CNI News
11 September 2025
China will not permit the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to become stronger than it already is, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China–Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News.
She explained that the KIA, as an armed group operating in Kachin State, is geographically limited and will focus mainly on Kachin regional affairs. Because of its proximity to China, it would not be easy for the KIA to further strengthen itself.
“China has made it very clear already. It told the Wa and the Kokang not to support the KIA. So the KIA will have to survive and strengthen itself on its own. It will keep working to consolidate and entrench itself in its territory. But I don’t think it can go much further than that. The KIA can only focus on becoming strong and stable in Kachin State. China will not allow it to expand beyond that. Although China doesn’t have as much influence over the KIA as it does over the Wa or Kokang, the KIA territory borders China. Trade and all other activities are interconnected there, so there will naturally be some limited support. But making the KIA significantly stronger is not easy. They will have to focus on consolidating power in the area they already control. The KIA’s main struggle will remain centered on the Kachin State—pursuing federalism and self-determination.”, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.
KIA Deputy Commander-in-Chief Gun Maw meeting Chin Brotherhood leaders in Laiza
During July and August 2025, the KIA headquarters hosted meetings with Spring Revolution forces including the Chin Brotherhood (CB), the Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF), the Yaw Army, Myingyan PDF, NUG ministers, and Naga armed groups.
The KIA has also been providing training, weapons and ammunition, and shelter to revolutionary forces, and has supported joint operations in Sagaing Region and Kachin State.
At a time when three northern alliances are weakened under Chinese pressure, the KIA could become an increasingly central unifying force, said Colonel Khun Okka, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), speaking to CNI News.
KIA Deputy Commander-in-Chief Gun Maw meeting Yaw Army leaders in Laiza
“The KIA is a veteran organization with much experience. It has capable leaders. While it is fighting on the ground, at the same time it manages alliances, international relations, connections with Western countries, Europe, China, and Japan. It is an organization that can handle these matters effectively. That’s why the KIA doesn’t make extreme decisions—it maintains balance. This reflects its political maturity and prudence. So, at this time when northern groups are weak, the KIA could slowly become the main unifying force.”, he explained.
Sources close to the matter say that the KIA headquarters is currently hosting groups such as the Arakan Army (AA), Naga armed groups (ENDA/ENNO), NUG, NUCC, CNF, ABSDF, and PDF forces.
The KIA is also said to be in negotiations to meet with the Myanmar Tatmadaw. At the same time, with the election approaching, the KIA is gathering Spring Revolution forces and preparing both militarily and politically for the country’s shifting political landscape, according to those familiar with the situation.
