CNI News

30 January 2025

Instead of meeting with all the EAOs at the same time, the State Administration Council (SAC) probably would meet informally with EAOs separately, military and political analysts told CNI News. 

The SAC has already met with the MNDAA twice and a temporary ceasefire agreement has been reached between the two sides. The MNDAA was the origin of the dialogue and if the SAC had  already discussed with all three northern allies, it would have been the opening of the dialogue, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" The discussion between the SAC and the MNDAA is the beginning of the dialogue. Later, if the SAC met with the two remaining northern allies - the TNLA and the AA, it would be the opening of the dialogue. If the UWSA, the NDAA and the SSPP are invited to discuss, they will surely come. And then, the 7 NCA signatories are ready to make a dialogue. Moreover, there are 7 NCA signatories that stand with the three northern allies. They can take part in the dialogue as well. 13 or 14 organizations could meet with the SAC informally." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC and chairman of the RCSS

Although China had already met with three northern allies by the end of 2024, the SAC met only with the MNDAA. However, the SAC could meet with the TNLA in February, 2025 although the TNLA seemed to want to prolong, considering some people.

The reason why the TNLA wanted to prolong the discussion was because the MNDAA and the AA had already captured military commands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA had not captured any military command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA wanted to wage battles, pointed out some people. 

Later, because the objectives of ethnic armed groups are different, according to the alliance formation , it was not easy to hold an all-inclusive dialogue, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While the 8th anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

" It's likely that the SAC will meet with armed organizations separately, but it's not easy to discuss that the SAC will meet with an alliance or hold an all-inclusive dialogue because real ambitions of ethnic armed groups have emerged now. Ethnic armed groups are walking on different paths. The SAC probably might meet with ethnic armed groups separately. If so, what kind of negotiation will be conducted? We'll have to watch it, I think." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Planning for elections should not be a priority while armed conflicts are escalating and a ceasefire should be conducted first, which ASEAN countries has urged the SAC. If the election was held first, problems may be more complicated, pointed out military and political analysts.