CNI News
26 November 2025
The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) may launch offensives against any area controlled by the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State, said U Myo Kyaw of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) in an interview with CNI News.
He stated that attacks are particularly possible in areas around Kyaukphyu.
“This will likely depend on the overall situation of the whole country. In our country, when there is a ceasefire on one front, the military tends to launch offensives on another. For example, when there is a ceasefire with the Kachin, they attack the Karen. Likewise, if ceasefires occur in the eastern part of the country, large offensives may take place in the western front. In Rakhine, they can attack any area. More than fighting soldiers, they rely on military superiority—airstrikes, naval attacks, and long-range heavy artillery. These can destroy civilians and basic infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, and homes. Ceremonies, festivals, or public gatherings could also become targets. So any area could be affected. It could be in Rathedaung, in Ponnagyun, or in Minbya. Especially around Kyaukphyu. In Gwa, Taungoke—anywhere,” he said.
Myanmar Tatmadaw female soldiers
Currently, after halting fighting with the TNLA in northern Shan State, the Myanmar military has been conducting airstrikes on AA-controlled areas of Rakhine State, with intense clashes reported in Kyaukphyu.
Military and political analysts note that the Myanmar military may attempt a ground offensive into Rakhine State via Chin State.
Since late October, military columns from the southern part of Kalay in Sagaing Region advanced—one column moving from Webula toward Falam, and another from Tedim, passing through Thaingngin Village toward the Tedim-Falam border.
In early November, the Myanmar military captured strategic locations on the Kalay–Tedim road, including Kanedi Mountain and Thaingngin Village, an entry point into Chin State. However, Kanedi Mountain was recaptured by Chin resistance forces on November 18.
Map of Rakhine State (Photo – Myanmar Now)
Even so, U Myo Kyaw stated that it is unlikely the Myanmar military can advance into Rakhine from the Chin side.
“That’s very unlikely. It would be extremely difficult for them to retake those areas. The terrain is difficult, and from a military strategy perspective, it’s not easy for them to push back in after retreating. On top of that, Chin resistance forces in that area still hold substantial strength. So an advance from that side would be very difficult,” he said.
Military and political analysts assess that the Myanmar military is preparing to recapture some of the townships currently controlled by the Arakan Army.
Reports indicate that in the remaining towns of Rakhine—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—the military is reinforcing troop numbers and heavy weapons via waterways.
