CNI News

9 August 2022

Strong exports and manufacturing are important to check the depreciation of MMK and appreciation of foreign currencies, economists told the CNI.

However, it is necessary to maintain stability to increase production in the country, an economist, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told the CNI.

He said, “ The economy of a country can be affected by various factors. Domestic production has been falling. Farmers can’t even work on their land. The main problem of the country is the instabilities. Only when a country is stable, will it be able to make economic progress. When production falls, so does the export. When a country falls in export, it will have to struggle. When a country is unstable, it is very difficult for it to do business. There is no prospect for growth. The country has to export more products for its foreign exchange incomes and to check the inflation. It is impossible to check inflation without production and output. Now, the government will show its deficits in its budgets. As the people refused to pay taxes, it cannot control the economy while earnings from export are very low. The only thing the government does is to print money from the CBM, pushing up the inflation rates. So, the MMK will depreciate further.”

The depreciation of MMK is the major consequence of the decline in production, lack of effective policies and adoption of wrong policies, Agriculture and Economic Consultant Ko Zaw Min Ning told the CNI.

He pointed out that correct policies must be adopted to remedy the issues of production, exports and imports.

Myanmar Kyat and US dollar notes.

“The fluctuation of dollar prices mainly affects the public and those who engage in production like farmers because Myanmar is a country that relies on imports. As the US$ exchange rate climbed to MMK 2,100, the prices of imported goods and foodstuffs will rise. Similarly, production costs of farmers will go up because they have to depend on imported fertilizers and seeds. So, the public and farmers will be hit first. So, there will be public unrest and the country will be unstable, according to theories,” he said.

As the public was affected by the appreciation of US$ in the international market and the depreciation of MMK at home, it was necessary to take effective action against speculators, he added.

Under the current political situation, it would take a long time for MMK and the economy to recover, another economist said.

“A currency can appreciate when the economy is in good shape and the public has trust in the currency. Currently, both the economy and the public trust are deteriorating. It is important to restore both of them. Priority must be given to the economy and the political situation must be stable. Only when the country is stable will the businesses be able to run their operations smoothly. Then, efforts must be exerted to build trust in MMK,” he said.

As the Central Bank of Myanmar raised the official exchange rate of US$ from MMK 1,850 per US$ to MMK 2,100 as of 5th August, market exchange rates are likely to rise further, according to economists and traders.

CNI News

9 August 2022

Peace talks between the SAC and some EAOs are not likely to take place in August, Col Khun Okkar, an EAO leader, told the CNI.

He said tensions have been running high after the executions of four activists including Ko Jimmy and Ko Phyo Zeyar Thaw but peace talks are likely to be held in September, when the ASEAN special envoy is scheduled to visit Myanmar.

Col Khun Okkar told the CNI, “I can’t say exactly. As tensions are rising after the executions of four activists, it is very difficult to hold peace talks at the moment. Peace talks are likely to take place in September before the ASEAN special envoy is scheduled to visit Myanmar. I don’t think negotiations will take place in August. They may invite EAOs during the envoy’s visit. We haven’t received any invitation so far. It was learnt that they are arranging the second rounds of talks but we don't know the details.”

Designating 2022 as the peace year, the SAC chairman vowed to end armed conflicts in the entire country and met with 10 EAOs delegations.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meets a delegation of the SSPP.

SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said that the second round of peace talks would be held and he discussed implementation of the multi-party democracy system and building a union based on democracy and federalism with EAOs delegation frankly.

The SAC has not announced the date for the second round of talks so far.

Leaders of signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement including the Restoration Council of Shan State/ Shan State Army, the New Mon State Party, the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, the Arakan Liberation Party, the Karen National Union/ Karen National Liberation Army- Peace Council and the Pao National Liberation Organization joined the peace talks with the SAC.

Leaders of non-signatories to the NCA including the United Wa State Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army (Mongla) and the Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army held peace talks with the SAC.

