CNI News

7 August 2025

The Myanmar Tatmadaw may prioritize military action in areas that pose a direct threat to Naypyidaw, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which has signed the NCA, told CNI News.

Furthermore, efforts will have to be made for a certain period of time to successfully hold elections, and efforts will have to be made until a new government and parliament emerge, he said.

“The military may try to regain military dominance in the so-called Central Region - Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay regions because these regions can directly threaten Naypyidaw. I think the election must be at least partially successful for legitimacy," he said.

The National Defense and Security Council announced on July 31, 2025, that a state of emergency has been declared in 63 townships in the regions and states for 90 days in order to effectively maintain regional peace and stability and enforce the rule of law. 

While security forces have been deployed in Naypyidaw

These townships are 5 townships in Kachin State, 3 townships in Kayah State, 2 townships in Kayin State, 7 townships in Chin State, 9 townships in Sagaing Region, 5 townships in Magway Region, 3 townships in Mandalay Region, 14 townships in Rakhine State, and 15 townships in Shan State.

Hopan Township in the “Wa” Special Region, Mong La Township in the Mong La Special Region, and Laukkai Township in the Kokang Special Region are remarkably included in the 15 townships in Shan State, where a state of emergency has been declared.

The Tatmadaw is currently not sure which region it will attack, and may  carry out military operations depending on the places where the opposing forces.are fighting, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an analyst on China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI News.

Naypyidaw

“If the AA attacks, the Tatmadaw will go to that attack area. If there are battles in Sagaing Region, it will go to Sagaing. If it’s Bhamo, it will go to Bhamo, I think. They don’t seem to have a systematic plan for which area to attack and how to attack. There are no people in the Tatmadaw who can coordinate and execute strategically. They have nothing to recover from. But they have all their basic needs. It's not as easy as we think to defeat them in a short time. I think they will continue to fight as long as they can as long as they can recruit reinforcements," she said.

The 63 townships where the National Defense and Security Council declared a state of emergency are those where fighting is taking place between TNLA, AA, KNU, KIA, CNF, PDF, and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. 

Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw is conducting offensives against TNLA-controlled Mogok, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw, while it is waging defense operation not to lose control of Bhamo that the KIA is launching an offensive.

Similarly, clashes are also taking place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups in Rakhine State, Kayin State, Sagaing Region, and Chin State.