CNI Interview

5 March 2025

The State Administration Council and political parties are making attempts to hold elections in order to overcome the political crisis in Myanmar that emerged after February 1, 2021. 

Although the SAC said that it would hold elections in 2025, it didn't express the exact date when elections would be held. So, it is anybody's guess whether elections could be held or not.

Some people pointed out that elections could worsen Myanmar's political crisis rather than they could resolve the crisis. CNI News contacted and interviewed U Sai Nyunt Lwin, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) regarding the above-mentioned situations.

While seeing political parties and the SAC Chairman

CNI News: Some people or organizations want elections to be held. If elections were held, three powers that one person only has maintained must be divided. Others think that the political crisis could get worse if elections were held. Is there a form of election that can resolve all of these issues?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Now preparations have been made in 100 or 110 townships. In practice, how many townships could elections be held in? If elections were held, there would be security problems. Security for the election is a concern. 

Some consider that three powers must be divided after elections. Only one person wouldn't be able to maintain three powers anymore. So, the situation could be better than now. On the contrary, others think that elections cannot be held in the entire country. If elections would be held in the territories only controlled by the Tatmadaw, it wouldn't be just, they think. In my opinion, political dialogues are firstly needed. If elections are held in accordance with the consent reached from political dialogues, many problems will have been resolved.

CNI News: What kind of election would be possible if the election were held according to the agreement reached through political discussions?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin:  It could be an all-inclusive election. Now, there are not many opponents, almost none. Now, it seems that only people who support one side are making preparations for the election.

CNI News: Without political discussions first, if elections were held, could the civilian government that would come to power keep the political situation or could it worsen the situation?

While the anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: The problem is that elections can't be held all over the country. If elections can be held in only one-third of the country's area, it cannot cover the entire country. So, iyt could be difficult to recognize the government that would come to power through elections.

CNI News: Well then, the SAC should make preparations to enable multi-parties to run elections.

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Of course, it has to be like that. The SAC might find it difficult. But it should try hard.

CNI News: According to 2008, there are problems that cannot be solved. EAOs want to discuss only after the 2008 constitution is abolished. But because the SAC has maintained the 2008 constitution, the peace process has not progressed as it should. How should this be fixed?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Actually, they have different ideas. We have to iron out the differences. According to the 2008 constitution, the Tatmadaw is allowed to grip many powers, which EAOs don't like. The Tatmadaw wants to maintain the 2008 constitution. We must iron out the differences of opinion.

CNI News: What reforms should both sides make to achieve peace?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Both sides need to negotiate and discuss. Even if they can't discuss it directly, I think they should discuss it through a third group, like ASEAN or the United Nations.

CNI News: What's the role of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in the current Myanmar politics.

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Because Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in prison at present, her role is nothing. But her supporters want her to be released. They want to do this to get strength. But it's impossible for the SAC to do so.

CNI News: Where do you think the current revolutionary scene in Myanmar is heading?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: The political situation in Myanmar is now at its worst. Especially the people are facing food shortage problems. If we talk about the people's desire, they want the civil war to be finished quickly. If possible, they want everything to be convenient.

While seeing leaders of the Northern Alliance

CNI News: Myanmar is currently on the verge of collapse. In this situation, how do we manage to prevent the country from being a failed state?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Stakeholders need to negotiate. If it's not convenient to do so, ours may be a failed state. The country may disintegrate. In any case, all the stakeholders should re-think about it. Because there are resentment, hatred and desires for revenge, it's a very bad situation.

CNI News: If you had to describe how to make the public understand the state of a failed state, what would it look like?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: The major powers are gradually taking over many territories, we can say that the country could disintegrate. A member of the public earns 4,800 kyats a day. So, a household gets into trouble a lot. Organizations and parties are different.

CNI News: Territories have arisen among EAOs after a coup d'état in 2021. How severe can these be?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin:  Some EAOs consider that the territories they have captured are their own. These will be problematic a lot. These things may be in northern Shan State, southern Shan State, Kachin State, Sagaing Region, and Rakhine State. 

The Bamar people are mixed with other ethnic groups. If an EAO says that the territories it has captured belong to its people only, the problems are not over and will continue for a long time. We need to look at the entire Myanmar as a whole."