CNI Interview

February 9, 2026

Following the completion of the 2025 General Election in Myanmar, Parliament (Hluttaw) is scheduled to convene in March, with a new government set to be formed in April. 
Prior to this, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing signed and enacted the Union Consultative Council Law on February 3, 2026. 

Meanwhile, China and India are closely monitoring how trade and peace processes will evolve once the new government takes office. CNI News contacted political analyst U An Kaw La to discuss these developments.

CNI: There are rumors that the new government will be a "National Reconciliation" or "Coalition" type. Wouldn't it be more effective if government departments had some level of decentralized authority rather than the Union government holding all the power? If they just have to follow central orders, will anything really change?

U An Kaw La: Since the era of the State Administration Council (SAC), there has been a roadmap stating that Myanmar will move toward democracy and a federal system. They have declared this since 2021 and have consistently stuck to this principle as the first point of the political roadmap. In democracy and federalism, Decentralization and the Division of Power are key. The important thing is how these will be implemented.

Since the policy already exists, the bylaws must follow. Implementation would be a positive move—a "good transition." The real question is the extent of decentralization: will it be "control-based decentralization" or true autonomy? These are critical political decisions. Much depends on how magnanimous the current ruling party and the Military Commission are. If they can create a precursor model for future peace, it would build trust. Whether it happens and to what extent remains to be seen.

CNI: What is your view on the newly enacted Union Consultative Council Law?

U An Kaw La: I see this as an evolution of existing legal frameworks. During the NLD government, there was the "State Counsellor Law," which was person-centric, specifically created for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to lead alongside the government.

Now, the "Union Consultative Council" suggests a group-based approach. This group will likely coordinate with the Executive and the Legislature to handle national stability, peace, international relations, and legal matters. In my view, an aggregate group is better because it can provide a power balance and stronger counter-balances. I see this as a "Methodology" for the democratization and federal transition period. It implements the roadmap by working through three collective bodies.

CNI: The law states the President must assign duties and powers to the Council. How much authority do you think the Council will actually have?

U An Kaw La: I view this as a State Think Tank. Currently, we see advisory roles within the Military Commission and the SAC. In a complex landscape—navigating ASEAN, regional issues, and balancing global superpowers—a government cannot act alone. It needs an elite group of experts.

The global context is changing rapidly. We need a Council that constantly studies the strategies and policies of other nations. I like this idea. Having a high-level Think Tank to counsel the government will make implementation more effective.

CNI: The President has the power to appoint the Chairman and Secretary of the Union Comsultative Council. What kind of individuals do you expect to see?

U An Kaw La: Legally, the President is the highest head of state under the 2008 Constitution, so this is consistent. While it is hard to predict specific names, I expect to see influential ethnic leaders included. This would be beneficial. Our country needs a coalition-style leadership.

If the leadership continues to be dominated solely by the Bamar ethnic group, it isn't ideal for long-term peace. Including ethnic intellectuals in the leadership would facilitate a more collective and successful political transition.

CNI: Regarding the military situation, what are the attitudes of China toward the KIA (Kachin) and the AA (Arakan) in the current context?

U An Kaw La: We must estimate China’s policy. China prefers a strong, stable institution at the center, but they also favor "tax autonomy" and "trade autonomy" linked with peace processes.

Looking at the current conflicts along the border, we can see China’s positioning. Myanmar needs to consider a "New Ideology" for the Union. If we base our thinking on the non-disintegration of the Union and ethnic unity while integrating this new ideology, we will get closer to a real solution. This is a major responsibility for the new government.

CNI: What factors have allowed the KIA and AA to become so strong and well-established?

U An Kaw La: This requires an analysis of Geopolitics. It depends on the shifting policies of China and India. Both the KIA and AA directly interact with India and China along the borders. I don't see direct pressure from India or China in these interactions; rather, they seem to follow policies focused on their own border states.

The alliance dynamics between China and India shifted after the meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping at the last SCO summit. We see plans for trade routes like the Panwa-Kanpaiti road. The survival and actions of the AA and KIA are now deeply intertwined with the diplomacy of India, China, and the Myanmar government. We need a more sophisticated diplomatic approach; otherwise, things will remain difficult.