CNI News

January 20, 2026

If negotiations were to take place between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), the National Unity Government (NUG) and the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) could become a bargaining chip for the KIA, according to Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), in an interview with CNI News.

In 1994, while allied with armed groups in the southern region, the KIA separately made peace with the Myanmar military. After reaching a ceasefire agreement, it expelled the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF) from its controlled territory.

Therefore, military and political observers point out that under the current circumstances, the KIA might similarly utilize the NUG and PDF for its national interests, following a pattern seen in its historical actions.

Sai Htay Aung stated that it cannot be ruled out that the KIA could not again act in its own interests as it did in the past, and under current conditions, the NUG could potentially become a bargaining card for the KIA.

He said: “They (KIA) will likely reassess the strengths and weaknesses of what they did in the past. They may follow the old path again. In 1994, they signed a ceasefire with the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) government. After that ceasefire, they expelled the ABSDF from the north. At that time, the ABSDF was under the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB). So the KIA headquarters expelled them.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited the Naga region on February 16, 2026.

Now too, if there are benefits to be gained, it cannot be said that the KIA would not make peace with the military. They did so in the past and gained significant benefits. Today, since the organization prioritizes national interests, if it sees advantages for its people, it cannot be said they would refrain from doing so. Just as they made peace in 1994 and expelled the ABSDF in 1996, we cannot say they would not take similar action now regarding the NUG.From their perspective, they need to hold as many strong cards as possible. The NUG-PDF could become one such bargaining chip for negotiations.”

He further said that even if discussions occur between the KIA and the Myanmar military, it would not necessarily mean a surrender-type negotiation.

“There is a possibility of talks. But talks would not mean surrender. While discussions may take place, fighting would likely continue on the ground. The KIA would push for its demands, while the government would negotiate based on the 2008 Constitution. We may see repeated talks that produce no concrete results.”

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that based on remarks by KIA Deputy Commander-in-Chief Lieutenant General Gun Maw, the KIA does not currently appear eager to negotiate with the Myanmar military. Even if talks were unavoidable, the KIA might not significantly factor in the NUG-PDF.

KIA leader Gun Maw and a view of Sagaing Region.

He said: “From what General Gun Maw has said, it appears that the KIA itself is not ready to negotiate with the government. When the KIA says that negotiations must include the NUG-PDF, it suggests it is stating a condition the Myanmar government cannot accept, rather than outright rejecting talks. Therefore, at this moment, the KIA does not seem ready to negotiate.

If they are forced into negotiations, they may not heavily factor in the NUG-PDF. What matters most is how much benefit they gain. For the KIA, the NUG is something they can utilize effectively — even like a ‘joker card.’ The reason is that they have reached a situation they could never have imagined before, such as treating Sagaing Region as a strategic buffer. Previously, this was not possible. This time, they might be able to do it because of this ‘card.’”

Currently, the KIA is reportedly supporting the NUG-PDF and other armed groups in Sagaing Region by supplying weapons and ammunition. Through the “Ka Thone Lone” (Kantbalu–Kawlin–Katha) military operation, the KIA is attempting to gain control of the entire Sagaing Region and expand influence across the northwestern region.