CNI News

March 31, 2026

Political analyst Dr. An Kaw La told CNI News that the State will have to put in an immense effort if it intends to resolve the conflict with the Arakan Army (AA) through military means.

According to the current situation, Ayeyarwady Region, western Bago Region, and western Magway Region are areas connected to the AA's influence. Dr. An Kaw La noted that military columns are active in these regions, including Rakhine, and in this landscape, the Pathein-Monywa Highway has become strategically vital.

He stated: "There are two political goals at play: a Sovereign State and a Sub-autonomy State. A Sovereign State model is like when the IRA (Irish Republican Army) attacked Belfast in Northern Ireland to negotiate politically with Britain—that was Northern Ireland implementing a Sovereign State goal. Others are autonomous states, like the Mindanao issue in the Philippines or the eight northeastern states of India; those are examples of implementing autonomous states as political results in peace processes.

Currently, the AA is conducting operations in the capital, Sittwe, and the vital town of Kyaukphyu. Furthermore, they are attacking areas near the KaPaSa (Defense Industry) factories in western Bago and western Magway. There are also military columns pushed as far as Pathein in Ayeyarwady. Looking at this, we see the AA’s declared political goal—a Sovereign State-style goal moving toward a Confederation. Therefore, we observe that the State will have to strive tremendously to resolve this political conflict via military means."

A junction somewhere in Rakhine State.

Following a ceasefire in November 2022, fighting between the Arakan Army and the Myanmar Military resumed in November 2023 and continues to this day.

Amidst these battles, the AA now controls most townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa, with the exception of three towns: Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung.

Currently, the AA operates independently within Rakhine State while also functioning as a member of the Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State. Additionally, they are conducting joint military operations with Kachin and Chin armed groups, as well as expanding their military reach alongside "Spring Revolution" forces.

U Myo Kyaw, spokesperson for the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), told CNI News that regardless of the military trajectory between the AA and the Myanmar Military, a political agreement must eventually be reached at the negotiating table, and demands will be determined by military advantage.

AA Leader General Tun Myat Naing.

He said: "The enemy has always tried to resolve this. It didn't just start in 2026; they’ve tried to resolve it since the beginning. But the situation has gradually reached this point. They will try to resolve it, but whether it is easy or not depends on the actual occurrences across the entire country and how all these wars are interconnected. No matter how much things move militarily, one day an agreement must be sought at a political table. However, if one has the military upper hand, they can speak firmly and decide their demands at the table. To put it simply, an agreement is often decided in a way that favors the victors."

General Twan Mrat Naing(Tun Myat Naing), Commander-in-Chief of the Arakan Army (AA), has previously declared that the Rakhine people will fight to achieve a status no lower than a Confederation.

On the other hand, sources close to the matter stated that the AA has accepted a proposal from China to hold peace talks with the government following a meeting between the AA and Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun in China.