an increase in the yield, according to farmers. 

Because of the ability to sell the rain rice at a profitable price, the farmers used more inputs in planting winter rice. 

So, although about 70 baskets of rice paddy could be produced from an acre in the past, more than 100 baskets can be produced at present, U Thein Aung, chairman of the Farmers Development Association, told CNI News.

" Winter rice is grown in September and October. The cultivation area of winter rice in three townships _ Kyaunggon, Yegyi and Thabaung _ might be between 50,000 and 100,000 acres. The yield has increased as well. Although about 70 baskets of winter rice could be produced from one acre in the past, but now more than 100 baskets can be produced. The farmers have grown more winter rice," he said.  

The winter rice is grown most in Yegyi, Kyaunggon, Thabaung and Pathein Townships reportedly. However, because the irrigation system in those regions was shallow, during high tide, the water availability in the irrigation system was low, said the farmers.

 While seeing paddy fields

Because the rice paddy could be sold at a profitable price, farmers in some townships grow rice paddy again that could be harvested within 90 days, U Kyaw Aye, a farmer from Ayeyarwady Region, told CNI News.

" In the previous years, farmers didn't continue to grow rice. But now it's not like that anymore. As soon as the winter rice is harvested, they go on growing rice. They can harvest rice in April and May. They are cultivating rice with enthusiasm because they can sell rice at a profitable price. Many farmers have grown winter rice. The government needs to make a list of farmers who grow winter rice and should support them." he said.

There are 3,700,000 acres of rainfed rice cultivation, 100,000 acres of winter rice and 1,500,000 acres of summer rice in Ayeyarwady Region, according to the agricultural department.

At present, the price of 100 baskets of Shwebo Pawsan rice paddy is 2,600,000 kyats, and Ayeyarwady Pawsan is 2,400,000 kyats and other rough rice paddy such as Manaw Thukha, Sinthwe, Ayer Min, Pakham, Zeer, Bay Gyar and so on are from 1,800,000 to 1,900,000 kyats.

CNI News

5 February 2024

Although the air ticket price from Yangon to Rakhine is not expensive, the price of air ticket from Rakhine to Yangon has increased by three times, Rakhine locals who bought air tickets told CNI News. 

The price of air ticket from Rakhine to Yangon has risen to more than 300,000 kyats now although the price was only 200,000 kyats or so in the past. 

However, brokers are asking those who want to left for Yangon from 500,000 to 800,000 kyats, Ko Soe Khine who bought an air ticket told CNI News.

 While seeing the Yangon-Sittwe air ticket price and the departure timetable

" Brokers are asking 700,000 to 800,000 kyats an air ticket. They have bought air tickets in advance and sell them after changing names. The situations in Rakhine State are worrisome. So, many Rakhine locals want to left for Yangon. Tickets are not available when the examinations of basic schools finish. There's a cargo office where the air tickets might be available if you want to leave within a few days to come. The price of air ticket is not so expensive there. But brokers have bought tickets in advance and they ask 550,000 to 600,000 kyats an air ticket although legal price is just 350,000 kyats. Because regular tickets are available only on 20th or 22nd March, those who want to leave ASAP buy air tickets how much expensive they are." he said.

Those who wanted to go regularly could buy air tickets starting from April, people, who went to inquire about buying air tickets, told CNI News.

In buying air tickets from Yangon to Sittwe for April, the price of an air ticket is only 190,000 kyats. However, the price of an air ticket from Sittwe to Yangon is more than 200,000 kyats. 

The relevant state council should handle strictly air ticket price speculation and a regular price should be designated, Ma Mee Mee, a Sittwe resident, told CNI News.

While seeing tourists who will travel by plane

" The current government should inquire if air ticket sellers are officials or brokers, I think. The current government should tell all the agents that sell air tickets what should be done or what should not be done. When the two flights go, air tickets should be sold depending on the current situation. If we have to pay 190,000 kyats an air ticket when we buy in advance for April, we should get an air ticket at 190,000 kyats now, I think. How much is the price of an air ticket? Is it 300,000 or 190,000 or 200,000 kyats? The government should designate and control the price. The government should summon the agents and discuss it, I think." she said.

Rakhine locals have been buying air tickets in advance since December 2023 and there were tricks in relation to selling air tickets according to locals.

Although the flight going to Sittwe from Yangon was not full of passengers, the flight going to Yangon from Sittwe was full of passengers, according to those close to airports.