CNI News
9 December 2025
There are ongoing analyses among military and political observers regarding what other strategic objectives the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) may have, in addition to seizing and controlling towns inside the Sagaing Region.
Currently, the KIA has expanded and operated across northern Shan State, Kachin State, and into the Sagaing Region, allowing it to stand as one of the strongest ethnic armed organizations.
Recently, KIA–PDF forces have taken control of Banmauk, Pinlebu, Indaw, Shwe Pyi Aye, and Khanpat townships in the Sagaing Region. From these positions, they are in a condition to continue launching attacks on Hkamti, Kawlin, Phaung Pyin, Tamu, and Kalay towns.
Analysts point out that if KIA can take control of Hkamti, it will effectively control the entire upper Sagaing Region. If it succeeds in taking Kawlin, it will likely attempt to expand control over Kalay, Tamu, and Kantbalu.
Map showing connected territories from Sagaing Region
According to U Khun Sai, a peace process expert, if KIA gains full control over the Sagaing Region, it will not stop there — because gaining such control would allow KIA to access neighboring countries through Chin and Rakhine States, facilitating both trade and diplomatic outreach with neighboring and Western countries.
He said to CNI News:“If they can control the Sagaing Region, they will get closer to India. From Sagaing, through Chin and Rakhine, they would gain opportunities for international trade and external relations, which would benefit them. Kachin, like Shan, is a landlocked state. So I don’t think the KIA will stop even after securing Sagaing Region. Even if they don’t continue capturing more towns militarily, they will still push to expand their influence, build relationships, and project power.KIA is not only careful and strategic in politics; they are also skilled in diplomacy. If they maintain relations with China on one side and engage India, the U.S., and other countries on the other side, their position becomes much stronger.Instead of being jealous of the Kachin, we should learn from their methods.”
The KIA has been providing military training, weapons, and ammunition to revolutionary forces in the Sagaing Region that border Kachin State. They have jointly conducted operations, captured towns, and expanded control across Kachin State and the Sagaing Region.
Towns in Sagaing Region captured by the KIA
Following the military coup of February 1, 2021, the KIA strengthened its forces and expanded its controlled territories far beyond previous levels.
The Sagaing Region has two border exits into India: The Tamu–Moreh crossing The Pansawng (Naga area) crossing, To secure the Tamu–Moreh corridor, KIA has been providing weapons and ammunition to the Kuki and PDF forces.
For the Pansawng (Naga) corridor, KIA has been working with NSCN-K/YA and NSCN-K/AM through recruitment and by supplying arms to ENDA/ENNO (Eastern Naga Defence Army) to implement its strategy.
A political analyst told CNI News that if any ethnic armed group captures territories beyond those designated under the 2008 Constitution and attempts to establish them as its own administrative region or state, inter-ethnic conflict could emerge — as seen in the case of the TNLA.
Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) seen
He stated:“When ethnic armed groups capture territories and then declare them as their own state or region, TNLA’s experience can repeat itself — resulting in inter-ethnic conflict.The 2008 Constitution already lists recognized ethnic territories such as Kokang, Pa-O, Kachin, etc. The majority of people in Myanmar accept these official designations.So if any group tries to expand and claim new territory, making the same mistake as the TNLA, serious conflict between groups can emerge.AA, MNDAA, and TNLA do not explicitly promote federalism; they prefer a model similar to the Wa — controlling their own territory independently as a single-party armed administration.KIA previously accepted federalism and participated in NCA negotiations. But later, they withdrew. After Operation 1027 and subsequent political and military developments, KIA’s positions may change again.If they firmly commit to federalism, negotiating with the NUG and PDFs becomes much easier, with fewer major obstacles.”
According to analysts, the primary barrier preventing the KIA from fully controlling the entire Sagaing Region is the presence of the Shanni people and the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA).
If KIA were to take over all of Sagaing Region, its power would surpass its current strength significantly. Analysts are watching closely to see whether the KIA’s strategies and operations will allow it to practically achieve full control over the region.
