CNI News

May 12, 2026

In the current political and military landscape under the government led by President Min Aung Hlaing, military and political analysts are questioning whether effectively handling the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) would simultaneously allow for the control of the AA (Arakan Army).

Analysts point out that the KIA is striving for liberation across the northwestern regions of Myanmar, including Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State. Furthermore, because the KIA and AA are staunch military allies built on shared political objectives, experts are weighing whether the AA can be contained simply by controlling the KIA.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that while controlling the KIA might have a partial impact on cutting off the AA, it would not lead to total control, and that each group must be handled individually.

"The idea that the government can control the AA just by handling the KIA sounds plausible, but it isn’t entirely true. This perspective looks at it only from a logistics and supply chain side. In reality, they are separate. You have to resolve the AA issue independently. The assumption that if the KIA falls, the AA falls, is wrong. It should be a 'Split Type' approach—dealing with them separately.

Leaders of the Arakan Army (AA).

Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) should never be allowed to negotiate as a collective bloc. Former President U Thein Sein fell into a trap by allowing all-inclusive group negotiations because the KIA pushed for it. We must go with a 'Split' strategy. Although they are linked through Chin State and Upper Sagaing, the KIA and AA are very different in terms of history and tradition. The AA is primarily Buddhist-based, while the KIA is Baptist. Their cultures are distinct. While stabilizing the KIA might partially impact the AA by cutting off certain links, they are not a single entity. There are specific ways to handle them individually."

The Arakan Army (AA) was formed in April 2009. At the start of its revolution, it established a foothold in Paletwa Township, Chin State, before penetrating into Rakhine State. Currently, the AA operates independently in Rakhine and is also a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA-AA-TNLA) active in Northern Shan State. Additionally, the AA collaborates with local armed groups in Sagaing, Magway, and Ayeyarwady Regions, as well as Chin State.

Following a temporary ceasefire in November 2022, fighting resumed between the Myanmar military and the AA in November 2023, and military tensions remain high to this day.

Dr. Kyaw Swe, a Pyithu Hluttaw representative from the National Unity Party (NUP), suggested to CNI that because the AA relies heavily on the KIA for arms and ammunition, controlling the KIA could significantly weaken the AA.

KIA officials with former Chinese Special Envoy Sun Guoxiang.

"The AA uses weapons almost entirely provided by the KIA. From training grounds to officer-level training, the KIA provides it all. Therefore, if the KIA can be properly controlled, the AA’s strength will diminish, and they might cooperate with the government again. Currently, the AA feels empowered because of KIA supplies, which is why they are demanding a 'Confederation' status. If the KIA is restrained, the AA will no longer be a major factor to worry about.

China already holds the specific methods needed to control the KIA to achieve G-to-G (Government to Government) results. If we follow those methods precisely, it will be good for Myanmar. The KIA’s leverage over us will decrease, and as their pressure fades, so will the AA’s strength. We believe this is the path toward long-term peace in Myanmar."

AA Commander-in-Chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing has previously stated that they will fight for a status for the Rakhine people that is not lower than a "Confederation."

During the 2021 "Spring Revolution" period, the KIA grew even stronger than before, providing arms, ammunition, military training, and sanctuary to revolutionary forces, while also supporting joint operations in Sagaing Region and Kachin State.