CNI News
January 5, 2026
In the political and military landscape that will emerge after the elections, China may be able to draw the “Wa” Army (UWSA), the Kokang Army (MNDAA), and the Mongla Army (NDAA) onto the peace process, according to China–Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, who spoke to CNI News.
She said that regardless of which government comes to power after the elections in Myanmar, China will recognize and support it. In the coming military situation, China may attempt to bring the Wa, Mongla, and Kokang groups to the peace negotiation table.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw stated: “China will support and recognize whoever comes to power in Myanmar. Even if the USDP comes to power, China will support it. China’s perspective is that if development advances and people’s economic conditions improve, stability will follow. That’s how they calculate it. So if a proper government emerges, China will be able to carry out its projects in Myanmar effectively. They have investments here—projects like the roads leading to the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and others. If all of these are implemented and Myanmar’s basic infrastructure improves significantly, China believes the country will become stable and peaceful. Therefore, I think China will continue to support the next government. They will try to promote economic development. China will definitely enter through economic means. They will work to improve infrastructure and help ease people’s livelihoods.
Colonel Khun Okkar
“Even now, what I’m hearing is that China is very actively and intensively involved in border areas such as Wa, Mongla, and Kokang. They are deeply involved in agriculture and other sectors, providing assistance. Through this approach, they try to stabilize one side and then bring everyone to the peace negotiation table. I think that’s what China is attempting.”
Chinese investment projects in Myanmar include the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, the Myitsone Dam, elevated railways, the Kanpiketi (Kanpaiti) economic cooperation zone, the Muse–Mandalay trade route and railway, the Ruili–Mandalay–Kyaukphyu expressway, among many others.
Whether China will come to dominate Myanmar is difficult to say. However, Myanmar is in a position where it will have to rely on China to some extent. The incoming government could be one that cooperates strategically with China, according to Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which is a signatory to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), speaking to CNI News.
Two leaders from PNLO and ALP
He said: “China prioritizes economics. No matter what system a country is governed under, as long as the country is stable and China can conduct its business, that is enough for them. So whether it’s peace or democracy—whatever the issue—China doesn’t place much importance on that. What China truly cares about is stability. Stability is the core of its foreign policy. If there is stability, China can operate. It’s hard to say that China will dominate. Between one country and another, one sovereignty and another, one government and another, what they call it is ‘strategic cooperation.’ That’s a political term. But the element of dependence will still exist. Given the country’s current situation, reconstruction cannot be done independently.“Politically, armed organizations can be invited back to the negotiation table. The government can continue the NCA-based peace talks that are currently underway. Those who are fighting can be invited back as well. I believe they will repeat the methods used by U Thein Sein—approaches that can ease international sanctions.”
Organizations that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) include: the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Union / Karen National Liberation Army–Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), PNLO, New Mon State Party (NMSP), Chin National Front (CNF), All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF), Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), and the Karen National Union (KNU).
However, following the political changes after February 1, 2021, CNF, ABSDF, and KNU withdrew, stating that the NCA had collapsed. PNLO, ALP, LDU, and NMSP also split into two factions. Meanwhile, groups that have not signed the NCA include UWSA, NDAA, MNDAA, TNLA, KIA, SSPP, AA, and KNPP.
