CNI News
6 December 2025
Military and political analysts say that because the National League for Democracy (NLD) will not be participating in the upcoming multi-party democratic general election, there is little chance that the ongoing armed conflicts will see any significant change.
The NLD, which has traditionally won the majority of votes in Myanmar elections, is not registered as a political party in the election scheduled to begin on December 28, 2025.
A political analyst told CNI News that the absence of the NLD in the election is a key reason why no major shift can be expected in the current armed conflicts.
He said:“Not allowing—or not having—the NLD in the election is the main reason why the ongoing armed clashes will not see significant change.There is one thing though. After the election, will they allow the NLD to participate in a by-election like during President Thein Sein’s administration? If that happens, then we could hope for something similar to what occurred under Thein Sein’s government.But it’s doubtful whether such a situation will return. Why? Because future leaders like Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and USDP Chairman U Khin Yi are not as flexible as U Thein Sein. And I don’t think they will engage actively in reforms like U Thein Sein did. If they don’t take that approach, such circumstances will not easily occur.If the NLD were gradually allowed to participate again in elections in areas where PDFs and the NUG are active, and if they regained some parliamentary seats, then expectations would rise that things might improve—just like during the by-election period under Thein Sein’s administration.”
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Former KNU Chairman
On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) removed the NLD government led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, claiming that disputes over voter lists from the 2020 general election were unresolved, and subsequently detained Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U Win Myint.
In addition, key founding members and senior leaders of the NLD—patron U Tin Oo, vice-chair Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, and spokesperson for public relations and communications Monywa Aung Shin—have since passed away.
Although several political detainees have recently been granted amnesty, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has not yet been released, leading some military and political observers to speculate that she might be freed after the election.
U Khun Sai, who works in peace processes, told CNI News that in a political landscape where Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is absent, revolutionary forces could either grow stronger or experience a decline in morale.
Armed resistance groups
He said:“Right now, what we see across the country cannot yet be described as a full-scale uprising, even though many think it is.One reason it isn’t is because many people still hold hopes for Daw Su. Because of that, they aren’t fully participating.However, if Daw Su was no more or if the NLD completely ceased to exist, our revolutionary forces could grow even stronger. On the other hand, some argue that without Daw Su, the morale of those fighting under her influence could fall sharply.We will have to wait and see which of these two possibilities becomes reality.”
Military and political analysts also say that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is someone who ought to be included in discussions and negotiations aimed at resolving Myanmar’s political crisis and armed conflicts.
