CNI Article
28 November 2023
Now is the time armed forces across the country are trying to overthrow the Tatmadaw, which everyone knows. Among these armed forces, let's study how the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is waging its operations.
Gathering those who are willing to fight against the Tatmadaw in Sagaing Region bordering with Kachin State, the KIA started providing military trainings to them and arming them with weapons. And then, the KIA led the operations, built the supporting channels and connected with other EAOs.
After managing these situations, the KIA has been found to to have laid down three operational strategies and to be implementing them in order to be able to control the entire Sagaing Region.
These operations are (1) Banmauk Township Centered Operation, (2) Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kanbalu) Operation and (3) Tigyaing Township Centered Operation.
As number one, if the KIA was able to control Banmauk Township, it would be able to attack Indaw and Katha and then Pinlebu. If it was able to control, it would be able to easily attack Phaungbyin, Shwe Pyi Aye and Homalin Towns.
In order to be able to attack these towns, according to military strategy, Banmauk Township is important to the KIA so that it will be able to transport weapons and ammunition.
The route that weapons can be transported to Banmauk is the one from Mohnyin Township in Kachin State, Maw Han, Mawlu to Indaw. The next route is the one going from Shwegu Township to Katha Township in Sagaing Region from which goes to Indaw and Banmauk.
No.2 Operation is Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kanbalu) Operation. It is to control Katha firstly. If the KIA has been able to control Katha, it will go on trying to control Kawlin and then Kanbalu to the south of Kawlin. Now that the KIA has controlled Kawlin, its forces have been deployed in Kyunhla near Kanbalu so that it can prevent Kawlin from fighting by the Tatmadaw and at the same time, it is putting pressure on Kanbalu. In order to succeed in this operation, arms and ammunition can be supported from Shwegu, Mohnyin, Indaw routes
Shanni Region
No.3 is the Tigyaing Township Centered Operation. The KIA has started attacking Tigyaing and already controlled rural area of the township. Mainly, arms and ammunition can be sent to Tigyaing through Shwegu in Kachin State and Katha as well. Moreover, arms and ammunition can be sent from Mabein in Mandalay Region.
If the KIA had already controlled the entire Tigyaing Township, it would have controlled the Ayeyarwady waterway and channel that has been connected between Kachin State, Sagaing and Mandalay Regions.
After that, the KIA will continue to put military pressure on Mandalay Region.
The KIA and its allies - the Chin National Front (CNF), the Chin National Defense Force (CNDF), the People Defense Force (PDF), the Kuki National Organization-Burma (KNO Burma) and the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) are attacking Tamu, Khampat and Kalay Townships in Sagaing Region.
The KIA has provided its allies with weapons and ammunition in order to control the entire Sagaing Region.
The KIA is waging these three operations with its allies and if they succeeded in the operations, they would be able to control the entire Sagaing Region.
As soon as the KIA has able to control the entire Sagaing Region, arms delivery route will be open and arms and ammunition can be easily delivered to Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States.
After that, the AA, CNF, CNDF and PDF will go on trying to liberate Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States. So, liberation battles for Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandalay Regions would emerge from the KIA's control strategy of the entire Saging Region.
However, at present, the KIA is facing with some barriers while implementing the strategy. The main barrier is the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA). Shanni nationaliteis are living in the middle and upper parts of Sagaing Region and the SNA is trying to make their regions peaceful and stable.
Especially, the SNA has been active in Tigyaing, Kawlin, Wuntho, Pinlebu, Katha, Shwe Pyi Aye, Tamu, Kalay, Banmauk, Indaw, Phaungbyin, Homalin, Mawlike and Thanang regions and is trying to restore Shanni State as well.
So, because the SNA is in the military operation area of the KIA, the battles became to take place between the SNA and the KIA/PDF joint forces. Because the SNA is the main barrier that might prevent the KIA's military operations so as not to be successful, the KIA would able to easily implement its operation if it could persuade the SNA.
If the KIA can't organize the SNA, it will find it difficult. So, it is important to the KIA to organize or fight to win the SNA. In the same way, if the Tatmadaw can organize the SNA, it can go one step further so that the KIA can't control Sagaing Region.
The KIA won't have enough finance for the arms and ammunition in order to wage operations that will control the entire Sagaing Region and to go on fighting in Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandaly Regions. If that's so, which force is behind the KIA?
SNA Army
Surely China will be behind the KIA because the KIA has helped build Meitei and Naga armed groups and is putting pressure on India to satisfy China. Now it will be able to put more pressure on India.
Moreover, if the KIA was able to liberate Rakhine and Chin States with the help of China, armed groups in Chin and Rakhine State might be able to disturb the India's Kaladan River Project and border region stability.
The situations presented above are about how important Sagaing Region is for armed forces that want to overthrow the Tatmadaw and how important the region is for the KIA, China and the Tatmadaw.
However, we all have to watch what will happen next.