CNI News

9 August, 2022

According to the Myanmar Corn Industrial Association, there is currently more than 2.5 lakh corn balance with traders due to the delay caused by the price instability in the initial phase of corn exports.

During the same period in the previous years, only 100,000 tons remained. But this year, corn prices are unstable and there has been a decline in the purchase of corn from local feed mills and so there is more corn remaining,” said U Thant Zin Tun, vice chairman (4) of Myanmar Corn Industrial Associate to CNI News.

U Thant Zin Tun said, “There are some inventories we can make and also can’t make. That’s why I can only estimate. It’s mainly between 200,000 and 250,000. The number of bags might fall between 40,000,000 and 50,000,000. This year saw a period of unstable price in the beginning which led to a bit of a slow business.”

The market speed slows down due to these slight delays where there should have been actual sales between 5/6/7/8. If the sale rates were normal, there would have only 100,000 remaining bags. The rate was a little slow previously.
When the corn price was increased in the very beginning, the local food manufacturers also raised the corn price, so it is mandatory to use corn. I also used some other materials for substitution which might have led to a slight decline in the corn sales.”

“The export policy system plays a major role in corn exports. As a result of the government's policy change and restrictions, there are left-over corns like this,” said the traders.

A corn field

“Therefore, unless there is an easing of export policy from the national government regarding the remaining 200,000 tons of corn, the corns will continue to remain until October and the farmers can miss receiving reasonable prices,” said Dr. Phyo Ko Ko Naing, the Secretary General of the Myanmar Maize Industry Association to CNI.

“The main point is export policy. If corns are allowed to be sold in baht and the license is also issued, 100,000 tons can be exported from Myawaddy border every month. We still have some time left in August which means 100,000 tons can be sold during this month. If there is no policy leniency, the corns will be left over till October and November.

The new batch of corns is also coming into season since September. Since it is already underway, there is an excess of corns in the market and there is a possibility that the farmers may not get the production costs that they deserve. We are trying to coordinate with food factories as much as possible, but for now food factories are not yet in a position to buy aggressively," he said.

There has been a delay in corn exports last July due to the stipulation of the Central Bank of Myanmar specifying that all the export earnings made from trading corn and oilseeds must be deposited to the Bank at the rate of 1,850 kyats per dollar. However, on August 5, the policy has been shifted to depositing only 65% of the export earnings and one dollar was raised to 2100 kyats.

As a result of this increase, corn prices in the Yangon corn market rose slightly. It is reported that if there is more easing of policy from the government, the corn prices can even increase further, the exportation can be done faster and the famers can also do more cultivation.

Corn is a farm product and the exportation of which is the third largest source of national income for Myanmar and 3.2 million tons of corn are manufactured annually.

CNI News

8 August 2022

Troops of the Kachin Independence Army launched an attack on a frontline outpost of the Shanni Nationalities Army near Hsezin Village in Hpakant Township.

A large number of KIA troops raided the outpost of the SNA in Shwe Pyi Myint Village in Sagaing Region near the border of Kachin State and Sagaing Region, SNA spokesperson Col Sai Aung Main told the CNI.

Col Sai Aung Main said, “As far as I know, a large number of KIA troops raided the outpost at about 1 am on 8th August. We withdrew the troops from the post.  It was a small outport manned by 10 soldiers.”

It was learnt that the KIA and the PDF troops first attacked an outpost of the Tatmadaw in Hsezin Village and then raided the camp of the SNA.

Local resident Ko Nay Lin (The name has been changed.) said that the KIA took over the Tatmadaw camp and raided the SNA outpost in Shwe Pyi Myint Village.

KIA leader Ge. N’Ban La.

He said, “It was heard that the KIA took over the Tatmadaw camp, but we could not go and verify it. At first, we learnt that a fire broke out in the early morning. Then, fighting spread to the SNA outpost in Shwe Pyi Myint village a few minutes later. The village is located in Sagaing Region. The KIA and the SNA troops shot at one another from each side of the suspension bridge. I think it was a small outpost. “

The CNI contacted the KIA over the fighting but they were not able to give comments as they were holding a meeting.

