CNI Article
21 March 2025
Write by Chit Min Tun
Amid the changing political landscape after February 1, 2021, Sagaing Region that was peaceful and stable in the past has become filled with battles. The war in Sagaing Region reduced Myanmar's rice reserves and caused food shortages in the region.
Prices of goods have risen sharply, causing difficulties for the local people in terms of food and livelihood. The worst thing is that due to battles, many locals in Tigyaing, Yinmabin, Pale Pinlebu, Katha, Kawlin, Indaw, Banmaunk, Homalin, Tamu, Kalay, Khampat and Shwe Pyi Aye Totwnships have become IDPs and they have lost their houses.
Although unarmed civilians get into various troubles, armed people make a lot of money and can live very well. Because Sagaing Region is very rich in natural resources, various armed groups are earning a large amount of money from the permits for the extraction or production of natural resources.
What armed groups are active in Sagaing Region? What resources are available in the region? What types of armed groups are active in what part of region? These things should be studied.
When seeing a map showing the location of armed groups' bases and movements
Firstly, let's study what armed groups are active in Sagaing Region. There are the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (there are at least six Naga armed groups in Sagaing Region), the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), the Meitei armed group (PLA, MPA), the KIA, the AA, the ABSDF, and the KNU.
Moreover, the Chin National Front, the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA/ZRO), the Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B), the PDFs under the NUG, the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), the People Liberation Army (PLA-Communist), the 96 Soldier led by Ko Zeyar Lwin, the Chin National Defense Force (CNDF) and local PDFs as well as Militia Forces under the Myanmar Tatmadaw are also active in Sagaing Region.
As the second point, natural gas, petroleum, precious stones, gold, copper, timber, white silver, chromite, platinum, coal, iron, rare earth and so on are produced in Sagaing Region.
For example, timber, gold, gas (it has not been dug out), petroleum (it has not been dug out), white silver, rare earth (it has not been dug out), coal etc. are produced in Homalin Township, according to geological surveys.
In the township, the SNA and the Homalin People's Defense Force (HPDF), the HPDF-124 and Khamti District Battalions are active and a few KIA forces are also there. However, the SNA has controlled 80 percent of the township.
Seeing the Shan Red National Army (SNA)
In the same way, in Khamti Township, precious stone, gold, coal, petroleum ( still not dug out), gas (still not dug out) and other natural resources are produced. The SNA, the NSCN-K/AM, the Naga People's Defense Force (NPDF), the Eastern Naga National Organization (ENNO/ENDA) are active in this township.
Moreover, gold, gas (still not dug out), coal, nickel, chromite, copper and platinum are produced in the Naga Self-Administered Zone and the Naga-India border areas.
In these territories, the NSCN-K/AM, the NSCN-K/YA, the NSCN-IM, the NSCN-HS, the SNA, the ENNO and the NPDF are active.
Moreover, in Tamu Township, gold, gas (still not dug out), coal, nickel, chromite, copper and platinum are produced, according to geological surveys. In the township, the Meitei armed groups, the SNA, the NSCN-IM, the NSCN-HS, the KNA-B, the Tamu PDF and the CNDF are active.
Moreover, natural resources are produced in Kalay, Lalaywa, Mingin, Yinmabin, Pale, Shwebo, Monywa, Kani, Mawlike, Tigyaing, Katha, Banmauk, Indaw, Kawlin, Wuntho, Pinlebu and Shwe Pyi Aye Townships and a variety of armed groups are active in these townships as well.
Therefore, Sagaing Region has become the region where the most severe armed conflicts are taking place and neighboring countries are interested in getting natural resources from the region at lower prices.
As Sagaing Region borders not only India but also China, the two countries may be interested in natural resources in the region.
If there are instabilities within Sagaing Region, it may be a disturbance for India and because Naga and Meitei armed groups whom India considers to be Chinese agents, and other armed groups are active in the region, India might watch the situation carefully.
While showing the armed movement in Sagaing Region
It is interesting to see how India will approach a large number of armed groups within Sagaing Region to be able to extract natural resources or implement investment projects.
However, in comparison with China, India is slower to approach armed groups within Myanmar. So, whether China will win India by a neck is very interesting.
On the other hand, the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing reportedly offered Russia to invest in extracting jade in Khamti Township, Sagaing Region during his trips to Russia and Belarus.
If a balance of power arose among powerful countries due to resource extraction goals, it would be worrying that battles would be intense within Sagaing Region.
So, powerful countries will have to take regional armed groups into account if they invest in resource extraction because a variety of armed groups are active within Sagaing Region and there have been different territorial controls.
Meeting with the Chairman of the National Assembly and Russian President Putin
However, as the SAC imposed the private security service law on 19 February 2025, if foreign countries make investments in Myanmar, they will be able to provide security by arming themselves with their own plans to protect their companies, staff, projects and investments.
Locals are worried that proxy wars will break out in Sagaing Region from the competition for resources among powerful countries.
At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups as well as among armed groups in Sagaing Region.
If the battles within Sagaing Region are analysed, battles are breaking out between the armed groups - the PDFs, the BNRA, the 96 Soldier, the KNU, the PLA, the KIA, the ABSDF, the CNDF, and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, militia, Pyusawhti forces in Pale, Yinmabin, Monywa, Shwebo, Wetlet, Chaung U, Mingin, Kantblu, Kyun Hla, Kalay, Kalaywa and Kani Townships in the power part of Sagaing Region.
In the middle part of Sagaing Region, battles are breaking out among the AA, the ABSDF, the KIA, the PDFs, the CNF, the CNDF, the SNA, the Meitei armed group, the NSCN-IM and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Mawlike, Kawlin, Tigyaing, Khampat, Pinlebu, Wuntho, Tamu, Phaungbyin, Indaw, Katha and Banmauk Townships.
In the same way, in the upper part of Sagaing Region, battles are breaking out between the SNA and the KIA-PDF joint forces in Homalin, Khamti, Leshi, Htan Par Khway, Lahe, Donhee, Nanyun, and Pansaung Townships.
Seeing the joint KIA and PDFs forces
On the other hand, the KIA and the NUG are trying hard to seize control of the entire Sagaing Region. However, the SNA is a hindrance for them.
So, the KIA and the NUG might try to overthrow the SNA by fighting against or offer a dialogue to the SNA. If the KIA and the PDF can win the SNA militarily, there will be no need to discuss and will have resolved so as not to make the SNA exist in the future.
After discussing with the SNA, if the NUG and the KIA can make allies with it, they will capture the entire Sagaing Region as soon as possible.
If armed groups were able to seize control of the middle and upper parts of Sagaing Region, it would help to control the Northwest Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the entire Chin State.
And then, the military operations by armed groups within Mandalay and Magway Regions could also be accelerated by support from within Sagaing Region.
Considering all these situations, the future of Sagaing Region may still be far from being free from war.
In any case, what will happen to the future of Sagaing Region or the land rich in natural resources will be watched.
