CNI News
11 November 2025
The Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA) is reportedly closer than the Arakan Army (AA) to reaching an understanding with the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), according to Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), who spoke to CNI News.
He said that among the Brotherhood Alliance forces in northern Myanmar — the Kokang (MNDAA), Ta’ang (TNLA), and Arakan (AA) armies — the Myanmar military has already held meetings and signed a ceasefire agreement with the Kokang and Ta’ang forces, through Chinese mediation. However, it may still take some time before the military can meet with the AA.
Colonel Khun Okkar explained, “The AA is currently quite distant from China — China’s pressure doesn’t reach them. They also have openings toward India and Bangladesh, so it may take a bit longer for them. It might happen only after the elections. For the north, this ceasefire agreement is important because it helps open transportation routes and makes it possible for elections to be held in northern regions. The ceasefire, which came into effect at midnight on October 29, is a positive sign. Villages and towns are safer now, with far fewer casualties and destruction. If one side stops bombing and the other side withdraws from towns, things will improve. Gradually, other groups may follow the same path. For instance, the KIO might come first — in comparison with the AA, the KIO is closer to an agreement, while the AA might take a little longer.”
Some TNLA leaders
Military and political analysts have also suggested that there is a likelihood of meetings between the KIA and the Myanmar military during November and December, ahead of the first phase of the upcoming elections scheduled for December 28, 2025.
In northern Shan State, although the Myanmar military and the Kokang group (MNDAA) have already ceased hostilities, clashes were still taking place with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
Later, through China’s mediation, a meeting was held in Kunming between October 27 and 28, 2025, between a delegation led by Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo of the Myanmar military and a TNLA delegation led by Lt-Gen Tar Jock Jar.
This ninth round of negotiations resulted in both sides signing a ceasefire agreement to take effect from October 29. TNLA announced that its forces would withdraw from Mogok and Momeik townships in accordance with the agreement.
At present, the situation in northern Myanmar is relatively calm, and the military may now shift its operations to central regions of the country for election security, Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News.
Some MNDAA leaders
He said,“For now, the north is quiet. The army can conduct operations in the central regions — Magway, Sagaing, and Mandalay. These areas still have administrative and defense authorities, and various groups exist, some of which have influence and public support. There are also local tensions between authorities and the population. For election security, the military may redirect its operations toward those areas.”
After ceasefire deals with the Kokang (MNDAA) and Ta’ang (TNLA) forces, the Arakan Army (AA) announced on October 31 that airstrikes had intensified in some parts of Rakhine State.
Earlier, on July 31, 2025, Myanmar’s military government declared a 90-day state of emergency across 63 townships nationwide, extended for another 90 days beyond October 31.
This extension included Mogok and Momeik, where the TNLA had agreed to withdraw under the new ceasefire. Authorities stated that martial law powers would continue to be exercised in those areas under the Commander-in-Chief’s authority.