Col Sai Aung Main told the CNI, “If they do not try to solve political issues through political means, we will have to fight them back to defend our people. Conflicts are caused by the plans of the KIA. The PDF would not be able to understand the situation. We can guess that the KIA has a plan to eliminate all Shanni ethnic groups. They will be held accountable for the consequences they created.”

The entrance to Hsezin Village. (Tun Lin Aung)

Fighting broke out between the Tatmadaw and the KIA in the Hsezin area and tensions were running high.

The SNA is active in Hkamti, Homalin, Phaung Pyin, Pinlebu, Wuntho and Banmauk in Sagaing Region and India-Myanmar border regions and Mohnyin and Moekaung in Kachin State.

The SNA is an ethnic armed organization trying to establish Shanni State which comprises Mawlike District, Kale District, Hkamti District, Katha District and Tamu District in Sagaing Region and Bamaw District, Myitkyina District, Mohnyin District and Moekaung in Kachin State.

CNI News 

8 August 2022 

To mark the 34th Anniversary of the 8888 pro-democracy movement, umbrella protests were staged in four venues in Yangon today, according to a statement. 

The umbrella protests were staged at Sule overpass, Bogyoke Market, the bank of Inya Lake and Hledan. 

“Anti-dictatorship protests were staged by using umbrellas marked with 8888. The entire people have been waging the anti-dictatorship struggle for 70 years from the 8888 movement to the Spring Revolution,” according to the statement issued by the Yangon Public Protest. 

Photo- Yangon public protests.

The statement also urged the revolutionary generations to root out the military that has grabbed the country together with the entire people. 

CNI News 

7 August 2022 

According to Myanmar economic analysts, the exchange rate of 1,850 kyats fixed by the Central Bank of Myanmar has been increased by 2,100 kyats, which may lead to an increase in foreign dollar exchange rates. 

In addition to the dollar price, other commodity prices will also rise, said U Ne Win Soe, in charge of the Ayeyar Trading Center, to CNI news agency.  

He said, “Increasing the dollar price was not good. In addition to not being able to control the dollar price, the difference between the external price and the internal price has now become so significant to the point that 1850 is now2400/2500 in the outside dollar price. There is a huge gap between them. Now it has been put up to 2100 which means the outside dollar price will also shoot up. Then the rest of the prices will go up. This is just another form of inflation,” he said. 

All the export earnings from exportation originally had to be exchanged with the exchange rate set by the Central Bank. However, starting from August 5, only 65% of the export earnings were made mandatory to be exchanged in Myanmar Kyat.

 while seeing Myanmar Central Bank (GETTY IMAGES)

However, A Burmese economic analyst, who did not want to be named for security reasons, told CNI that since there has been no announcement how to manage the remaining 35% and how it can be done, we must monitor it and that the dollar price in the market could fluctuate based on the process to allow the issuance of 35 percent. 

He said, "65 percent has to be allocated for the import that they specified. The remaining 35 percent can be sold to an importer of your choice. But the statement did not say what the 35 percent would be allowed to do. Do you have to keep the 35 percent in the bank without transferring it immediately? Do they let us keep it in the bank and transfer the account? Or do they allow cash dollars? The follow up did not clear anything.

What will hit the market depends on it. That 35 percent is not allowed to be cashed out, but if the importer is allowed to trade, then the importer does not have to look for it in the outside market anymore. The search in the market will decrease. If the importer's demand in the foreign market has decreased, the dollar price will fall again.

 But that's not the case, if the dollar is allowed to be issued, the issued dollar will go to the market and the dollar price in the market will fall. These are from the declination point of view. Even the central bank went up and down from 1850 to 2100. There is a question whether the market will follow or not," he said. 

