CNI News
May 21, 2026
Military and political analysts are currently evaluating whether the armed conflict in Myanmar could stabilize if peace talks with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) prove successful.
In addition to Kachin State, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has been attacking the Myanmar military by providing weapons and ammunition to various armed organizations operating in Sagaing Region, Magway Region, Chin State, northern Shan State, and Rakhine State.
Furthermore, the KIA is striving to liberate Myanmar’s northwestern corridor (Kachin-Sagaing-Chin-Rakhine) and to establish control over Namhkam, Kutkai, and Hsenwi in northern Shan State as a "Kachin Sub-State."
Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Lai (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party, told CNI News Agency that if peace can be achieved with the KIA in Myanmar's ongoing armed conflict, more than half of the country could become peaceful.
KIA leader Lieut-Gen Gun Maw pictured with former Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Sun Guoxiang.
He stated: "If peace negotiations with the KIA are resolved, more than half of Myanmar will become peaceful. Although it could stabilize after settling matters with the KIA, I foresee that the threat of thieves and dacoits (bandits) might temporarily increase. As it stands, war has been raging in our country for many years, and the people have suffered tremendously. I want us to move forward solely through a peaceful path. Furthermore, we have now become the poorest country among the 11 ASEAN nations. For this reason, I think it would be beneficial if both the armed organizations and the governments seek solutions through a peaceful path, holding discussions and moving forward upon reaching an agreement. Looking at the faces of our own citizens in Myanmar, I would like to say that we urgently need to implement peace quickly."
KIA leader Lieut-Gen Gun Maw stated that the KIA has been engaging in talks with Chinese representatives and that they would consider meeting for discussions if the Myanmar military accepts the National Unity Government (NUG).
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News Agency that while peace talks are likely to emerge in Myanmar, it remains uncertain whether talks specifically between the KIA and the Myanmar military will materialize, noting that the KIA has maintained they will negotiate only if the NUG is included.
Leaders from various armed organizations.
She stated: "It looks like peace talks will likely happen. However, whether it will happen with the KIA, I cannot say. When China came and urged the KIA to negotiate recently, I heard the KIA responded that they would negotiate if it includes the NUG and others as a collective bloc. Therefore, individual one-on-one talks might not happen. But who knows, all-inclusive dialogues might potentially take place."
Currently, clashes are occurring between the Myanmar military and combined KIA-PDF forces in areas such as Bhamo, Waingmaw, Hpakant, and Indawgyi within Kachin State, while the Myanmar military is preparing operations to regain control of Panwa, Chibwe, and Kanpiketi.
The transitional government led by President Min Aung Hlaing has extended an invitation to both NCA-signatory and non-signatory armed groups to engage in peace talks, setting a deadline of July 31, 2026.
