CNI News

12 December 2025

Regarding the leadership of the government that will emerge in Myanmar after the upcoming multi-party democratic general election, various assessments are being made among military and political analysts.

According to these analysts, there are currently three scenarios being discussed. Among them, the first scenario is that a government similar to the one led by former President U Thein Sein—one that strongly desires reforms—could come to power, leading the country back toward improvement. This was stated to CNI News by U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process.

He said,“Scenario number two is that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing might not take the top government post himself, but continue serving as Commander-in-Chief of the military. Then he would appoint someone he trusts as the leader of the government. If that happens, things could improve to some extent. But it wouldn’t be as good as the first scenario. The second scenario has some positive sides, but it’s still uncertain.Scenario number three is that Min Aung Hlaing himself becomes the government leader. If that happens, he will be holding complete control—leading the military on one side and leading the government on the other. In that situation, those of us on the revolutionary side will obviously continue our struggle. Most of our revolutionary forces would need to rely more heavily on ourselves. Unlike before, financial support from our people abroad has decreased and so has international assistance, and if we do not receive recognition, we will face many hardships. It seems that U Min Aung Hlaing and his circle have already calculated these factors. So, of the three scenarios, we hope for the first one. And we pray that scenarios two and three do not happen.”

Political parties meeting with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

He added that if the third scenario—where Senior General Min Aung Hlaing leads both the government and the military—comes true, Myanmar will continue to struggle.

U Khin Yi, Chairman of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), said on 27 November 2025, during a campaign event in Pathein, Ayeyarwady Region, that if the next government cannot closely cooperate with the military, it will collapse the very next day. Based on that argument, he urged voters to cast their ballots for the USDP.

Analysts say that if the civilian government that emerges after the election cannot effectively operate administrative mechanisms amid widespread armed conflicts, it may have to hand power back to the military.

At present, the National League for Democracy (NLD)—the party that usually wins the most seats in Myanmar’s elections—is not expected to participate in the upcoming election, and its leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other members remain in detention.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

Therefore, U Khun Sai said he does not expect Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or members of the NLD to be granted freedom before the election.

He said,“What should be done is obvious—we don’t need to say it. President U Thein Sein already did the right thing in the past. But what is more likely now is something similar to what former Senior General Than Shwe did—releasing Daw Suu only after the election. Why? Because if she is released before the election, things could become chaotic or the election might even be disrupted. At this time, it would be even worse. So I don’t think the authorities will give any freedom to Daw Suu or the NLD before the election. As for the upcoming election, no matter what, the party led by the military will certainly win. There is no doubt about that.”

During the period of former Senior General Than Shwe, an election was held and state power was later transferred to a government led by U Thein Sein. At that time, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was released and numerous political changes took place.

Military and political analysts are hoping that a similar situation may arise again after the upcoming election.