CNI News

19 June 2025

Even though people local and abroad are saying that solution to Myanmar political crisis must be found through political dialogues, although the Myanmar Tatmadaw represents the SAC, questions have emerged who will discuss with the SAC. 

If the representation was not clear in discussion and negotiation, the situation could be complicated, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" We have had a policy since we signed the NCA. The agreement only reached from a dialogue that includes all the groups that should take part in can build mutual trust. And it's not easy to include the groups whose ambitions and backgrounds are different in the political dialogue. For example, ethnic groups have waged armed resistance for 70 years. Everyone knows what their attitudes are and what they want. Will the SAC negotiate and discuss with them first? For example, there are seven armed groups in the northern part and seven armed groups in the southern part. There are groups that go against them and at the same time they have allies. As armed groups that are scattered with a variety of names are not under an organization, there may be problems regarding the representation. If the representation is not clear, if who represents which territory is not clear, there may be more complications. Those who are included in the discussion must have a firm representation. On one hand, they must be able to guarantee and they must have the ability to realize what they have agreed. If the groups that have strong representation can take part in the dialogue, it will be convenient. Otherwise, if they don't have a strong representation, their participation in the dialogue won't be convenient." he said.

the ethnic armed groups' conference

ASEAN, the UN, the US, China, India and EU are urging to make a dialogue in order to solve the Myanmar political crisis. However, a discussion cannot be held between the Myanmar Tatmadaw/the SAC and opposition armed forces up to now and the representation has not been clear yet.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who served as the rotating chairman of ASEAN in 2022, visited Myanmar in January 2022 and met with SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to discuss ways to resolve the Myanmar issue, but there were objections. Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan National Front (ANF), told CNI News that despite Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's visit as the rotating chairman of ASEAN to discuss Myanmar, ASEAN was turning a blind eye to the political talks.

the Peace Talk 2025

“SAC,will go its own way. During Cambodia’s tenure as ASEAN’s rotating chairman, Cambodia visited and held talks. ASEAN is turning a blind eye to the political dialogue that will only work through such in-depth meetings. The first time they met, they looked for a 5-point consensus. There must be a lot of pressure from the US on their side. When considering both sides, the SAC will go its own way, and whatever ASEAN says, it will accept or reject. It will open the dialogue and a representative of ASEAN will come to meet. ASEAN can do what ASEAN should do, and if ASEAN cannot do it, it will have to approach to ASEAN+3. It doesn't seem to have done anything about Burmese politics. In other words, it only carried out to become a proxy war through the Burma Act that caused bloodshed.in Myanmar. There was no negotiation. Similarly, the UN can do nothing. It can do nothing in world wars, it is just a voice. The UN only shows its power to affect sovereignty, but it is not really capable of doing anything about the big countries. The influence of other powerful countries is directly involved in the Myanmar issue. Only if this influence can be reduced will ASEAN be able to return to the path it once took," he said.

In Myanmar, on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar Tatmadaw ousted the NLD government, accusing it of attempting to form a government without resolving the 2020 election voter list dispute, and declared a state of emergency and the SAC has been ruling the country. 

While seeing those protesting for democracy

Then, some NLD leaders and parliamentarians, along with pro-democracy forces, armed 
groups, and other political parties, are joining forces to launch an armed revolution to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC.

The armed resistance is being carried out jointly by the National Unity Government (NUG), the Committee for the Representation of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH),
the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), PDFs, LPDFs, KIA, AA, MNDAA, TNLA,CNF, KNU, KNPP, KNDF, and other armed groups.

Therefore, if Myanmar's political crisis is to be discussed and resolved, the SAC can represent the Myanmar Tatmadaw, but the question is who can represent the opposition groups that will discuss with the SAC?