CNI News
February 19, 2026
There are ongoing discussions among military and political analysts regarding what concessions the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which aims to establish a Kachin Wunpawng Republic, might seek.
In 1994, when the KIA signed a ceasefire agreement with the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), it reportedly requested control of Hpakant but did not receive it, analysts pointed out.
Therefore, based on the current territorial situation in 2026, Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the KIA may now use rare earth minerals and jade as bargaining chips.
He said: “At present, the situation involves rare earth resources. As for demanding a full Kachin Wunpawng Republic, I don’t think they would go that far right now. But their long-term objective is indeed a Kachin Wunpawng Republic. At this time, they control Hpakant jade mines and rare earth resources. They may use those as leverage in negotiations. Back in the 1994 peace process, KIA requested that the government grant them Hpakant, but the government refused. Instead, there may have been another arrangement made with the ABSDF. That is why, after the ceasefire, the KIA reportedly expelled ABSDF forces. Currently, I believe their main bargaining tools are rare earth minerals and jade.”
Lt-Gen Gun Maw and former Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Sun Guoxiang seen together
The KIA has reportedly seized areas in Kachin State where rare earth minerals are produced, including the Panwar region, which has nearly 300 mining blocks. These resources are said to be worth billions of dollars.
China is the main buyer of Myanmar’s rare earth minerals. In 2025, India also began taking steps related to Myanmar’s rare earth sector, and analysts believe the United States has shown interest as well.
Although it is not currently evident that the KIA will demand more than these issues, peace process participant U Khun Sai told CNI News that differences between asking price and offering price could require further negotiations.
He said: “They will definitely continue asking for what they are currently demanding. But we have not yet seen indications that they will demand more than that. In negotiations, there is always an asking price. If one side wants to buy something for one million, and the other side wants five million, they must negotiate. Sometimes something called " one million" may end up selling at fifty thousand or five hundred thousand.”
Lt-Gen Gun Maw of KIA and Sagaing Region seen together
Currently, the KIA is supporting the Arakan Army (AA), the Chin National Front (CNF), Naga armed groups, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), the National Unity Government (NUG), and various PDFs in Sagaing Region by providing weapons and ammunition. They are conducting the “Ka Thone Lone” operation and other offensives aimed at controlling Sagaing Region.
KIA-PDF forces reportedly control Shwe Pyi Aye, Pinlebu, and Indaw towns in Sagaing Region, and are fighting to seize and control Hkamti, Kawlin, Kathar, Wuntho, Tamu, the Naga area, Pale, Monywa, Phaungpyin, Yinmabin, Shwebo, Kalay, Htigyaing, Banmauk, and other towns.
During the Spring Revolution period that began in 2021, the KIA has grown stronger than before. It has supplied weapons and ammunition to many revolutionary groups, provided military training, and supported accommodation needs. It has also supported joint military operations in Sagaing Region and Kachin State.
Additionally, based on remarks made by KIA Deputy Commander-in-Chief Lt-Gen Gun Maw during the Kachin Revolution Day ceremony held in February 2026, analysts believe both military activities and negotiations may intensify.
