CNI Interview

5 August 2022

The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and Tatmadaw are in military tension in Mine Shu, Southern Shan State.

During this period of military tension, on the other hand, General Min Aung Hlaing, the head leader of Tatmadaw, and the delegation led by SSPP's vice chairperson-1 Sao Khur Tai who is also the commander-in-chief, met on August 4 and discussed peace process.

At the same time, due to the news release of the death sentence of Ko Jimmy, Ko Phyo Zayar Thaw, Ko Hla Myo Aung and Ko Aung Thura Zaw on July 25, the SAC is now facing the condemnation from both domestic and international community.

CNI has interviewed Sai Leik, General Secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) regarding those situations.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Vice Chairman of SSPP (1) while meeting with Than Khe Than

Q ။ ။ I would like to know Uncle Sai Lake’s opinion on what should do next concerning being asked to withdraw the SSPP army in Mine Shu.

A ။ ။ The Mine Shu case is not the one which just started. It has been happening since June. The main thing is that if I’m not mistaken, the Myanmar military is dissatisfied with the good relation of the SSPP and the UWSA. Mainly, with the UWSA and SSPP troops combined together, Pin Laoung, Southern Shan State then Pha Lie Toe, next Mine Pyin Toe, from there Kyaukgu and InTaw, those Kyaukgu InTaw belongs to YatSawk area.

So, as it becomes closer to their security line, they were worried and asked the 3 army camps from Mine Shu to move, this is what I understand. In the end, even if the 3 army camps there do not move and the camps around Salin ridge, the west side of this Pin Laoung, is withdrawn, I suppose the Myanmar military steps back.

Q ။ ။ Yes, sir. From the military side, they said this year is their year of peace. First of all, I saw that SSPP is in the list to participate in their peace talks. When this case happened, SSPP didn’t attend. Now there will be the second time soon. So, what do you think military should ease?

A ။ ။ Although the military said this year is their year of peace, he does not show any desire for peace with the organizations that are revolting and resisting him. There are no activities for peace at all from their side. Also, they said that they will liaise for peace with which group and not at all with which group.

And his stand on the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) is not sane. So, what happens is that they called to discuss, but do not care about the other side’s talks and points of views. They just focused only on and talked about what they want. Even in the media, they disclose false and misleading information. There are some incorrect information they revealed which the EAOs actually didn’t say. For example, EAOs support 2023 election.

Jimmy, If you grow up, to be beautiful, While seeing Ko Aung Thu Ra Zaw

In truth, there might not be that kind of discussion. This shows that the military’s position is not proper. And, if they truly want to build peace, they definitely should declare a ceasefire nationwide with the sincere intentions. The last thing is that concerning the ASEAN’s 5-Point Consensus, we consider that he has not exactly followed them.

Thus, with the EAOs, we see that he does not have honest intentions, followed by the conclusion that it is impossible to build peace.

Q ။ ။ This 2022 is designated as the year of peace. He declared NUG and PDFs as terrorists. If he truly wants peace, should these be eased as he is now mostly confronting with PDFs?

A ။ ။ It is absolutely right that he needs to ease. Whether it is related to PDF of NUG or EAOs, he should let the individuals and organizations recognized by the international community intercede and testify honestly and should offer peace with sincere purpose. If it is not like that and treated the citizens as enemies, arrested, tortured and like the death penalty imposed on political prisoners, if they don’t ease those and apologize for what have been done, it would be totally impossible for both sides to reconcile.

Q ။ ။ Yes. Now the ones that have been sentenced to death are politicians. As they are democracy activists, isn’t this death sentence an incendiary act to the current peace matters and political issues they are working? Isn’t the hatred growing big?

A ။ ။ To be blunt, I suppose he just crushed the hope which was there. In the announcement of the special representative of Cambodia, they said they have found a way to meet and discuss with Daw Aung San Su Kyi.
As it was heard that this side had given the green light for having discussions, most of the people thought there would have been some peace-related matters. He broke that kind of hope with this death penalty case. So, the odds for peace talks or political talks have almost gone. I see that this wound will have to be healed at least 2 or 3 years.

