CNI News
April 9, 2026
Military and political analysts are currently debating whether the Arakan Army (AA)—which now controls almost all townships in Rakhine State except for Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—can be regarded in the same light as the "Wa" (UWSA).
The AA is operating independently within Rakhine State, while also acting as a member of the Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State. Additionally, it is engaged in military operations alongside "Spring Revolution" forces in Chin State, Bago Region, and Ayeyarwady Region. It is also collaborating with the KIA and PDF forces in Sagaing Region to expand its security perimeter for Rakhine State.
Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News that the AA cannot yet be treated like the "Wa" because it has not yet demonstrated the ability to masterfully manage the political, administrative, economic, and financial sectors on the ground.
"The AA is not yet stable. Because of this instability, they cannot be regarded like the 'Wa' yet. Furthermore, there are massive international interests in Rakhine. India has the Kaladan Project, and China has the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port project in Rakhine State. There are also plans for railways, roads, and the Kyaukphyu pipeline. We cannot yet estimate if the AA has sufficient strength and capacity to manage all of these."
UWSA leader seen
He further noted the differences in political goals: The AA: Explicitly seeks a "Confederation" status and formal political legitimacy.
The Wa: Governs its own territory autonomously. They don’t frequently use terms like "Confederation" or "Federation," though they have asked for the Union to recognize "Wa State" as a formal constituent unit.
Colonel Khun Okkar added that while the 2008 Constitution defines the Wa region as a "Self-Administered Division," it functions with total autonomy in practice. In contrast, he observed that the AA still faces difficulties in managing finance, social issues, economy, education, health, and international relations effectively on the ground.
According to Section 56(c) of the 2008 Constitution, the Wa Self-Administered Division was formed by grouping six townships: Hopang, Mongmau, Panwai, Nahpan, Metman, and Pangsang (Pangkham).
1989: The UWSA signed a ceasefire with the SLORC government, and the area was designated as "Shan State Special Region (2)."
2011: Administrative mechanisms began fully implemented under the new government following the 2010 elections.
Current Stance: On April 3, the Central Committee of the United Wa State Party (UWSP) sent a message to President Min Aung Hlaing stating that the Wa region is an inseparable part of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar and stands firm against secession or declaring independent statehood.
AA leader seen
A political analyst told CNI News that future dialogue between the AA and the Military (Tatmadaw) depends on two factors: the mutual understanding of "Federalism" and whether the Military believes it can militarily recapture the territories seized by the AA.
"If the Military believes they can retake those areas, they likely won't accept the AA participating in NCA negotiations. If an NCA were signed, a ceasefire would begin, and both sides would have to stay in their current positions to discuss political solutions, eventually leading to constitutional amendments and the transition toward a 'Single Union Army.'"
The analyst noted that since the AA now controls nearly the entire state, whether they can be treated like the "Wa" is a critical issue that any future government must consider in advance.
Military and political observers conclude that the State faces an extremely difficult challenge in resolving the AA issue through military means.
November 2022: An informal ceasefire was reached between the AA and the Military.
November 2023: Fighting resumed and continues to this day.
Goal: AA Commander-in-Chief General Twan Mrat Naing has stated that the Arakanese people will fight for a status "not lower than a Confederation."
Meanwhile, sources close to the matter suggest that the AA has accepted a proposal from Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun to engage in peace talks with the government.
