CNI News

18 July 2025

The Myanmar Tatmadaw which has lost more than 90 towns has been carrying out more offensives since this mid-year, pointed out military and political analysts.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw announced that it had regained control of Naungcho town, which was occupied by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in northern Shan State, on July 16, 2025, and that it had retaken control of Mobye Town, Kayah State, from the KNPP, KNDF, and PDF on July 6, 2025.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw, which has been in power for more than 70 years and has lost territories, would not retreat easily in military operations, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an analyst on China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI News. 

" They (the Myanmar Tatmadaw) will try to regain control of the territories that thay have lost. They have many advantages. I don't think they will retreat easily. They have been ruling the country for more than 70 years. In comparison with us (revolutionary forces), they have lots of information and infrastructure. So, they can do it. We have not been fighting the military dictatorship just yesterday. The Spring Revolution has been taking about four or five years. In fact, we have been fighting since 7th July 1962. This time, this struggle is the most severe and it includes the entire public. But it's not easy to finish it quickly as we have expected." she said.

While Lt-Gen Naing Naing Oo had arrived in Naungcho after it had been retaken by the Tatmadaw

With elections set to begin by the end of this year,  the Myanmar Tatmadaw will likely retake lost territories as able as it can before the election, military and political analysts predict. 
They point out that the Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently using more air and drone attacks than ground forces in its offensive operations.

On July 16, the Myanmar Army sent several reinforcements to Naung Cho and retook the town through airstrikes and heavy artillery fire, the Myanmar Tatmadaw announced.

Since the Myanmar military is currently on the right track, it has regained military advantages, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News. 

While seeing the TNLA

“The Tatmadaw is an organization that guarantees the perpetuation of the country, peace and stability, and all of that, so it will have to restore the country to its original state. Now, the Tatmadaw was carrying out its duties, which were necessary for peace and security. In the past, the military did not engage effectively in military operations, but rather relied more on negotiation and political means. At that time, the revolutionary groups prioritized the military, while the Tatmadaw prioritized politics. So, the Tatmadaw had to lose its camps and territories. But now, the Tatmadaw is using two ways; one is politics and the other, military. It's been on the right track. That's why it's regained military advantages." he said.

Military and political analysts have predicted that because the Tatmadaw could retake control of Naungcho, it could continue its offensive against Kyaukme Town and then continue its offensive against Thibaw Town.

Military and political observers point out that the Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently conducting a defensive operation to prevent the city of Bhamo from falling into the hands of the KIA. 

Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) were previously able to seize towns within days, but later even though they took months to do so, they have not succeed. Military and political analysts point out that the fighting capabilities of EAOs and PDFs may decline until they could take years for their town-seizing battles.