CNI News
19 July 2025
Military and political analysts are analyzing which areas the Myanmar military, which is currently launching offensives to some of the key areas of the lost territories, could prioritize and retake.
The Myanmar Tatmadaw leaders would have a plan for how to regain control of which areas, and the current trajectory could prioritize border trade routes, Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies director U Thein Htun Oo told CNI News.
“Based on the current path, reopening border trade along the Pyin Oo Lwin and Lashio routes and later regaining control of some important areas will be part of the ongoing plan. There will be Chinese intervention. China shares a long border with Myanmar. And for trade to resume, stability and peace are essential. So, China has to intervene in the negotiations. It was the same with Thailand in the past. Regardless of who it cooperates with, the Myanmar Tatmadaw must guarantee peace and security within the country. Where will the Tatmadaw start to stabilize? Where will the first, second, and third priorities be? They will be included in the areas that are strategically determined." he said.
The Chinese government is arranging talks between the Northern Alliance and the SAC, as it wants the border to remain peaceful and trade routes to reopen as soon as possible.
Negotiations between the Kokang Army (MNDAA) and the SAC were convenient, but talks with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) did not go well due to territorial demands, and they are scheduled to meet again in August.
The Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently conducting offensives mainly in the Ta’ang region and Bhamo, and battles could intensify in those areas, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News.
" The military council is launching offensives in Ta'ang region and Bhamo in the northern part of the country. Battles could intensify in these areas. I don't think they (SAC) can advance much in the south.I'm not sure whether they might control some territories around and in the Ta'ang region in the long run. "They have the advantage in airstrikes and weaponry," she said.
The Myanmar Tatmadaw announced that it had retaken control of Naung Cho town in northern Shan State, which had been occupied by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), on July 16, 2025, and that it had retaken control of Mobye town in Kayah State from the KNPP, KNDF, and PDF on July 6, 2025.
Military and political observers point out that the Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently using more air and drone attacks than ground forces in its offensive operations.
The Myanmar Tatmadaw is launcing a defensive operation to prevent the KIA from taking control of Bhamo. Military and political observers have indicated that the capture of Naung Cho in northern Shan State could pave the way for gradual offensives against Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Kutkai.
On the other hand, ethnic armed groups (EAOs) and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) previously succeeded in capturing towns within days, but now have been unable to do so for months.
Then, their fighting capabilities could decline until they could take years to capture towns, pointed out military and political analysts.
