CNI Article
16 March 2025
Author By Chit Min Tun
Because of political change that started on 1 February 2021, Myanmar is seen to be deteriorating on all sides. Even though an answer on how to cure the situation has been looking for, it has not been found yet.
Meanwhile, we are also seeing Myanmar's neighbors getting involved in some way from different perspectives. So let's analyze the situation in Myanmar and its neighboring countries.
China
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By reason of Operation-1027 and Zha pian, China penetrated deep into Myanmar. China demanded that Myanmar enact a private security law to protect Chinese companies, Chinese employees, and Chinese investment projects, and has begun trying to protect itself.
After this, China became deeply involved in Myanmar's politics and peace process. Foreign countries were allowed to be as witnesses or observer status only under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
While seeing the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese PM Li Chang
In the peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the three northern groups, China entered the talks as a mediator. Even though a certain side didn't want to discuss, if China told it to discuss, it had to discuss.
India
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Some Indian MPs have discussed making the Myanmar territories bordering Mizoram and Manipur States in the northeastern part of India become part of India and they started discussing with armed groups.
Indian senior officials officially expressed plans to merge Chin State, Myanmar into Mizoram State, India as well as to merge Tamu-Kabaw Valley (Kalay-Mingin), Myanmar into Manipur State, India.
The Chief Minister of Mizoram State expressed to merge Chin State into Mizoram State during his trip to the US.
Chief Minister of Mizoram State, India was participating as a witness in the unification agreement between the two Chin rebel groups in Myanmar
More than 2,000 foreigners entered the Indian state of Mizoram. Those people were missing and had entered Myanmar. And then, they were training armed groups in the Chin mountain range, said Chief Minister of Mizoram State, Lalduhoma in the Mizoram State Assembly session on 10 March 2025.
Bangladesh
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A big white country came to discuss with her the establishment of a Christian state near Myanmar and Bangladesh, said former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina on 26 May 2024. This statement was reported by the Indian news outlet The Print on May 28, 2024.
The main reason why she was overthrown by protests was that she didn't accept the discussion by a big white country that wanted to establish a Christian country, former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina.
And then, she sought political asylum in India. After Sheikh Hasina was ousted, the pro-American Muhammad Yunus led an interim government. Meanwhile, reports have also emerged that Pakistani intelligence is providing guerrilla training to Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.
At the same time the ARSA, the RSO and the ARA joint forces waged battles to liberate Rathedaung, Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships in Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh.
While seeing with former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
Given these circumstances, I think India is also keeping a close eye on the possibility of a state emerging near the three countries of Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India.
Therefore, it is possible that some territories in Myanmar are being organized to merge with India, and it is also possible that India is taking a precautionary approach.
Thailand
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Thailand has provided shelter to the revolutionary elements from Myanmar , while at the same time, it is dealing with those who have seized state power. Thailand is carrying out to develop its economy by obtaining cheap human resources from Myanmar and operating factories and workshops in Thailand, including manufacturing.
The influence of the Thai government on the forces controlling some areas near the Thai-Myanmar border became apparent during the crackdown on Zha pian (telegram fraud).
While seeing the SAC Chairman and the Thai PM Paetongtarn
With almost all China-Myanmar border trade routes closed, Thai goods are mainly entering Myanmar. So China may be worried that Thailand would take its maket shares from Myanmar. Compared to the international market, the Myanmar market is not that big for China.
Myanmar
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In Myanmar, the UWSA and the NDAA have attained confederation status, so foreign countries even consider them small countries within Myanmar.
Because ethnic groups would have thoughts beyond federalism by 2025, a federal union should be established as soon as possible, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw of the Kachin Independence Army during his meeting with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in 2028.
If the situation ever arose to establish a nation, the Palaung people must prepare in advance to be ready, said general secretary of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw on 18 August 2022.
" If this country could not establish a federal union, small countries could emerged. The Palaung people should think about it thoroughly. We need to prepare thoroughly. When this country could be established as a federal union, we will be included as a state and need to make efforts to defend our nationalities. Or if a federal union can't be established because of geopolitics or world politics or because the revolutions are gaining momentum, small countries could emerge. If so, we need to make preparations in order that we can build our own country." said Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw.
While seeing leaders from the TNLA, the AA and the MNDAA
Chairman and Commander in Chief of the Arakan Army (AA) Maj-Gen Tun Myat Naing has said that the AA wanted the confederation status at least and it could think beyond that status if necessary. These are the positions and attitudes of EAOs that have not yet signed the NCA. It's necessary to watch the positions and attitudes of the NCA signatories as well.
"The seven NCA signatories would have to administer their territories with the self-administrative system of self-determination. They would have to carry out services including administration, security, economy, education, healthcare and livelihood in their regions. A federal union must be established step by step. It's necessary to carry out in accordance with the principle 'Do the same tasks together, and separate the different tasks'", chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State, General Yawd Serk in the meeting of the 7 NCA signatories from 17th to 19th March, 2024.
While political parties and the NSPNC were meeting and discussing
Surveys indicate that the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as more than 90 townships. It is said that the peace processes are being played as a political game without certainty. As long as peace processes are not successful, the people are still facing a variety of troubles.
Above-mentioned situations are taking place in Myanmar and its neighbors. If the situation cannot be tackled, Myanmar can collapse and lead to a failed state.
If Myanmar has become a failed state, it could take 20 to 30 years so as to be able to reconstruct the country or democratic restoration processes can take 20-30 years as well, which experts explained this based on their studies of failed democracies.
How are all the stakeholders in Myanmar going to resolve these problems? How will they find a way out?
