CNI Article

8 February 2024

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), says every so often that the SAC will hold the election and hand over the State power to the winning party. 

However, the SAC doesn't say clearly that the election they will hold is whether a general election or by-elections.

In the same way, even though the SAC overthrew the NLD government, saying that the NLD was trying to get the State power without solving the vote list dispute, it hasn't announced decidedly whether the results of the 2020 general election have been void or not.

So, is a new election that Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing means is either a general election or bi-elections or what kind of election? It is food for thought or questionable.

After the NLD government was overthrown on February 1, 2021 by the Tatmadaw, security operations were being carried out

The SAC hasn't revealed for the time being when the election will be held. However, it's said that it will conduct the national census-taking in 2024 after which the election will be held. So, the election that will be sponsored by the SAC might be held in 2025 or 2026. In any case, the SAC will look for a political exit.

On the other hand, armed conflicts are severely taking place in many parts of the country and there has been an increase in the territories that the SAC lost control of. 

A general election was held in 2010, and by-elections, in 2012 and a general election, in 2015 and by-elections, in 2017 and a general election, in 2020. In any case, the number of constituencies that will take part in the election to be held under the SAC government probably will be less.

In a situation like this, there's something to be considered whether the SAC will hold a general election or by-elections. If a general election was held, the results of the 2020 general election would be void automatically, that we could deem.

Otherwise, if by-elections were held, the SAC would temporarily suspend the results of the 2020 general election without abolishing them. And then, the Hluttaw that contains the representatives who win in the by-elections will be held and an elected political party government might be formed.

While the UEC was explaining the voting system to political parties

There might be some disputable issues in a situation like that. The disputable issues might include whether the public will accept it or not and if the results of the 2020 general election were not cancelled, the NLD MPs would be recognized.

However, the law relating to political parties registration that was enacted on 26th January 2023 by the SAC and the law that amends the law relating to political parties registration that was imposed on 30th January 2024 by the SAC should be studied and compared.  

According to the section-2 (g) of the law relating to political parties registration, the by-election is the election that is occasionally held by the Union Election Commission for the vacant constituencies because during a normal Hluttaw tenure, the election has been put off in a constituency or an MP passes away or an MP has been removed from its position in accordance with the law.

According to the section-2(g) of the law that amends the political parties registration law, the by-election is the election occasionally held by the UEC for the vacant constituencies when a member of the Hluttaw resigns or passes away or is removed from the membership of the Hluttaw in accordance with the law. As an amendment, a point saying 'because the election is put off during a tenure of the Hluttaw' is omitted.

While seeing the chairman of the NLD party Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

If that is the case, the SAC will no longer hold the next election as a general election but will hold the election as by-elections only and winners of the by-elections will be added to the elected representatives from the 2020 general election. 

After that, the Hluttaw will be held with more than half of all the members of the Hluttaw. In this way, the SAC will overcome the crisis, won't they? If that kind of political landscape was created, the requested fact that the results of the 2020 must be internationally recognized would have already accepted.

In the same way, political parties that have won in the 2020 general election and that don't want to collaborate with the Tatmadaw must attend the Hluttaw and will have to continue to participate in politics.

As the NLD has won in the 2020 general election, the fact that it will form a government might be confused because most of the NLD MPs have chosen the armed path and taken part in the NUG. So, they might be removed for the membership of the Hluttaw according to the law.

Some of the NLD MPs passed away and others might resign from the membership. So, candidates with the second highest number of votes in the constituencies where the NLD candidates have won might be declared as winners by the UEC.

While announcing the results of the election

That's why the SAC probably will hold by-elections rather than a general election. After that, an elected government and the Hluttaw will arise and some of the opposition elements probably will arrive in the Hluttaw. If that happens, the situation that a single person has handled three powers-legislative power, administrative power and judicial power-can be overcome and three powers can be distributed.

After three powers can be distributed, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will make a choice whether he will go on staying in the Tatmadaw or take government responsibility.

At any rate, the Hluttaw, the government and the Tatmadaw need to be separate institutions. If a single person has handled three powers, the country is more likely to decline than it is likely to improve.

So, we'll keep a close watch the law that amends the political parties registration law is whether a political strategy of the SAC or an exit for the country and the public.