CNI News

31 January 2025

The three northern ally groups (TNLA-MNDAA-AA) are no longer holding joint meetings and discussions as they used to and it is unusual for each group to hold separate meetings and issue statements, which military and political analysts are considering and discussing.

That situation was unique and except for the MNDAA that discussed ceasefire with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, it was questionable what China had known about other armed organizations, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

“The Northern Alliance is made up of the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA. This time, the MNDAA alone discussed the ceasefire. So, what has China known about the two remaining groups? Can the SAC discuss with them? It must be watched. In the past, statements were issued in the name of the Northern Alliance. But now they issue statements separately. It is an unusual point." said U Thein Tun Oo.

The MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA launched Operation-1027 together and were able to capture many territories including Lashio and Laukkai. Each of the northern alliance waged battles in the region concerned and was able to capture territories. So, statements regarding political dialogue were individually issued, not as the Northern Alliance.

Doing like this was possible because of different region or because the SAC could not discuss with those three groups at the same time, it discussed with them separately, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI.

While seeing the leader of the MNDAA and Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar Tatmadaw

" Because of regionally difference, they have to issue statements separately, I think. Because the SAC refuses to meet the three northern allies at the same time, it meet with the three groups separately, I heard. The places and levels they have gained are different. They will work together on the same things, and separate the different things. With this policy, when they carry out, they are strengthening their administration in their regions, I think. That's why they issue statements separately, I think." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

The AA started its military operations in Rakhine State on 13th November 2023 over two weeks later than Operation-1027 was launched. And then the AA has captured 14 townships and the West Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw. According to the Haigen Agreement resulted from third meeting between the Northern Alliance and the Myanmar Tatmadaw held in China with China's mediation, a ceasefire agreement was reached in northern Shan State and they started a temporary ceasefire at 9:00 p.m. on 11th January 2024.

However, because battles resumed between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in June, the agreement was broken. At present, the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw have ceased fire temporarily. Negotiations reportedly are being conducted to hold discussions between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA/the AA.