U Thant Zin Tun, a corn trader, told CNI News that since the Central Bank has changed the set rate from 1,850 kyats to 2,100 kyats per dollar, exporters will increase the price when they buy goods from farmers.

 while seeing an export and import business at the port (AFP)

U Thant Zin Tun said, "I think that the dollar price, which is currently rising, may fall again from the huge gap between 1850 and the outside dollar price. And the exportation has also become consistent with the dollar price which means we can get it at a slightly higher price in our local range. 

Then, only 65% can be deposited. Since it is only 35%, we can see this as good. We used to pay 100% and sell it again. That system has now shifted and now only 65% can be imported. It’s only 35% from exportation which gives us discretion for what we want to import.

 In this way, it is said to be good since we can import the important things now such as medicine from other countries.

 The Central Bank of Myanmar controls foreign currency but it cannot sell the dollar which is much-needed in the market, leading to the emergence of dollar black markets. In addition, it has been reported that medicine, food, consumer goods, agricultural equipment, raw materials, and imported goods purchased with dollar are now on the increase. 

The current foreign exchange rate in the foreign market is from more than 2500 to 2800 Burmese dollars for 1 US dollar. Businessmen are also speculating that $1 may rise to 3000 kyats. However, the financial market experts have explained that their process of trading outside is actually a form of buying and selling as they like.

CNI News

7 August 2022

Urging ethnic armed groups to resolve ethnic right issues at parliament raised false hopes, Rakhine Politician U Pe Than told the CNI.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing told an SSPP delegation on 4th August that the parliament was the highest political body in a democracy and ethnic groups were required to participate more in the parliament to demand their rights in accordance with the law.

U Pe Than told the CNI, “Even during the tenure of the National League for Democracy, a so-called democratic party, the parliament did not function properly. Everything was decided by the government. Every motion tabled by ethnic parties was rejected or neglected and budget allocations for ethnic states were meagre. Urging EAOs to discuss the issue of ethnic rights at the parliament during the terms of a semi-military government that will emerge from the proportional representation system raises false hopes. When a government that is clinging to the military dictatorship is in power, there is no way to guarantee ethnic rights. Even if they are willing to do so, they will give minor rights to ethnic peoples.” 

At the same time, the upcoming parliament would not be supported or recognized by the people, he added.

The union parliament in progress in March, 2006.

One of EAO leaders, Col Khun Okkar of the PNLO told the CNI that reserving 25 percent of seats at the parliament for the military was against the principle of democracy and ethnic rights could not be guaranteed under such circumstances.

Col Khun Okkar said, “Frankly speaking, it can be said that parliaments under successive governments including during the term of U Nu, U Ne Win and U Thein Sein were not parliaments under democracy. So, reserving 25 percnet of seats at the parliament for the military is completely contrary to democratic principles. At the same time, the remaining 75 percent of the seats are overwhelmed by the winning influential party. As a result, ethnis parties and their representatives have no say in the parliament. So, there is no way to demand to ethnic rights in the parliament. There are no rights for ethnic groups under the 2008 constitution.”

However, it was learnt that some leaders of ethnic armed groups are serving as candidates, representatives and the speaker of the parliament.

As a result, ethnic leaders felt that their rights were restricted at the parliament, where the powerful took upperhand and opted for armed struggle.

CNI News

7 August, 2022

By profiting from uploading obscene photos and videos that tarnish the venerable Burnese culture and dignity, Thinzar Wint Kyaw and Nan Mwe San were arrested and sued with the case filed under Section 33 (a) of the Telecommunications Law, the news released by SAC from MRTV Television.

The press release stated that in August 2021, Thinzar Wint Kyaw, using the connection of a sex-worker model Shin Yoon Myat, opened an account under the name of Thinzar Wint Kyaw to upload pornographic photos and videos that are commissioned for a pornographic website called Exantria, a website executively operated by Mr. Raphael who lives in America. The news also stated that these sexually suggestive photos and videos have been posted in the website.

MRTV television said, “We have found out that starting from August 20, 2021, Thinzar Wint Kyaw has made money off of uploading X-rated material and the received commission fee was split: 25% from the website and 75% from the poster.

