CNI News
26 September 2025
Neighboring countries may pressure ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to attend the 10th anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), said Dr. Aye Maung, chair of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), speaking to CNI News.
According to him, members of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC)—such as the ULA/AA, UWSA, MNDAA, and TNLA—along with the KNU, could attend the event. He noted that relevant neighboring countries like China, India, and Thailand may exert pressure to ensure their attendance.
“At the talks, the seven FPNCC groups could participate. China can push them to attend. India can pressure EAOs along its border. Thailand can also pressure EAOs based on its border. Originally, 10 groups signed the NCA, but over time that number fell to five. Now the NSPNC is planning to hold a large-scale ceremony for the 10th anniversary of the NCA. I believe it will be successful. From there, discussions could yield some results, providing a direction for the country’s future. Leaders of armed groups may also provide answers. Among the FPNCC, ULA/AA’s deputy leader Dr. Nyo Tun Aung may come. The Wa (UWSA), Kokang (MNDAA), Mong La, and TNLA could also attend. We’ll see who will come to the 10th anniversary ceremony.”, said Dr. Aye Maung.
Leaders of UWSA and MNDAA
The NCA will reach its 10th anniversary on October 15, 2025. Analysts say this anniversary will be marked with more grandeur than in previous years, and that ethnic armed group leaders who took part in the drafting of the NCA will be invited. Top leaders from neighboring countries may also be invited, making the ceremony potentially a boost for Myanmar to break out of its negative cycle, said Dr. Aye Maung.
“The 10th anniversary could be huge. International leaders can be invited. Even the UN Secretary-General António Guterres could be invited. The Indian Prime Minister could be invited. Chinese President Xi Jinping could be invited, or if not him, Wang Yi could attend. Chinese negotiators like Deng Xijun, or India’s national security advisers, could also come. ASEAN leaders may also be invited. This anniversary could give Myanmar momentum to escape its current downward spiral.”, he added.
Former KNU leader Mutu Say Poe with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
Back in August 2011, under President Thein Sein’s government, a ceasefire offer was extended, and talks were held with 21 ethnic armed groups. In 2011–2012, bilateral state- and Union-level ceasefire agreements were signed with 14 groups. Formal negotiations on the NCA began in 2013, and a draft was reached in August 2015.
On October 15, 2015, the KNU, RCSS, ALP, DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, PNLO, CNF, and ABSDF signed the NCA, followed in February 2018 by the NMSP and LDU. Together, these 10 signatories formed the Peace Process Steering Team (PPST) and engaged in negotiations for many years.
However, after 2021, internal disagreements arose. The KNU, CNF, and ABSDF declared the NCA void and decided to take up arms against the military, continuing clashes up to the present.
