CNI News
May 18, 2026
Political analyst Dr. M Kawn La told CNI News that Myanmar's new transitional government and the military (Tatmadaw) can implement peace processes while simultaneously controlling Sagaing and Magway Regions.
Currently, the military has regained control of towns along the border of Kachin State and Sagaing Region, including Banmauk, Mawluu, Indaw, Katha, and Htigyaing. It is also observed that they are prioritizing offensive operations in Kachin State, Sagaing Region, and Chin State.
Military and political observers believe the military's intense military operations in these three regions may be a response to statements made a few months ago by Lieut-Gen Gun Maw, a leader of the KIA.
KIA Lieut-Gen Gun Maw had stated that they had designated the Chin Unit, Kachin Unit, Naga Unit, and the "Ka-Thone-Lone" area (consisting of Kanbalu, Kawlin, and Katha). He stated that after seizing control of these areas, they intended to capture and control the entire northern and lower parts of Myanmar.
Dr. M Kawn La explained to CNI News that if the military supply route between Sagaing Region and Kachin State can be severed, the weapons supply lines flowing into Sagaing Region, Magway Region, and Chin State will collapse.
As the Tatmadaw recaptured control of the Mandalay-Indaw-Myitkyina route.
"The battle of Tagaung is the decisive factor. After Tagaung, you reach Htigyaing. In Htigyaing, there is the Tagaung Nickel Factory—the Chinese nickel factory. Furthermore, crossing to the west bank of the Ayeyarwady River means launching military columns directly into the 'Ka-Thone-Lone' territory.
Frankly speaking, once the connection between Sagaing and Kachin is cut off, the weapons supply lines to the upper Myanmar regions of Sagaing and Magway, as well as the entire Chin State dominated by the CNF, will be completely severed. This is highly strategic.
The reason is that the primary weapons supply to Sagaing, Chin, and Magway only comes a little bit from the AA; the vast majority comes from the KIO. It flows directly from the KIO weapons factories. Therefore, from the government's perspective, this operation is crucial. It is something they absolutely must cut off. Only then will they be able to regain control of Sagaing and Magway. I believe they will probably implement peace processes by next month while maintaining control over Sagaing and Magway," he said.
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has been launching a liberation campaign across the northwestern region, linking Kachin State to Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State.
Following military operations lasting over a year and three months, the Myanmar military managed to regain control of the contiguous towns between Sagaing Region and Kachin State on May 6, 2026. Because of this, military and political analysts assess that the KIA is now facing severe challenges in its liberation operations across the northwestern region.
Seen during a meeting among representatives of the MNDAA, Chinese officials, and the Myanmar Military.
Kachin politician U Kun Gawng Awng Kham told CNI News that since elections have been held and the parliament is now established, the military is focusing heavily on territorial control to gain international confidence.
"In the post-2021 landscape, the military has launched offensives to recapture many of the territories previously seized by the combined forces of the PDFs and the KIA. When resolving issues through arms, the side with more power will win. Whether it will be sustainable or not is hard to say.
Mainly, I assume that because the military has concluded its elections and established the parliamentary assembly it desired, it is now focusing primarily on territorial control. This is because achieving such territorial control will allow them to hold elections in some remaining areas. Another factor is that establishing territorial dominance is necessary to demonstrate capability and build confidence with the international community," he said.
Currently, the NSPNC (National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee) has sent invitations to seven out of the ten armed groups that signed the NCA to participate in peace talks, and meetings with some of these groups are already underway.
Similarly, reports have emerged indicating that the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the military's Chief of General Staff (Army, Navy, Air), General Ko Ko Oo, held talks in Kunming, China, from May 12 to 13, 2026. Discussions are reportedly set to continue with the MNDAA and the KIA as well.
