CNI News
22 September 2025
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) may be losing in its campaign to capture Bhamo, Kachin State, and military and political analysts say the Myanmar Tatmadaw must avoid nurturing rebel groups.
In Bhamo, where KIA and allied People’s Defense Force (PDF) troops had been attempting to seize control, the Myanmar Tatmadaw regained the upper hand and retook some positions.
Regarding the battle, U Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News:
“In the Bhamo battle, the KIA will gradually lose. The Tatmadaw also needs to avoid nurturing rebels. If they aim to eliminate them, only complete eradication will ensure national peace and development. When rebels become weak, they offer peace talks. The government often follows along. But when they regain strength, they fight again, causing suffering to the people. Only when war no longer occurs can the country truly pursue development. Starting from Bhamo, the government should work to end the KIA.”
As the KIA began retreating from Bhamo, they extended peace talk offers to the military, and both sides are currently negotiating possible discussions.
KIA, together with the Arakan Army (AA) and PDF, launched their offensive to capture Bhamo in December 2024, seizing Bhamo Airport, Bhamo University, and several Tatmadaw bases.
KIA–PDF joint forces
From December 2024 to July 2025, the Tatmadaw defended for eight months. Then, starting August 4, 2025, the Tatmadaw launched a counter-offensive with seven battalion columns.
Between August 4 and September 11, 2025, the military announced that it had recaptured KIA-AA-PDF–controlled headquarters, neighborhoods, villages, and supply bases around Bhamo.
Bhamo is a strategically important city to the border trade on the eastern bank of the Irrawaddy River. The trade routes include:
Bhamo–Tazai–Myothit–Laiza, Bhamo–Momauk–Tazai–Laiza, Bhamo–Momauk–Lweje.
These were the key routes that KIA-AA-PDF sought to control.
While showing the Myanmar Tatmadaw launched a counter-offensive inside Bhamo
Although many people believe the Tatmadaw intentionally allows rebels to exist, political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that in reality, the military does not “nurture” them.
“People think the Tatmadaw nurtures rebels, but in reality, they don’t — and they can’t. Even the U.S. didn’t nurture the Taliban. The fact is, in such vast territory, groups can hide, blend in with the population, and wage guerrilla warfare. So it’s not the military nurturing them. However, to completely eliminate guerrilla warfare, political inclusion is necessary. That’s why elections are held, provisions for proportional representation and self-administration are made, and the constitution is amended. Over time, these can gradually bring such groups into politics and weaken them.”, he said.
From December 4, 2024, to September 11, 2025, there were 16 major battles and 490 smaller clashes between the KIA-AA-PDF and the Tatmadaw.
The Tatmadaw claimed to have recovered 163 rebel bodies, 178 assorted weapons, and related equipment, though some government troops also lost their lives.
Currently, since September 15, 2025, the KIA and PDFs have been launching a new offensive to seize Banmauk, a key gateway town into Kachin State from the upper Sagaing Region.
