CNI News

10 March 2025

If talks between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar Tatmadaw took place, the talks would not succeed if the Tatmadaw did not accept the Rakhine people's right to self-determination and self-administration, chairman of the Mon State Federal Council, Nai Mon Sai told CNI News.

The AA launched offensives in Rakhine State on 13th November 2023 and it has been able to seize control of 14 townships and the West Command. And then, domestic problems would be resolve through political means, reported the AA on 29th December, 2024.

It was possible that AA was only talking about the path of dialogue due to some pressure; the talks would not succeed if the Myanmar Tatmadaw did not recognize the right to self-determination and self-governance, said Nai Mon Sai.

While seeing the AA

" The AA possibly said that as his methods and techniques were prepared in advance. And it might be because of China's pressure as well. Peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA might take place. We can't say whether the talks can be successful or not. Mainly, if Rakhine people's self-determination and self-administration were not recognized by the military council and China, the discussion would not be successful, I think." he said.

Although the AA has announced that it will resolve the problems through political means, it is launching offensives to Pathein, Yegyi and Tharbaung Townships in Ayeyarwady Region that are adjacent with Rakhine Yoma.

If the AA discussed with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, good results would not produced from the discussion, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

While seeing a crossroads in Rakhine State

" I don't think good results would not be produced even if the AA discussed with the Myanmar Tatmadaw. They are still treating us from the upper hand. In fact, they don't have the upper hand in the EAO territories. Their control on the ground has been greatly weakened, except for air strikes and long-range fire from heavy weapons. The AA may hold meetings with the military council or it may  hold meetings through some other medium sometime in the future." he said.

The AA could meet and discuss with the Myanmar Tatmadaw in China in March with China's brokered engagement, according to those close to both sides. The AA wants the confederation at least and it has the intensions to build Rakhine Country at most.

The door to peace still has been opened; but because armed organizations making attempts to gain power in the territories they have captured, the Tatmadaw would have to continue to wage the war, said the SAC Chairman.