CNI Articles
28 January 2025
Wars have been breaking out in the northern part of Myanmar since under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Khi until that led by the SAC.
China has been brokering in order to stop these battles and hold peace talks up to now.
When the roles and positions of the three northern allies and China's role regarding these battles were analyzed, unique positions of themselves were found.
Three northern allies jointly attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and attended peace talks together. They didn't accept if one of them was only invited to peace talks. They often jointly announced the ceasefire. In the same way, the announcements were jointly made.
In the political conflict that erupted after the military seized power in the following of overthrowing the NLD government on 1st February 2021, saying that the NLD led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, if you study the policies of the three Northern Alliances and China, you will find that they are unique.
After the NLD government was overthrown, NLD leaders, members of the Hluttaw pro-democracy activists and artists changed from the street politics to armed revolution.
While seeing leaders from the TNLA, the MNDAA and the AA
And then, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) launched Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023 to regain control of the Kokang Special Region-1 that it lost control of the region in 2009 and attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw and captured many towns in northern Shan State.
The Arakan Army (AA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA), the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the MDY PDFs and the PDFs attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the operation. The TNLA led and waged the 2nd wave of Operation-1027 in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region on 25th June 2024 and Shan-Man Operation was launched at the same time.
During Operation-1027, the MNDAA Laukkai, Kon Kyan, Phaungsai, Chin Shwe Haw, Theinni, Monko and Kyukote including the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw while the TNLA captured Mogok, Momeik, Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, Nansang, Mangtong, Namtu, Mong Ngor, Kutkai, Thibaw and Namkham. In the same way, the MDY-PDF also captured Madaya, Thabeikkyin and Sintku. Moreover, the AA has captured Buthidaung, Rathedaung, Mrauk U, Myebon, Rambre, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Maungdaw, Taung Goat, Minbya, Pauktaw, Thandwe, Gwa and Ann Townships in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa Township in Chin State.
Besides the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has captured townships where trade is being conducted including China-Myanmar border trade gates in Kachin State.
Because the Myanmar Tatmadaw had to be retreating militarily, China was worried. Meanwhile, because online Fraud (Zha Pian), illegal businesses were widespread in Myanmar, China has become deeply involved in Myanmar's affairs.
While seeing former joint statement by three northern allies
So, China demanded the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw to crack down the Zha Pian, but they didn't tackle it effectively. That is why, three northern allies showed the strategy to combat the Zha Pian to China and launched town capturing battles.
China supported arms and ammunition to the three northern allies for Operation-1027, said diplomats local and abroad as well as armed fighters.
The three northern allies made preparations to extend their operations from northern Shan State, Rakhine State to Naypyidaw, the center of power for the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.
However, China considered Myanmar could fall apart because there was no force that could control the central authority. So, it brought Myanmar back onto the negotiating track.
The Myanmar Tatmadaw, the SAC, and the three northern allies could not overcome China's will and they had to hold discussions.
There is one thing unusual. The three northern allies usually worked together on any issue under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but under the government led by the SAC, they have changed their policy to individual performance.
For example, the three northern allies don't release joint statements anymore regarding ceasefire, political discussion, peace talks brokered by China, protection of China's projects and investments but individually only.
While seeing Chinese PM and the Chairman of the SAC
In the same way, Myanmar government and the Myanmar Tatmadaw often allowed foreign countries to take part in the peace process as observers in the past, but have allowed China's representatives to attend in the discussions between the SAC and three northern allies.
So, questions whether war in northern Myanmar has been China's game have emerged. The policy that Myanmar citizens only must solve their domestic affairs has to be following China's game, which is food for thought.
Whether stakeholders will allow China as its game in order that the war in northern Myanmar and Myanmar political crisis can be overcome or can change it into their game must be watched.
Moreover, in shaping the future of Myanmar, will Myanmar become the future country shaped whether by China or by Myanmar citizens? It must be watched.