Q ။ ။ What do you think is the military’s attitude on diplomacy? The British Ambassador was expelled a few days ago, so he does not maintain relations with other countries and is in contact with Russia in terms of the security and military and with China in terms of the business. Thus, do you think he will just communicate with these two countries like a closed-door policy?

A ။ ။ He only has China and Russia to rely on. And even between China and Russia, it is seen that he has to deal with them depending on the sectors. As you said, when it comes to business, he has to be in contact with China and regarding the arms supply, he has to depend on Russia more.
But I don’t think he can go long-term with that plan. He has no spare cash. As there is no more foreign currency, it is not possible for the long term. Like they have said at the beginning when they took power, they think they can just have relations with a small number of countries. I see it the copy of the style used by NaWaTa in 1988-1989. But the situation back then was not like today.

Back then, people just talked about democracy, now is the revolution duration with the slogan of Federal Democracy and the fall of the military dictatorship. The situation is no loger the same. Thus, if his handling method just continues as before, the country will only be destroyed. They are also going to have to suffer worse than this. I don’t see anything good in the long run.

ASEAN Special Representative Prat So Khun and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

Q ။ ။ As for the military, do you think holding talks with Daw Aung San Su Kyi and the upcoming elections which he will hold will be his political exit?

A ။ ။ I see that this is not something we can calculate exactly. Most of the PDFs now are not in the position to accept the matter of reconciliation. They are expecting more than that. So, I suppose there will not be a way out with just holding the election in 2023.

Q ။ ။ Coming back to the SSPP case, SSPP is a Shan army. As the Shan army is told to not stay there and just stay here, what will Shan people’s opinions be on those matters?

A ။ ။ In fact, if the public can speak openly and freely, they will just want to have their army in their own state. There is no benefit of having the army that does not concern with their state. They have already experienced for 4,5,60 years. Everybody knows that the army coming from another state will not do anything beneficial for their state.

So, it is sure that Shan state will also want to take responsibility for its own security in line with Shan State’s army. The same goes for other states. So, even if giving orders, threatening and hegemony like the way they used in the past, will be continued to apply, we now see that it will not work in the long term.

Q ။ ။ Yes. Now, according to the news reports in the Shan state area, the military has been increasing its strength. This SSPP also looks like they are ready too. So, if there is war between them, how much suffering will the citizens face?
A ။ ။ The people of Shan state have already nearly-adapted to the war. To be clear, when the rainy season comes every year, they have to suffer the effects of war for many years. There is nothing worse for him than this. Even if there is not war with the Myanmar military, there still is the battle with Shans themselves or with the ethnic groups each other, thus still they need to flee the war area.

NSCA and SSPP delegation

They often have to face the wars. So, even if there is the war with the Myanmar military now, the people cannot do anything but to avoid it as usual. They have no choice. The best is that there is no war and if it can be done in a negotiated way, then the public will be relieved.

Q ။ ။ Yes. With the case of SSPP camp being asked to be moved and the military’s year of peace, what do you want to say as the final remark?

A ။ ။ As I said earlier, the army camps around this Salin ridge are close to their army based in Ba Htoo, Yak Sauk, and this also is the border of Pa-O National Army (PNO), and it is also the old place of RCSS.

Therefore, as they want to get back these areas, I consider they ask us to move to Mine Shu. However, as SSPP who has already owned its place, it is something to consider if they can comply with that. According to what SSPP spokesperson disclosed, if there is a gunshot, it will not just be in one place, they will blow up all of their dominions, thus this is not the situation that anyone from both sides will give up on.

If it is approached in the violent and forceful way, the gunshots may explode, wars can happen, those are unavoidable. If they deliberately continue knowing the consequences, I just would like to consider it as short-sighted.