CNI News

20 January 2025

Because the chairman of the State Administration Council had said repeatedly that the election would be held this year, a political dialogue should be held, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News. 

According to the current situation, although it did not seem that a dialogue would emerge, if the election was surely held, before the election, a dialogue should be held, he said.

"Right now, we still can't see any signs to hold a dialogue. But many people including international community have urged to hold a dialogue before the election if the election is certainly held. Naypyidaw must accept it. If all the stakeholders accept it, it's likely to hold a dialogue." said U Khun Sai.

At China's brokered engagement, the SAC and the MNDAA reportedly discussed for the second time in China on 16th January. 

While seeing political parties

In discussion on 15th December 2024 for the first time, the matters relating to removing the MNDAA troops from Lashio, border trade and releasing prisoners of war were discussed and the discussion was broken.

An organization or country that could make a brokered engagement was needed and China was influential in Myanmar's political landscape, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

"It's difficult for the two organizations fighting against each other to talk. Meanwhile, an organization or country that can make a brokered engagement. The most likely is China that has influence on both sides. Its interests is related to both sides. China is playing both sides. It's worth considering if it negotiates, then it will come up with a solution." said U Myo Kyaw.

While seeing the UEC and political parties

There are considerations that 2025 could be the year which starts searching for a way to reach a decision.

Because the SAC was not able to conduct a great political dialogue and create good results during the past four years, it is hoped that political dialogues will emerge this year.

On the other hand, the SAC might stop renewal of the state of emergency in May, 2025 and hold the election in September or October or November. 

And then the SAC might hand over the power to the winning party in April, 2026, estimated diplomats from local and abroad.