CNI News
13 November 2025
Political analyst Sai Main told CNI News that joint forces of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and People’s Defense Forces (PDF) may move in to take control of Momeik Township in northern Shan State, which the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) is set to withdraw from.
Following the ninth round of peace talks between the Myanmar military(Tatmadaw) and TNLA, mediated by China, both sides agreed to a ceasefire starting October 29. As part of the deal, TNLA would withdraw its troops from Mogok and Momeik.
However, since the announcement, tensions have risen along the Shan State–Mandalay Region border, and the MDY-PDF has declared that it will not easily relinquish territories captured during the Spring Revolution period.
The MDY-PDF comrades
As a result, fierce clashes could break out again between KIA-PDF allied forces and the Myanmar military in the Momeik area, said Sai Main.
“Heavy fighting could erupt around Momeik. Even though TNLA has agreed with the military commission to withdraw, the KIA and PDF forces there will not accept it.Previously, KIA attacked and took control of Momeik for about a week or two before TNLA retook it and incorporated it into its controlled territory. So, KIA and PDF forces might move back in to reclaim positions,and if that happens, clashes with the junta forces are very likely,”
he explained.
In January 2024, during the Operation 1027 campaign, KIA, AA, ABSDF, and KPDF joint forces captured Mabein town north of Momeik, but were later forced to withdraw.
Following TNLA’s recent withdrawal announcement, KIA and PDF units have already begun mobilizing around Momeik District, reportedly for security and positioning purposes.
Currently, TNLA is the only ethnic armed group still engaged in direct fighting with the Myanmar military in Shan State.
However, since a political agreement was reached between the two sides, a ceasefire has now been put in place.
According to analyst Sai Main, this situation means that most ethnic armed groups in Shan State have now halted fighting with the junta, making further large-scale military operations in northern Shan unlikely.
TNLA and PDF troops
“At the moment, TNLA is the only group still actively fighting the junta in Shan State.
The SSPP has already signed a bilateral agreement at the Union level,and the RCSS has signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).Given this, I don’t expect to see major fighting in other areas of northern Shan,”, said Sai Main.
Since the 2021 political upheaval, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have emerged across the country and have cooperated with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to fight against the Myanmar military.
Although these EAO-PDF joint forces were able to capture significant territories, many were later handed back to the military under agreements mediated by neighboring countries during peace talks.
For example, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) handed back control of Lashio, and although Spring Revolution groups did not publicly oppose that move, questions have been raised by observers about the TNLA’s decision to hand over two towns to the military — a move that many resistance groups did not accept.
Meanwhile, the KIA is reportedly engaged in confidential coordination with the Myanmar military regarding potential peace talks, and both sides have agreed to meet for discussions soon.