Thinzar Wint Kyaw

Similarly, in September, 2020, Nan Mwe San, with the connection of Ms Kumar whose line of work is the trade of beauty products, is stated to have become acquainted with Exantria Website in-charge person, Mr Raphael.

Then, starting from September 2020, she has reportedly posted pornographic material on the Only Fan website run by Mr. Raphael and is said to have sent X-rated photos and video files to Exantria Website for publication with the reconnection of Mr Raphael starting from January 2021. And the received pay was allocated as 70% for the poster and 30% for the website.

Due to these actions affecting Burmese culture and dignity as well as entailing the disdain towards Burmese women in the eyes of the world, Thinzar Wint Kyaw and Nan Mwe San were sued under Section 33 (a) of the Telecommunications Act.

Nan Mwe San

Correspondingly, SAC announced on MRTV television that those who are engaging in actions that are seen as an affront to the honor and dignity of Burmese women will be identified and effectively taken a lawful action against.

Section 33(a) of the Electronic Communications Act is stipulated as doing any acts that can be perceived as an offense towards national security, law enforcement and territorial peace, ethnic unity, national economy or national culture. Anyone convicted under Article 33 (a) shall be imprisoned for a minimum of 7 years to a maximum of 15 years. It is stipulated that fines can also be imposed.

 CNI News 

6 August 2022 

There was talk in the international community of expelling Myanmar from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by adopting a new approach if the five-point consensus of the association to solve the Myanmar political crisis fails to work. 

However, political observers at home and in the diaspora community said that it was unlikely for the ASEAN to expel Myanmar from the regional body. 

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based political observer, told the CNI, “The ASEAN is not likely to expel Myanmar from their association. It was learnt that a Myanmar diplomat attended the foreign ministers meeting of the ASEAN although Myanmar was not officially invited. So, a paragraph had to be dropped from the joint communique because of the protest of the diplomat. However, it is unlikely that the ASEAN will expel Myanmar from the regional body because it needs to build the regional economic forum into an entire supply chain. It may take action against or apply pressure on the junta.

US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said in his interview with the VOS Burmese that the ASEAN was required to review the situation and take action against Myanmar by suspending its membership. 

US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken at the ASEAN meeting.

He said, “Well, I think it has to take account of the fact that the regime has refused to implement the five-point consensus and draw whatever conclusions it must from that. I think making sure, right now, that there is nonpolitical representation in ASEAN is exactly the right step. But if this continues, I think ASEAN has to look at what that means, including suspension of Myanmar.”

 Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw added that nowadays, the US can no longer dictate what it wants to other countries. 

The ASEAN recently decided not to invite the SAC to its foreign ministers' meetings and summits and to allow it to send a non-political diplomatic representative. 

Prak Sokhonn, the Cambodian foreign minister and ASEAN special envoy, said that Myanmar generals were required to show progress and the ASEAN agreed that without future progress, its position on Myanmar would have to be reconsidered.

 Political Analyst U Ye Tun said that it was possible for the ASEAN to expel Myanmar from the regional body if they could reach a consensus on the issue. 

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Special Envoy Prak Sokhonn.

U Ye Tun told the CNI, “According to the ASEAN Charter, important decisions are made by consensus. So, if all member states agree to expel Myanmar, it is possible to do so. If the SAC decides to suspend membership or leave the regional body because it did not invite them to its meetings, the ASEAN will also have to expel Myanmar.”

 SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said in his speech on 1st August, 2022 that Myanmar was not able to implement the five-point consensus of the ASEAN due to instabilities and might be able to do so in the future. 

The five-point consensus includes ending violence, release of political prisoners, dialogues with all stakeholders, providing humanitarian assistance and appointment of a special envoy to mediate political dialogues.

 ASEAN Special Envoy Prak Sokhonn visited Myanmar twice but failed to make progress to help overcome Myanmar political crisis. It was learnt that the SAC promised to allow the special envoy to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on his third visit to Myanmar in September-October.