CNI News
6 August 2022
There was talk in the international community of expelling Myanmar from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by adopting a new approach if the five-point consensus of the association to solve the Myanmar political crisis fails to work.
However, political observers at home and in the diaspora community said that it was unlikely for the ASEAN to expel Myanmar from the regional body.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based political observer, told the CNI, “The ASEAN is not likely to expel Myanmar from their association. It was learnt that a Myanmar diplomat attended the foreign ministers meeting of the ASEAN although Myanmar was not officially invited. So, a paragraph had to be dropped from the joint communique because of the protest of the diplomat. However, it is unlikely that the ASEAN will expel Myanmar from the regional body because it needs to build the regional economic forum into an entire supply chain. It may take action against or apply pressure on the junta.
US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said in his interview with the VOS Burmese that the ASEAN was required to review the situation and take action against Myanmar by suspending its membership.
US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken at the ASEAN meeting.
He said, “Well, I think it has to take account of the fact that the regime has refused to implement the five-point consensus and draw whatever conclusions it must from that. I think making sure, right now, that there is nonpolitical representation in ASEAN is exactly the right step. But if this continues, I think ASEAN has to look at what that means, including suspension of Myanmar.”
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw added that nowadays, the US can no longer dictate what it wants to other countries.
The ASEAN recently decided not to invite the SAC to its foreign ministers' meetings and summits and to allow it to send a non-political diplomatic representative.
Prak Sokhonn, the Cambodian foreign minister and ASEAN special envoy, said that Myanmar generals were required to show progress and the ASEAN agreed that without future progress, its position on Myanmar would have to be reconsidered.
Political Analyst U Ye Tun said that it was possible for the ASEAN to expel Myanmar from the regional body if they could reach a consensus on the issue.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Special Envoy Prak Sokhonn.
U Ye Tun told the CNI, “According to the ASEAN Charter, important decisions are made by consensus. So, if all member states agree to expel Myanmar, it is possible to do so. If the SAC decides to suspend membership or leave the regional body because it did not invite them to its meetings, the ASEAN will also have to expel Myanmar.”
SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said in his speech on 1st August, 2022 that Myanmar was not able to implement the five-point consensus of the ASEAN due to instabilities and might be able to do so in the future.
The five-point consensus includes ending violence, release of political prisoners, dialogues with all stakeholders, providing humanitarian assistance and appointment of a special envoy to mediate political dialogues.
ASEAN Special Envoy Prak Sokhonn visited Myanmar twice but failed to make progress to help overcome Myanmar political crisis. It was learnt that the SAC promised to allow the special envoy to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on his third visit to Myanmar in September-October.
