CNI News
10 November 2025
The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a Muslim armed group, recently declared that it would attack, seize, and govern Rakhine State, sparking analysis and debate among military and political observers about the reasons behind such a statement.
ARSA made this claim during its 9th anniversary gathering, asserting that it would take control of Rakhine State through military action.
According to Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), the statement was a morale-boosting message aimed at mobilizing public support, rather than a realistic military objective.
“Whether it’s an armed group or a political party, they all need public support.
Armed groups that have popular backing and political parties supported by the public are the ones that can represent their people’s political aspirations. So, whether it’s ARSA or another Bengali-related political organization, they have their own communities.
AA leaders
They’re trying to organize and inspire them with hope — that’s just part of the usual mobilization process. So ARSA’s statement is also in that vein.”, he said.
Reports from local Rakhine media stated that ARSA has built new training camps near the Bangladesh border, close to Ukhia and Naikhongchari, north of Maungdaw Township.
Currently, ARSA has been launching sporadic attacks on AA (Arakan Army) bases along the Bangladesh border and is accused of assaulting, abducting, and killing civilians in Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung townships, according to local sources.
Military and political analysts believe that if ARSA were ever to seize territory in Rakhine, Maungdaw and Buthidaung would be the only possible areas.
However, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that it is impossible for ARSA to actually capture and govern Rakhine State.
“Anyone can make grand claims. But even survival is already difficult for them. Their relations with AA aren’t good either, and AA keeps winning successive victories. I don’t think it’s realistic — they’re just talking.”, she said.
Currently, the AA is prioritizing operations in northern Maungdaw, setting up bases, patrols, and offensives along the Mayu mountain range to drive ARSA out of the area.
A scene from inside Rakhine State
Political analyst U Kyi Myint commented that AA’s approach to handling ARSA was too soft and cautious.
“They’re being overly gentle. The responsible authorities will have to deal with it. I don’t want to say much, but I even wrote on Facebook that we won’t cooperate with infiltrators — we’ll only ally with those who share the same culture as the Rakhine people. That’s all I want to say.”, he said.
In the AA-controlled northern parts of Rakhine State, such as Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung, ARSA attacks have increased significantly throughout 2025.
Between May and October, around 50 civilians were killed in ARSA assaults, according to local Rakhine news agencies.
Observers note that ARSA has become more active than before in 2025, primarily targeting civilians rather than engaging in major military confrontations.
Military and political analysts are also questioning whether the AA can effectively contain ARSA’s expanding operations in northern Rakhine State.
