CNI News
12 November 2025
There are ongoing discussions and analyses among military and political observers regarding who gained political advantage by leaning on the forces of the Spring Revolution.
Following the political changes in 2021, the emerging People's Defense Forces (PDFs) have been cooperating with Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) to fight the Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw).
While these EAO-PDF joint forces were able to seize territories in their battles, subsequent negotiations mediated by China resulted in agreements only between the Tatmadaw and the EAOs, with the seized towns being handed back.
U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI that EAOs gained a large number of armed forces from the PDFs. He suggested that based on the actual loss of forces and damages suffered in these developments, one can see whether the EAOs or the PDFs gained the political upper hand.
Chin Brotherhood (CB) and NUG leaders meet
He stated: "This is because the EAOs didn't have this level of activity before. Simply put, they gained a considerable number of fighting forces—forces that would carry out armed activities—from the PDFs. Consequently, in the end, the PDFs did not get what they wanted. At the same time, their ability to maneuver became very difficult. Our analysis is that the EAOs gained the advantage. The PDFs no longer have much capacity to act. Furthermore, we are seeing how well their cooperation is or isn't working. Therefore, if you look at who truly lost forces and how much damage they suffered, it's clear. Based on that, everyone can see whether the EAOs or the PDFs gained the advantage."
Following a meeting between the TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army) and the Tatmadaw on October 27 and 28, 2025, the TNLA announced a ceasefire agreement and stated they would withdraw from Mogok and Momeik townships.
Following this announcement, the military situation on the Shan-Mandalay border has become complicated, with the MDY-PDF (Mandalay PDF) publicly stating that they will not easily relinquish the control areas seized during the Spring Revolution.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an analyst of China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI that since the main priority for EAOs is the liberation of their respective regions, states, and ethnic groups, it seems their efforts were more focused on securing their territories when striking political agreements.
However, she added that she believes most of the comrades of the Spring Revolution will understand the difficulties faced by the Ethnic Armed Organizations.
Chin Brotherhood (CB) and KIA leader Deputy General Gun Maw meet.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw said: "All the Ethnic Armed Organizations are geographically contiguous with China. So, rather than pressure from China, it's more like China offering incentives. For example, if they cease fire, they will open the border gates. China has opened up a lot of economic movement for groups like the MNDAA. That's why the MNDAA has been able to properly rebuild their old territories. So, it's not that the ethnic organizations don't have good will towards Myanmar. But their main priority is the liberation of their region, their state, or their ethnic group, rather than the entire country. Therefore, I think they were more inclined to settle for this and focus on stabilizing and strengthening their own territories. The PDFs also understand this. I think most of the comrades from the Spring Revolution understand the difficulties and predicaments of the ethnic groups, so there will be mutual understanding. Saying this doesn't mean everything is smooth. There might be minor conflicts and friction."
Military and political observers had speculated that since the Kokang Army (MNDAA) handed back Lashio town to the Myanmar Military out of the towns seized during Operation 1027, other towns might also have to be returned.
Mogok and Momeik townships were seized by the TNLA and its allies in July 2024. News is now circulating that, a little over a year later, the TNLA has reached an agreement with the Myanmar Military and will withdraw by the deadline of November 20.
Furthermore, the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) has also used PDF forces to seize and control military bases and towns of the Myanmar Military in Kachin State and Sagaing Region.
However, military and political observers point out that if the KIA, which is reportedly in secret contact with the Myanmar Military for peace talks, reaches an agreement, the position of the PDFs could change significantly.
